Meon Valley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 28818 (56.24%)
Labour: 3266 (6.37%)
Liberal Democrat: 16693 (32.58%)
UKIP: 1490 (2.91%)
English Democrat: 582 (1.14%)
Independent: 134 (0.26%)
Others: 255 (0.5%)
Majority: 12125 (23.66%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21652 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 19662 (40.9%)
Labour: 5167 (10.8%)
Other: 1554 (3.2%)
Majority: 1989 (4.1%)
New seat: geographically the majority of Meon Valley is formed from the large rural eastern part of the old Winchester seat, now joined by the southern half of the old East Hampshire seat, consisting mainly of the large village of Horndean and Waterlooville.
Profile: The eastern part of the constituency is more urban, being made of the town of Waterlooville, including the village of Cowplain and the Wecock Council estate, and the large semi-rural village of Horndean to its the North. The large western part is far more rural, consisting of picturesque countryside and small towns and villages including Bishops Waltham, Denmead, Droxford & Shedfield. With the exception of parts of Waterlooville it is an affluent and middle-class seat and will be a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal.
Current MP: George Hollingbery (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former stockbroker and Chairman of a chain of vets. Currently a property investor. Winchester councillor since 1999, Deputy leader since 2006. Contested Winchester in 2005.
George Hollingbery (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former stockbroker and Chairman of a chain of vets. Currently a property investor. Winchester councillor since 1999, Deputy leader since 2006. Contested Winchester in 2005.
Howard Linsley (Labour) born 1944, Huddersfield. Educated at the University of Hull. Training consultant. Former Hackney councillor. Contested Aldershot 2005.
Liz Leffman (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Christ`s Hospital School, Hereford and Leeds University. Formerly in the advertising and diary industry, she now runds a clothing and textile consultancy business. Contested Witney in 2005.
Steve Harris (UKIP)Pat Harris (English Democrat)
Graeme Quar (Independent) Educated at Sale County Grammar and Southampton University. Solicitor. Contested Stevenage for the Conservatives 2001.Sarah Coats (Animal Protection)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84135
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 22.1%
Born outside UK: 4.8%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.4%
Owner-Occupied: 81.5%
Social Housing: 10.2% (Council: 5.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
Iain Dale reports that comedian and TV/radio presenter Sandi Toksvig is considering seeking the Lib Dem nomination for Meon Valley.
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Meon Valley Lib Dems deny it.
The small size of the notional Tory majority in this seat is quite surprising. I would guess 1,989 is a bit of an underestimate.
I bring news of a third candidate for the new Meon Valley seat as reported in the Hampshire Chronicle (front page) and the Petersfield Post. Ex Tory PPC and Meon Valley resident, Graeme Quar, will fight this seat as an Independent.For further details visit http://www.meonvalleyindependent.org.uk You may post my biography with the other two declarants.
Doe this news alter your predicted majority?
“Doe this news alter your predicted majority?”
no, because 4.1% is not the predicted majority, but the estimation of how people would have voted in 2005 on these new boundaries.
One would assume ex-tory independents would harm the tories, but I doubt it.
In fact disaffected ex-tory candidates should gain the votes of disaffected ex-tories.
By definition, disaffected ex-tories are currently, not voting Tory.
For the last ten years, in places like this, they have voted LD.
Mr Quar will harm the LD vote.
I dont doubt the closeness of the notional result here as it is obviously based on a large number of voters here having voted in Winchester for an incumbent candidate. These are the votes that were cast but had Meon valley existed in 2005 it would not have had that incumbent LIb Dem and the Tory majority would likely have been much higher, as I expect it to be in 2009/20
Although I rate Liz Leffman as a candidate, I cannot seriously predict a Lib Dem win here as there are too many key defences in Hampshire and because of the Oaten effect.
Ironically, had Oaten not spectacularly self-destructed I think there is a better than 50/50 chance he would have stood for Meon Valley rather than Winchester and may very well have won.
I cant see why he would have wanted to do that, given a notional 8,000 majority in Winchester and a notional Tory lead here. He wouldnt have been able to count on incumbency in the majority of the seat which comes from Hampshire E. As you say the Lib Dems will have enough on their hands defending marginal seats in the county. Presumably the thinking was that Oaten would have ahd a reasonable chance of winning here whereas any other candidate would not, while Winchester would be assumed to be safe. That would have been one hell of a gamble for Oaten. And the assumption that Winchester could have been taken for granted with a candidate other than Oaten would be a dangerous one.
It may seem trivial but if I would think it must be nice to be the MP for somewhere like Winchester which has such a distingusihed history and universal name recognition. If I was MP for a seat like that I wouldnt want to trade it for being ‘MP for Meon Valley’, which most people have never heard of.
Because it would have maximised the chances of both Winchester and Meon Valley being Lib Dem, Pete. I think you underestimate politician’s mentality – many of them thrive on risk. As we now know, Oaten more than most(!)
Many more , when it comes to choosing constituencies, opt for the safer option when their constituency is divided in such a way. Hence Brian Mawhinney followed part of his Peterborough seat into the safe Cambs NW, David Mitchell in 1983 abandoned Basinigstoke for Hants NW, Shirley Williams abandoned Hitchen for Hertofrd & Stevenage in 1974… the list is almost endless. Only instance I can think of where a sitting MP has chosen the less safe succesor constiuency is William Benyon of Buckingham/Milton Keynes in 1983, but even that didnt involve a huge risk.
