The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Middlesbrough

2010 Results:
Conservative: 6283 (18.78%)
Labour: 15351 (45.89%)
Liberal Democrat: 6662 (19.91%)
BNP: 1954 (5.84%)
UKIP: 1236 (3.69%)
Independent: 1969 (5.89%)
Majority: 8689 (25.98%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18497 (57.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5954 (18.6%)
Conservative: 5259 (16.4%)
Other: 2311 (7.2%)
Majority: 12543 (39.2%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 5263 (16.4%)
Labour: 18562 (57.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5995 (18.7%)
BNP: 819 (2.5%)
UKIP: 768 (2.4%)
Other: 733 (2.3%)
Majority: 12567 (39.1%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 6453 (19.1%)
Labour: 22783 (67.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3512 (10.4%)
Other: 969 (2.9%)
Majority: 16330 (48.4%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 7907 (17.2%)
Labour: 32925 (71.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3934 (8.5%)
Referendum: 1331 (2.9%)
Majority: 25018 (54.3%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Stuart Bell(Labour) (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitJohn Walsh (Conservative) TV and film producer.
portraitStuart Bell(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
portraitChris Foote-Wood (Liberal Democrat)
portraitRobert Parker (UKIP)
portraitMichael Ferguson (BNP)
portraitJoan McTigue (Independent)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 88957
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 25%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 5.4%
White: 91.6%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 6.4%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 74.3%
Muslim: 6%
Full time students: 6.8%
Graduates 16-74: 12.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.6%
Owner-Occupied: 61.7%
Social Housing: 26.3% (Council: 19.4%, Housing Ass.: 6.8%)
Privately Rented: 8.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

230 Responses to “Middlesbrough”

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  1. Lab 61.9%
    Con 12.4%
    UKIP 12.2%
    LD 5.4%
    BNP 4.9%
    TUSC 2.2%
    Peace 0.5%
    ND 0.4%

  2. Labour, Andy McDonald 54.8%
    UKIP, Richard Elvin 19.7%
    Conservative, Ben Houchen 11.8%
    BNP, Peter Foreman 4.9%
    Liberal Democrat, George Selmer 4.8%
    Trade Unionist & Socialist, John Malcolm 2.2%
    Peace, Imdad Hussain 1.2%
    no description, Mark Heslehurst 0.6%

  3. Labour have a good chance for a big increase in their vote here. My guess:

    Lab: 61%
    Con: 16%
    UKIP: 10%
    LD: 6%
    BNP: 5%
    Others: 2%

  4. Lab 10201 (60.5%)
    UKIP 1990 (11.8%)
    Lib Dem 1672 ( 9.9%)
    Con 1063 ( 6.3%)
    Peace Party 1060 ( 6.3%)
    BNP 328 ( 1.9%)
    TUSC 277 ( 1.6%)
    Ind 275 ( 1.6%)

    Labour did much better here than the other seats. I’m surprised how well the LibDems and the Peace Party did. Respect might have been better off standing here than in Croydon North.

  5. In the sense that their vote share increase more than in Croydon it was a better result, but that is only in comparison with 2010. Taking a rather more historical perspective, in other words if you look at the results from 1997-2005 then in fact the result for Labour here was about par

  6. Obviously Middlesbrough isn’t Tory territory, but I’m rather surprised at quite how poorly they’ve done there. I didn’t expect the LDs to beat them so easily.

  7. Countless posters of a right-wing persuasion on here were convinced that the Tories were on for more than 10%- I knew for a fact they weren’t. And I was proved right.

  8. I know absolutely nothing about the Peace Party. I can only assume that their electorate is not that similar to Respect’s, but would welcome any information about them.

  9. It does seem a rather freak result- It may have been influenced by the fact that the candidate was a former member oLabour AMD I think he may have been a local councillor.

  10. Really dissapointed by the tory result here, dont understand why we got beaten by the dems and very nearly by the “peace party”

  11. Thanks for that link, but it doesn’t say much does it – are they in favour of unilateral nuclear disarmament for example? Perhaps Peace is just a name.

  12. They’re living in a dreamland by the look of it.

  13. It was a very bad result for the Tories here and in Rotherham as well. They did very well in Croydon North to hold up their vote and the fall in the vote share there was nowhere near as drastic as Middlesbrough or Rotherham. As for the Lib Dems, their best result was here and they’ll be pleased that they at least managed to save their deposit and avoid ending up in something embarrassing like fourth place or lower- Their placing in Rotherham was absolutely dreadful for them- To come eighth behind UKIP, BNP, Respect, the Tories, the English Democrats and an Independent is pretty humiliating. If there were to be another by-election in a similar seat in the near future, I could realistically see them doing even worse actually…

  14. Good result for Labour here, in line with my prediction. This is the kind of swing they need to be getting now in order to have a hope of winning a workable majority at the next general election.

