Manchester Withington
2010 Results:
Conservative: 5005 (11.11%)
Labour: 18216 (40.45%)
Liberal Democrat: 20110 (44.66%)
UKIP: 698 (1.55%)
Green: 798 (1.77%)
Independent: 204 (0.45%)
Majority: 1894 (4.21%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 16140 (42.2%)
Labour: 15632 (40.8%)
Conservative: 3989 (10.4%)
Other: 2519 (6.6%)
Majority: 508 (1.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3919 (10.5%)
Labour: 15205 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15872 (42.4%)
Green: 1595 (4.3%)
UKIP: 424 (1.1%)
Other: 443 (1.2%)
Majority: 667 (1.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5349 (15.3%)
Labour: 19239 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7715 (22%)
Green: 1539 (4.4%)
Other: 1208 (3.4%)
Majority: 11524 (32.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8522 (19.4%)
Labour: 27103 (61.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6000 (13.6%)
Referendum: 1079 (2.5%)
Other: 1323 (3%)
Majority: 18581 (42.2%)
Boundary changes: Minimal – gains part of Chorlton from Manchester central.
Profile: A residential area in the southern part of Manchester, Withington was once a desirable middle class area area and a safe Conservative seat, but demographic changes have seen the area decline as much of the middle classes moved out into Cheshire and family homes were converted into rental flats for students. In 1987 Labour took the seat and by 2001 Keith Bradley had a five figure majority. The area still has a large student population but is also attracting increasing numbers of young professionals.
The Liberal Democrats have a strong base in local government here and the seat was a surprise Lib Dem gain in 2005, won from Labour with a 17% swing
Current MP: John Leech(Liberal Democrat) born 1971 . Educated at Manchester Grammar and Brunel university. Former McDonald`s manager and call centre worker for the RAC. Manchester councillor since 1998 and former deputy leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Manchester council (more information at They work for you)
Chris Green (Conservative) 
Lucy Powell (Labour) Former advisor to Glenda Jackson and Beverley Hughes, Director of Britain in Europe from 2004-5John Leech(Liberal Democrat) born 1971 . Educated at Manchester Grammar and Brunel university. Former McDonald`s manager and call centre worker for the RAC. Manchester councillor since 1998 and former deputy leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Manchester council (more information at They work for you)
Brian Candeland (Green) Educated at Loughborough University. IT professional. Contested Manchester Withington 1992, 2005.
Bob Gutfreund-Walmsley (UKIP) Bookseller and former university lecturer. Contested Manchester Withington 2005.
Yasmin Zalzala (Independent) Contested Manchester Withington 1997, 2001 for the Liberal Democrats, 2005 as an Independent.
Marcus Farmer (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86666
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 19.5%
Over 60: 15.9%
Born outside UK: 13.8%
White: 84.3%
Black: 2.7%
Asian: 8.2%
Mixed: 3.3%
Other: 1.5%
Christian: 58.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 1.1%
Muslim: 7.5%
Full time students: 16.4%
Graduates 16-74: 37.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.6%
Owner-Occupied: 48.6%
Social Housing: 25.7% (Council: 19.6%, Housing Ass.: 6.1%)
Privately Rented: 22.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
True they were surprises though you and I might have entertained hopes in Cannock and Edgbaston is explicable enough due to similar (but opposite) shifts in the relationship between class and voting. I think the kind of out of the blue results that ‘no-one’ saw coming though are less likely. Redcar for example would have been a totally wtf? moment in any previous election and one would have assumed it was a mistake when it flashed up, but given discussions here and the movement on the betting markets it was no surprise at all seeing that result even though I personally hadn’t thought they would quite do it.
In 1959 two of the five Liberal held seats were maintained (North Devon replaced Carmarthenshire – the 6th), due to the absence of a Conservative candidate.
Bolton West and Huddersfield West
If the government is a success, I wonder if there will be some kind of lose adhock electoral pact in the odd constituency such as; Manchester Withington, Chesterfield or East Dunbartonshire?
In 1959 two of the five Liberal held seats were maintained (North Devon replaced Carmarthenshire – the 6th), due to the absence of a Conservative candidate.
Bolton West and Huddersfield West
If the government is a success, I wonder if there will be some kind of lose adhock electoral pact in the odd constituency such as; Manchester Withington, Chesterfield or even East Dunbartonshire?
I think Lemsip losing Montyshire is one of the real surprises of this election (though even that was tipped on this site by one of our contributors). Maybe Con Gain Oxford W & Abingdon? Or the Tory gains in Cornwall that were somewhat unexpected?
yes I don’t think anyone foresaw Camborne/Redruth or Truro/Falmouth going. People got more excited about St Austell/Newquay. Did anyone predict Peter Robinson’s defeat, either?
ALSO – some Labour holds weren’t forecast by pretty much anyone. Edinburgh S, Rochdale, Birmingham Edgbaston, Hampstead/Kilburn, Liverpool Wavertree, Ochil & S Perthshire, arguably Wirral S were all seat where almost everyone agreed that Labour would lose – but all were held. The 1st 2 perhaps the most surprising.
The Conservative gains from the LibDems were all predicted from local election results with the exception of Winchester.
I made some very nice profits on Montgomeryshire, Harrogate and Cambourne.
I also made money from the LibDems holding St Austell – there was definately a case of dodgy notionals between Truro and St Austell as Mark Senior pointed out.
I do agree with Barnaby though in that those Labour holds were unexpected.
Richard, what led you to disregard the Lib Dem surge in the polls?