I take your point though that Mark Oaten is a bit of a special case when it comes to risk taking. And it might conceivably have worked. More likely he would still have lossed here, and Winchester would have been more vulnerable too.
I don’t now this area at all, but two things strike me as interesting;
1. As a LibDem, I have to accpet we are not as close in this seat as the headline figure suggests as its clearly the positive Oaten effect in 2005 that brings as as close as we appear.
2. No idea why a Tory independent sees it necessary to stand here; obviously something local going on, but why would LibDem supporters from last time vote for a candidate with no chance of winning? If ihis standing has any effect at all, it will be to limit the Tory winning margin, but not by much I’d suspect
With over 30% of the voters undecided, who presumably are dissatified with the three traditional parties , there is a large number ofvoters ready to consider an Independent candidate.The local press and community web sites are giving Graeme Quar the same opportunites as the Tory and Lib Dem candidates.
Why am I still not listed above as a Candidate ?
Because you talk about yourself in the third person?
Graeme, the moment one of us can get to Meon Valley’s Wiki article, we’ll put you on the candidate list there….
I back the Tories here to put a man on the Meon.
The objective for the LDs for the next GE here is probably less to actually win than to decontaminate themselves from Oaten, stop George Hollingberry getting too solid a cushion (and, if the LD vote really subsides, he could get over 50% and establish a solid majority in the 20% range) and build up a good second place for the election after next. But, personally, Oaten’s shenanigans probably killed off that chance. Hollingberry would have had a reasonable chance in Winchester had he stood there again against Tod.
Tory win with a small majority, 2,000 to 4,000.
The Tories should win unless the notionals are wrong for some reason. Although the notional calculations are a very good guide there are usually a handful of seats where it seems after the election that maybe they weren’t so accurate. That’s not a complaint since 95% of the notional results are usually excellent.
I can’t see this seat being that marginal.Probably a Con Maj of 15-20% 7-10K.
Blue flag all the way – Go George!
Which were Hampshire North East’s predecessor seats, and which seats have included Heckfield and Liphook? I ask that on here because the Hampshire North East page seems to have disappeared!
From memory Hampshire North East was formed in 1995 from parts of the former Aldershot and Hampshire East seats. I’ve misplaced my Rallings & Thrasher guide to the 1992 notional results which would give a definite answer.
Liphook I’m sure was in East Hampshire before 1997, and I suspect in Petersfield before 1983. However I could of course be wrong.
Liphook is quite mysterious,
also
on the border of Surrey, W Sussex and Hampshire.
I think you’re right Barnaby,
it used to be a division ward called Bramshott & Liphook, but I think that’s been changed.
The English Democrat candidate was removed from Wiki, without explanation, so I’ve reverted the blanking.
Cons Hold= 5,000 maj
Con Hold
Maj 2800
Con maj 6,500
Cons in for a surprise.
LD take with clear (enough) majority.
Con hold by about 1800
Depends how good the notional result is, which suspect ups the LD vote a bit as that will include voters for popular (at the time) incumbant Mark Oaten. If this suspision correct could by 4000K
Always difficult to predict a newly created seat. If I am forced, I shall predict Con hold by 1%!
I agree that it’s difficult. I will stick my neck out & say LD GAIN
Very hard to call. The area tends to be Tory in the local elections. Many more Tory posters and signs, many of which have been (systematically?) vandalised. Tory vote will be solid – it all depends on how real / solid the Libdem support is. Suspect a narrow Tory win.
Con by 3000-3500 in my book.
Con hold, maj – 1750
Tory majority… 12.000
56% of the vote
A similar LD to Con swing as occurred in Winchester.
Only just absorbed this one. This is a pretty stinking result for the LDs although it’s always possible that the psephologists weren’t quite right. This clearly now joins the ranks of safe Tory seats.
I dont think the notional results were wrong, just that they flattered the Lib Dems because 42% of the electorate of this seat came from Winchester and therefore contained a large personal vote for Mark Oaten. Take that away and the ostensibly safe LD seat of Winchester itself went Tory so it isn’t surprising to see the LD vote fall away here too
There must be a possibility this seat will be abolished after only one election since Hampshire needs to lose one seat in the coming boundary review. Another candidate might be the Romsey & Southampton North seat which has the lowest electorate in the county at 67,696.
Hmm… if Meon Valley is abolished, it could make things slightly tricky for George Hollingbery. There aren’t any obvious likely retirees amongst the immediately neighbouring Conservative MPs.
Further north there are two potential candidates for retirement at the next election: James Arbuthnot (North East Hampshire) and Sir George Young (North West Hampshire).
That would give some room for manoeuvre, but a selection battle amPongst sitting MPs may be in the offing.
Same situation if Romsey and Southampton North were abolished. Julian Lewis is a potential retiree at the next election (he’s actually older than James Arbuthnot)… but for some reason I don’t think he will step down next time. I think it more likely that he’ll want to try for another term after this one.
George Young is getting on a bit in NW Hampshire. He’s 70 in a few months time. I don’t know whether he still hankers after the Speakership. It might be a long wait.
I can’t see Arbuthnot or Lewis retiring any time soon. Hitting 60 is nothing unusual for a Tory MP and rightly so.