    UKIP did very well, as they have elsewhere, while the Conservative performance was particularly poor. While it still seems likely that most of the votes lost to UKIP will return at the general election, the better UKIP do, the more chance there is that they will be seen as a serious challenger and retain some of these votes.

    The Lib Dems actually did better than I expected, although that still means losing more than half their votes. The BNP share slumped, as in most other recent elections, but the Peace Party were the surprise package.

    The Peace Party policies look like those which might come from certain sections of the Green Party. Here, in their first by-election, in an area which they’ve never contested, with a candidate who – although an experienced politician – is from Bradford, they held their deposit, thereby outperforming the Green’s experience candidate in Croydon, and other recent Green performances. Perhaps the Greens should pay attention to whatever the Peace Party did right here.

  15. The last time the Greens saved their deposit in a byelection was Norwich North in 2009. For some reason they’ve never done that well in by-elections.

  16. Well you could argue that the Greens are being smart, in focusing their attentions relentlessly on areas where they can win like Brighton and Norwich. UKIP’s more broad-brush strategy helps them in Euro elections but will never win them a parliamentary seat under the current electoral system.

    If a by-election came up in one of the Greens’ sweetest spots – say Norwich South, Holborn & St Pancras or Lewisham Deptford – my expectation is that they would challenge very strongly.

  17. I could picture a Green surge at.a.byelection in Cambridge, Hove and Brighton Kemptown.

  18. In Kemptown or Hove, they would face the same problem as in Norwich North – that they have no traction in the outlying wards away from the City.

    I think the Greens are biding their time. Their time will come in about 5 years’ time…..the left will rapidly get disillusioned with the Miliband government once it realises that it will have to cut spending just as hard as the Tories did. The Lib Dems will be totally discredited with the left due to the current coalition, and indeed they may even be in coalition with Miliband themselves and becoming yet more unpopular than now. So where will the disillusioned left votes go then…..the Greens I think.

  19. I hope to God we don’t see a Lab-Libition- Things would be even worse asthanthey are now..

  20. I would say it’s quite a high possibility.

  21. Forgive me for the very vague wording- I was coming home from work on the bus LOL!

  22. I don’t know what went wrong for the Tories here. They ought to have taken second place over the LDs.

  23. Am I right in saying you are a Conservative Andy?

  24. “I don’t know what went wrong for the Tories here. They ought to have taken second place over the LDs.”

    I wonder whether major job cuts by Tata Corus – announced during the election campaign – had any impact. Despite closing their blast furnaces in Redcar a few years ago, Corus still has a lot of downstream steel finishing operations in the area. I’m also surprised this wasn’t more of a factor in Rotherham, as Corus’s big engineering steels plant is located there.

  25. No I’m not supporting any particular party at the moment. I don’t know which party I’ll be voting for at the next election.

  26. I’m with you on that one mate. I don’t really see who has got the best policies- The problem is that it doesn’t really matter who gets in, they’ll still have to deal with the deficit and have to get it down.

    As you have mentioned in the past on here don’t you originally hail from Walsall or somewhere like that? Is there more Labour or Tory strength round by where you are?

  27. I had guessed Andy as a kind of soft Tory / orange Lib Dem waverer. In some ways similar to myself, although I would be extremely unlikely to vote Lib Dem now.

    In these difficult times the centre ground is disappearing fast, and those who used to inhabit it are having to choose which side they want to go with. I have felt my own politics drifting rightwards of late….for others the opposite may be true as they feel more comfortable with clinging to Labour.

    I’m starting to think 2015 will be the most polarising election since 1983, with little more than a pin head for the centre to stand on.

  28. I found this a really quite awful Con result.
    Of course, Middlesbrough is a safe Labour seat and this was a by-election, and it isn’t unusual for a Government party to see support fall to very low levels,

    but the loss of 17,000 Labour votes from 1997 to 2010 (and indeed from 1992 aswell) did show a kind of more deep seated detachment from it’s traditional patterns which may have led to a slightly better Con performance over time – it’s far away from the “vibrancy” of other Labour seats.

    There are one or two Conservative leaning areas in this seat aswell – or were.
    I think Marton is in this seat rather than Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East.

  29. ‘I’m starting to think 2015 will be the most polarising election since 1983, with little more than a pin head for the centre to stand on.’

    Agree with this (although my own mother is a pro EU LD/Con floater).

    The irony is that Osborne and Balls both have little room for manouver on the economy.

    Middlesbrough was an ‘awful’ result for the tories as Teeside is not a tory electoral desert like S Yorkshire.

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