Comments on: Meon Valley

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 21:31:46 +0000

I can’t see Arbuthnot or Lewis retiring any time soon. Hitting 60 is nothing unusual for a Tory MP and rightly so.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 21:29:40 +0000

George Young is getting on a bit in NW Hampshire. He’s 70 in a few months time. I don’t know whether he still hankers after the Speakership. It might be a long wait.

By: John D

John D — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 21:05:41 +0000

Hmm… if Meon Valley is abolished, it could make things slightly tricky for George Hollingbery. There aren’t any obvious likely retirees amongst the immediately neighbouring Conservative MPs.

Further north there are two potential candidates for retirement at the next election: James Arbuthnot (North East Hampshire) and Sir George Young (North West Hampshire).

That would give some room for manoeuvre, but a selection battle amPongst sitting MPs may be in the offing.

Same situation if Romsey and Southampton North were abolished. Julian Lewis is a potential retiree at the next election (he’s actually older than James Arbuthnot)… but for some reason I don’t think he will step down next time. I think it more likely that he’ll want to try for another term after this one.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Thu, 03 Mar 2011 18:17:03 +0000

There must be a possibility this seat will be abolished after only one election since Hampshire needs to lose one seat in the coming boundary review. Another candidate might be the Romsey & Southampton North seat which has the lowest electorate in the county at 67,696.

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 09:13:36 +0000

I dont think the notional results were wrong, just that they flattered the Lib Dems because 42% of the electorate of this seat came from Winchester and therefore contained a large personal vote for Mark Oaten. Take that away and the ostensibly safe LD seat of Winchester itself went Tory so it isn’t surprising to see the LD vote fall away here too

By: Barnaby JL Marder

Barnaby JL Marder — Mon, 14 Jun 2010 08:39:51 +0000

Only just absorbed this one. This is a pretty stinking result for the LDs although it’s always possible that the psephologists weren’t quite right. This clearly now joins the ranks of safe Tory seats.

By: John D

John D — Sat, 08 May 2010 14:16:09 +0000

Tory majority… 12.000
56% of the vote
A similar LD to Con swing as occurred in Winchester.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Thu, 06 May 2010 14:11:22 +0000

Con hold, maj – 1750

By: Mr P Brown

Mr P Brown — Thu, 06 May 2010 01:22:54 +0000

Con by 3000-3500 in my book.

By: Local Voter

Local Voter — Wed, 05 May 2010 09:48:10 +0000

Very hard to call. The area tends to be Tory in the local elections. Many more Tory posters and signs, many of which have been (systematically?) vandalised. Tory vote will be solid – it all depends on how real / solid the Libdem support is. Suspect a narrow Tory win.