Mid Dorset and North Poole
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20831 (44.52%)
Labour: 2748 (5.87%)
Liberal Democrat: 21100 (45.1%)
UKIP: 2109 (4.51%)
Majority: 269 (0.58%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 23605 (48.8%)
Conservative: 18336 (37.9%)
Labour: 4659 (9.6%)
Other: 1733 (3.6%)
Majority: 5270 (10.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16518 (36.6%)
Labour: 5221 (11.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 22000 (48.7%)
UKIP: 1420 (3.1%)
Majority: 5482 (12.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 17974 (41.1%)
Labour: 6765 (15.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 18358 (42%)
UKIP: 621 (1.4%)
Majority: 384 (0.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20632 (40.7%)
Labour: 8014 (15.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 19951 (39.3%)
Referendum: 2136 (4.2%)
Majority: 681 (1.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Annette Brooke(Liberal Democrat) born 1947. Educated at Romford County Technical School and the LSE. Former teacher and Open University tutor. Former Poole councillor and Lib Dem group leader on Poole council from 2000-2001. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001. Spokesman on home affairs 2001-2004, children 2004-2005, education since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Nick King (Conservative) born 1965. Bournemouth borough councillor since 2005.
Darren Brown (Labour) Annette Brooke(Liberal Democrat) born 1947. Educated at Romford County Technical School and the LSE. Former teacher and Open University tutor. Former Poole councillor and Lib Dem group leader on Poole council from 2000-2001. First elected as MP for Mid Dorset and North Poole in 2001. Spokesman on home affairs 2001-2004, children 2004-2005, education since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Dave Evans (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80723
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 23.8%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.9%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 18.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.9%
Owner-Occupied: 82.9%
Social Housing: 9.7% (Council: 4.2%, Housing Ass.: 5.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.6%
“LibDem MPs can be like cans of worms. Once they win, they are very hard to shift. ”
In what conceivable way is that similar to a can of worms?!?
‘I think Julia Goldsworthy lost her seat only because of the boundary changes.’
I think that might be right but it’s quite a peverse set of circumstasnces which sees the Tories benefiiting from the removal of the relatively attractive and affluent Falmouth from the seat, making the seat more industrial, working class and poor, especially given that Mr Eustice’s views on the poor make milton friedman look charitable
BT Says…
Whilst there’s almost certainly some of that going on, I think that a lot of people do switch straight from Labour to Tory and back again without going through Lib-Dems as a middle ground as I think there is still a significant number of people who see it as a choice of one or the other without considering a third option. Looking at Julia Goldsworthy’s case – where she actually increased her share of the vote, but a statistical swing from Labour to the Tories gave the Tories the seat. Whilst some Labour voters undoubtedly shifted Lib-Dem and some Lib-Dem voters shifted Tory, I also suspect that there was a large number of Labour voters who went straight to the Tories as they were fed-up with the current government and wanted a change.
Sir Norfolk have you ever tried to shift a can of worms?
I disagree with votedave about Shitley Williams holding Crosby wiothout the boundary changes. I remember seeing her ranting about this after she lost but its just a case of her being a sore loser. Roy Jenkins had far worse boundary changes to contend with in 1983 and he held on, so did David Owen
But Sir Norfolk, I think it would depend on precisely which wards from this seat went into which neighbouring seats. The fact is that in many seats, Labour will now be starting to move back towards 2nd place next time. So even LibDem-Tory marginal wards would help increase the Tory majorities in neighbouring seats over Labour.
I don’t see the relevance of the can of worms simily though. I’ve always said that Lib Dems are like foot and mouth. Following an outbreak, you have to steralise the area and take precautions to stop it from spreading
Shaun surely Sir Norfolk’s point was that in all but Dorset South Labour are unlikley to be in second place and therefore the addition of these wards to seats where the LDs are in second place will not necessarily increase the Tory majority but could reduce it. Apart from Dorset South the seats which donated wards to this constituency on its creation and which would be likely to receive them back if it were abolished were Dorset North, Poole and Bournemouth West. There is no prospect of Labour moving into second place in any of those seats.
What has been the boundary history of Wareham and of Wimborne Minster since 1832? I believe they were both transferred to this constituency this year
No Wareham has been in this seat since its creation in 1997. Before that it was in Dorset South since 1918. Wimborne was in Dorset North until this year where it had been since 1950. It was in Dorset East from 1885 to 1950 and Wareham was also in that seat from 1885 to 1918.
The East Dorset seat in its last contest in 1945 came close to electing Charles Fletcher-Cooke as its Labour MP. He not long after defected to the Conservatives, serving for many years as MP for Darwen until that seat ceased to exist in 1983.