Richard, how much did you get for Harrogate if you don’t mind me asking? If you look at my post on the Harrogate I wrote on 9th July 2009 in the Harrogate forum, I predicted a Tory win. Unfortunately, I did not place I bet on it and I wish I did now!!!
I wish I had too as I was also confident (before the LD surge – imaginary as it turned out). I tended to shy away from the LD/Con marginals because they are notoriously unpredictable but did make a bit on some like Cheadle where the initial odds were way too generous on the LDs and did well on Cornwall SE where the odds on the Tories went out in the last week while I remained confident of a Tory victory there. Also the Lab/LD battleground where I bet on Labour in Oxford East and Chesterfield and Hampstead but lost on Norwich South.
Perhaps more generally, who would have predicted not one seat in the whole of Scotland changing hands?
Kieran
I didn’t – early in the Cleggasm I put money on the LibDems to win Grimsby 80/1, Doncaster Central 33/1 and Pendle 40/1 plus a few other seats which I can’t remember now.
Would have made big money if I’d been right.
Still did okay though from it as I was able to arb some bets by backing both Labour and LibDems fro a guaranteed profit in seats such as Newcastle N, Leyton, Hull N, Sheffield C.
Christian
I think I got the equivalent of 4/1 on the Conservatives at Betfair.
I got 7/1 at PP on the Conservatives in Montgomeryshire and 6/1 on the Conservatives in Cambourne.
By two worst results were betting on the Conservatives in Wells and on the LibDems in Winchester. Both constituencies went against the local election results.
But overall I made more than 55% profits which was a good return for only a few months betting.
Paul D – I think the answer to your ‘Scottish question’ is Anthony Wells.
Richard I put a bet on the LDs in Grimsby at 100/1 long before the election campaign (and hence the Clegg bounce) started – this may be why you only got odds of 80/1. Just had a feeling it could be the sort of seat to spring some surprise (plus local election results etc 100/.1 seemed good odds) – well it was the sort of seat I suppose – just not the seat. A few long shot bets like this cost me a bit of my margins but seemed worth losing a couple of quid given the possible returns
Interesting the Liberal Democrats and their court case agains Phil Woolas
The publication he has put out does seem extreme, but compared to what the Liberal Democrats said about me on the doorstep is quite tame.
I only wish someone would put what they were told in w riting so I can take it to solicitors
Yes Yasmin but that doesn’t usually happen. At the risk of sounding repetitive, the most outrageous comments made by Liberal workers in the Bermondsey by-election of 1983 were all off the record – they would have been actionable if they hadn’t been – and there are countless other such instances.
Why do u say this does not usually happen?
Couldn’t a labour supporter write then down?
Surely labour have an interest in seeing lib dem exposed?
I think this seat will probably go Labour again at some point, even if redrawn.
Yeah, labour want to change the subject because they do not have the courage to do the decent thing!
“only wish someone would put what they were told in w riting so I can take it to solicitors”
But they haven’t. So it cannot be proven.
I notice you never did get round to answering my direct questions from before polling day.
Yasmin – you’re flogging a dead horse. Please move on to something productive.
Yasmin has not showed a great deal of goodwill towards Labour and should not really complain if the party does not automatically follow her agenda. To describe the destiny of this seat as “changing the subject” is obsessive; on a polling site that is what people are actually supposed to be interested in. I of course would deplore any unfair or racist treatment of her but there are many, many other issues out there.
Why should I show any goodwill towards labour? In the area where I fought them, they fought dirty campaings using the race card blatantly. I have a written witness statement to that effect
To be fair however, the national party did act on the subject.
Yasmin, during the recent general election campaign there was only one person on this site who fought a dirty campaign, smearing their opponent with no supporting evidence, with what frankly had they been elected were actionable smears that would have seem them disqualified.
That person Yasmin was you.
So your criticism of Labour for dirty campaigning cuts very little ice as your own conduct has been very poor indeed in that regard.
Galloglass
I would take you more seriously if you would blog under your own name. That way your libellous comments could be taken to solicitors
As it is, I will treat them with the contempt that they deserve
Yasmin
Here are some quotes from you on this site. I hope that you have as much evidence for some of these as you demand from others.
“For enlightening information about the sitting Lib Dem MP for Withington, look on the blog John Leech Watch”
((What do you mean “enlightening”? Does this imply something untoward? For which there is proof?))
“The point about the referral to John Leech watch is that I have been putting things in about the MP’s activities”
((For which you have proof and evidince, no doubt))
“I was visited by the chairman of the constituency in 2002 and told my race is a liability and to move on and leave the way clear for a white man (John Leech) who has a large majority on council estates. He said this has been decided by senior Lib Dem councilors.”
“I am finding that the opposition (the Liberal Democrats and Labour) are putting out ugly untruthful roumers about me. They are of the vicious unkind nature. I have been to the police, and given names and address but it did not improve the situation. ”
((Oh, so it’s Labour as well, now? The evidence file you must have is doubtlessly bulging))
“Don’t forget, Hilary Stephenson was the Northwest regional campaign organiser when my ethnic cleansing was going through”
((“Ethnic cleansing”, eh? Do you have proof for this?))
You are playing with words doktorp
The quotes are self explanatory and do not need further elaboration unless you are exceptionally stupid
As I said before, you need to use your real name otherwise I will not take you seriously
If doktorb revealed his real name, you wouldn’t take him seriously (just as you posting under your real name does not assist with you being taken seriously)
I don’t know about Gallowglass (a drinker of Californian wine?) but doktorb’s identity is very easily uncoverable.
Oh la la la, the cavalary united against little yasmin!
I’m enjoying this!