Tom, we live on Canford Heath. What’s remarkable is that we had nothing from the Tories before last Summer. Not even during the local elections last Spring.

Local Election results in Purbeck saw the Lib Dems gain one seat in this constituency in Wareham. They gained two across purbeck knocking the Tories from overall control

The mid dorset part of these results (rest were from south dorset)

LYTCHETT MATRAVERS: No change
COLVEY Martyn (LD) 785 (ELECTED)
CROSS David BRENTON Alexandra (LD) 715.
Michael (Con) 729 (ELECTED)
GIBB Colin Frank (Con) 692.

ST MARTIN WARD: Lib Dem hold.
EZZARD Beryl Rita (LD) 563 (ELECTED)
THOMAS Jane (Con) 438

WAREHAM WARD: Lib Dem gain.
ANDERSON Roy (Con) 915
CRITCHLEY Keith William Thomas (LD) 1,245 (ELECTED)

LYTCHETT MINSTER AND UPTON EAST WARD: Lib Dem hold.
STARR Wendy Margaret (LD) 692 (ELECTED)
WILLIAMS Simon Graham (Con), 509

LYTCHETT MINSTER AND UPTON WEST WARD: Con hold.
CADE Ruth Rosemary (Lab) 50 HOWLETT Mark Andrew (LD) 391 JOHNS Paul Francis (Con) 829 votes (ELECTED) ST MARTIN WARD: Lib Dem hold.

The Lib dems increased their vote across 4 of the purbeck wards up this time, gaining one and nearly gaining Lytchett Matravers. The number of Conservative Councillors across the whole of Mid Dorset has now fallen from 3 to 2, with Lib Dems up 1 to 33. (4 of them in County divisions)

I guess they didn’t put many leaflets in Purbeck.

Actually, the results here saw the Lib Dem vote dropping in comparison to both 2006/7 and 2005. The high water mark for the Tories in Purbeck was 2004.

The Tories seem to have run a very comprehensive campaign this time, better than last year I would say. I understand the only place they didn’t put out much literature was Wareham Town. Certainly, here in Upton there was a lot of activity from both parties.

A comparison can be made using the County results from 2005. The Lytchetts comprise Lytchett Minster, Upton and Lytchett Matravers. Wareham comprises Wareham Town and St Martin.

2005 County Con Lib Dem Lab

The Lytchetts 2578 3351 0
Wareham 1781 2863 0

Total: 4359 6214 0 10573
41.23% 58.77% 0.00%

2007 (06 for Lytchett Matravers)
Con Lib Dem Lab/Ind

Lytchett Matravers 739 796
Lytchett Minster &
Upton East 483 778
Lytchett Minster &
Upton West 720 734
St Martin 333 568 93
Wareham Town 754 1243

Total 3029 4119 93
41.83% 56.88% 1.28%
Change: +0.60% -1.89% +1.28%

2008
Con Lib Dem Lab/Ind

Lytchett Matravers 729 785 50
Lytchett Minster &
Upton East 509 692
Lytchett Minster &
Upton West 829 391 50
St Martin 438 563
Wareham Town 915 1245

Total 3420 3675 100
47.53% 51.08% 1.39%
Change(from 2005):+6.30% -7.69% +1.39%
Change(from 2007):+5.70% -5.80% +0.10%

I must admit Im quite sceptical about the Tories chances here at the next GE. I would have thought the Libdem majority would slip a bit next time maybe down to about 2000 or so but as the council results show, the Libdems aren’t declining here and Annette Brooke did very well here last time which suggests a strong personal vote. The Tories seemed to have picked a very good candidate but I think they’ll have to work this one very hard indeed.

I would have thought Dorset South would offer a more realistic hope of a gain. Although again I think to a certain extent there’s probably quite a bit of personal vote here for Jim Knight.

Tory strategists would better off throwing everything into this one and leaving Mid Dorset/Poole N well alone.

Surely Labour could only win (or hold onto) a seat in Dorset if they doing pretty well nationally, whereas for the libdems, this area is much more their territory.

I posted this earlier but it doesn’t seem to have stayed on the site.

To summarize though, if you scrutinize the figures from Thursday I would say the Conservatives have some real hope here.

A direct comparison can be made between the wards up for grabs on May 1st and results from 2005’s County elections held on the same day as the General Election.

