Mid Dorset and North Poole
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 23605 (48.8%)
Conservative: 18336 (37.9%)
Labour: 4659 (9.6%)
Other: 1733 (3.6%)
Majority: 5270 (10.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16518 (36.6%)
Labour: 5221 (11.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22000 (48.7%)
UKIP: 1420 (3.1%)
Majority: 5482 (12.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17974 (41.1%)
Labour: 6765 (15.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 18358 (42%)
UKIP: 621 (1.4%)
Majority: 384 (0.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20632 (40.7%)
Labour: 8014 (15.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19951 (39.3%)
Referendum: 2136 (4.2%)
Majority: 681 (1.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Annette Brooke(Lib Dem) born 1947. Educated at Romford County Technical School and the LSE. Former teacher and Open University tutor. Former Poole councillor and Lib Dem group leader on Poole council from 2000-2001. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001. Spokesman on home affairs 2001-2004, children 2004-2005, education since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Nick King (Conservative) born 1965. Bournemouth borough councillor since 2005.
Chris Thompson (Labour) 
Dave Evans (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80723
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 23.8%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.9%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 18.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.9%
Owner-Occupied: 82.9%
Social Housing: 9.7% (Council: 4.2%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.6%
Same odds as Devon North.
I was inclined to think based on the figures that this would be LD hold.
However that may not be so in view of the local knowledge provided above which is greatly appreciated.
Devon North is more secure I reckon.
Have those Captcha things gawn….?
I think this seat has to winnable for the Conservatives.
I’m not (necessarily) predicting that as a result as it has a significant LD majority, and moreover, would need more local knowledge about how the parties are seen – haven’t been to this area for quite a long time.
That it isn’t natural Lib Dem territory and partly an urban seat could make it less secure (although there is recent evidence that that could mean the opposite, and they are more at risk in rural seats).
Wareham, however, has been Lib Dem at local level (usually) for quite a long time – I think as early as the late 80s.
I think this could go either way.
I would have thought – knowling little about the local circumstances – that this is exactly the type of seat the Tories must win to have an overall majority?
I think that’s a very apt description (although it’s still possible they could pick up somewhere else instead).
I can imagine this recounting on the Friday daytime.
One has to remember that this is a seat which stayed Conservative in 1997, although not since. It isn’t a very rural seat at all, really being more outer suburban in character. Most of it is fought for tooth & nail between LD & Con with few real stronghold areas for either party. I think also very close.
Annette Brooke is now on Twitter, at @AnnetteBrookeMP
Annette Brooke has some catching up to do then. Her opponent has been tweeting @nickking for ages, and from the ground he certainly seems to be out-campaigning her. This is going to be a hard fought seat and could well be a pivotal seat in the forthcoming election.