Meon Valley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 28818 (56.24%)
Labour: 3266 (6.37%)
Liberal Democrat: 16693 (32.58%)
UKIP: 1490 (2.91%)
English Democrat: 582 (1.14%)
Independent: 134 (0.26%)
Others: 255 (0.5%)
Majority: 12125 (23.66%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21652 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 19662 (40.9%)
Labour: 5167 (10.8%)
Other: 1554 (3.2%)
Majority: 1989 (4.1%)
New seat: geographically the majority of Meon Valley is formed from the large rural eastern part of the old Winchester seat, now joined by the southern half of the old East Hampshire seat, consisting mainly of the large village of Horndean and Waterlooville.
Profile: The eastern part of the constituency is more urban, being made of the town of Waterlooville, including the village of Cowplain and the Wecock Council estate, and the large semi-rural village of Horndean to its the North. The large western part is far more rural, consisting of picturesque countryside and small towns and villages including Bishops Waltham, Denmead, Droxford & Shedfield. With the exception of parts of Waterlooville it is an affluent and middle-class seat and will be a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal.
Current MP: George Hollingbery (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former stockbroker and Chairman of a chain of vets. Currently a property investor. Winchester councillor since 1999, Deputy leader since 2006. Contested Winchester in 2005.
George Hollingbery (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former stockbroker and Chairman of a chain of vets. Currently a property investor. Winchester councillor since 1999, Deputy leader since 2006. Contested Winchester in 2005.
Howard Linsley (Labour) born 1944, Huddersfield. Educated at the University of Hull. Training consultant. Former Hackney councillor. Contested Aldershot 2005.
Liz Leffman (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Christ`s Hospital School, Hereford and Leeds University. Formerly in the advertising and diary industry, she now runds a clothing and textile consultancy business. Contested Witney in 2005.
Steve Harris (UKIP)Pat Harris (English Democrat)
Graeme Quar (Independent) Educated at Sale County Grammar and Southampton University. Solicitor. Contested Stevenage for the Conservatives 2001.Sarah Coats (Animal Protection)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84135
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 22.1%
Born outside UK: 4.8%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.4%
Owner-Occupied: 81.5%
Social Housing: 10.2% (Council: 5.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
Con Hold
Maj 2800
Con maj 6,500
Cons in for a surprise.
LD take with clear (enough) majority.
Con hold by about 1800
Depends how good the notional result is, which suspect ups the LD vote a bit as that will include voters for popular (at the time) incumbant Mark Oaten. If this suspision correct could by 4000K
Always difficult to predict a newly created seat. If I am forced, I shall predict Con hold by 1%!
I agree that it’s difficult. I will stick my neck out & say LD GAIN
Very hard to call. The area tends to be Tory in the local elections. Many more Tory posters and signs, many of which have been (systematically?) vandalised. Tory vote will be solid – it all depends on how real / solid the Libdem support is. Suspect a narrow Tory win.
Con by 3000-3500 in my book.
Con hold, maj – 1750
Tory majority… 12.000
56% of the vote
A similar LD to Con swing as occurred in Winchester.
Only just absorbed this one. This is a pretty stinking result for the LDs although it’s always possible that the psephologists weren’t quite right. This clearly now joins the ranks of safe Tory seats.
I dont think the notional results were wrong, just that they flattered the Lib Dems because 42% of the electorate of this seat came from Winchester and therefore contained a large personal vote for Mark Oaten. Take that away and the ostensibly safe LD seat of Winchester itself went Tory so it isn’t surprising to see the LD vote fall away here too