In 2005 the result was

Lib Dem 6214 58.8%
Conservative 4359 41.2%

The 2008 result shows a considerable swing in vote share

Lib Dem 3676 51.1%
Conservative 3420 47.5%

That would appear to suggest the Lib Dems down 7.7% and the Conservatives up 6.3% (about 1.4% went to Labour candidates where there weren’t any in 2005)

If Annette Brooke stands she’ll win in my opinion, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than some people are suggesting.

A direct comparison could be made, but in my opinion it wouldn’t be accurate.

1. – Results from ocal elections held on the same day as a general election usually differ wildly to the norm since so many people who don’t vote in locals go out for the general you don’t get the same voter demographic.

2 - You are comparing county council divisions with totally different boundaries to district divisions.

3 - The candidates involved: The Lib Dem County seats up in 2005 were won in Upton and Wareham by high profile local characters. With large personal votes stemming from decades working in their respective local areas, this makes the County results even less use in comparing with the latest district ones considering the para below.

The district results saw three totally new Lib Dem candidates with no established personal vote stand in Upton W and Lytchett Matravers. Predictably the Lib Dems lost Upton W (the most conservative ward in the constituency with a well known local Tory) and split the seats in Lytchett Matravers.

So in summary:
There was a close fight in Lytchett Matravers, but the Lib Dem vote increased on the 2006 district election despite their Councillor elected in 2006 standing down. Comparing year on year Purbeck DC results is far more use if you want to do comparisons but again results in this Council differ wildly when well established Councillors are up for election.

In 2006 the Tories threw the kitchen sink at Lytchett Matravers and Wareham and still managed to lose, despite sending down MP’s from across the south-west and putting out around 7 pieces of literature in the election period . They put a lot of effort in again in these wards this year, but since they don’t campaign all year round in Mid Dorset and their Councillors in Purbeck are largely geriatric, all the effort from the previous year was lost.

To put the Wareham result in context the Conservative former Mayor and district Councillor lost by 300 votes to a Lib Dem candidate he beat 4 years ago.

In summary, if you take the spin or inaccurate comparisons out of it and factor in the local political history, the results actually show a trend of Lib dem entrenchment. This is despite a new Tory PPC who has worked the area harder than it has been since the general election.

This is a no hope seat for the Tories and Annette won’t be retiring any time soon.

A very good attempt at spinning it for your preferred party Gavin. I think Annette will hold it too, if she stands, and local rumours have increased this year that she is considering not doing so.

I have to disagree with your analysis slightly.

1. Differential in vote as a consequence of turnout may effect results. That might well be the case here , but in an area with a high local election turnout the differential isn’t that different. The turnout across Purbeck was 45% vs 65% for the general election (and therefore the County Poll). The differential wasn’t therefore that great, and in Lytchett Matravers it approached 50%.

2. With the exception of Morden (electorate 200ish?) which is included in the Lytchett Matravers district seat, but not in the Lytchetts County Division, the boundaries are about the same.

Morden had the local parish council chairman as the Lib Dem candidate, she lost, but undoubtedly pulled in a strong vote for her party in her parish. I’d therefore suspect that taking the votes for the exact divisions as a comparitor the figures would be even better for the Tories.

3. Given the prominence of the ‘high profile local characters’ who are our County Councillors along with the MP on the Lib Dem leaflets this year I would have thought that there could have been no doubt about who was who and to whom these people wanted us to give our district votes.

The ‘new’ candidates in Upton W and Lytchett Matravers included a chap who had stood before in the former and in the latter were the chairpeople of both parish councils.

The Lib Dem victor in Wareham had been a councillor there before and had swapped seats with the Tory he beat on at least one occasion in the past.

It would appear to me that the Lib Dems were the ones who ‘threw the kitchen sink’ at the elections this year. The Tories did too, we certainly had as much Conservative literature as Lib Dems.

The point I made above was that if I were the Tory PPC I wouldn’t be too unhappy with the result. His party pulled out their vote very well last Thursday, even if it wasn’t enough to keep them in control of the Council.

It’s certainly a tough seat for the Tories, but not a no hoper. As a Lib Dem supporter, if you’re thinking that it is I would warn against complacency as the Tories have upped their game considerably.