2009 LD 702 C 393 Green 317 Lab 102 (by-election)
2008 C 679 LD 562 Lab 470 Green 326
2007 LD 773 C 454 Green 342 Lab 245 Ind 109
2006 LD656 C 460 Lab 301 Green 227 Ind 120
2004 Lab 693 LD 619 C 437 UKIP 197 Green 121

A couple of points:-
1. The Labour Councillor elected in 2004 attempted to get re-elected in 2008. It would appear he got sufficient personal votes, at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, to let the Conservatives win what these days would appear normally to be a LibDem seat.
2. The Green Prospective Parliamentary Candidate, Stuart Jeffrey, was the Green candidate in the recent Fant by-election, and has been the Green candidate for the Fant ward on several previous occasions. Whilst he lost 9 votes in the by-election as opposed to 2008, when he also stood, Stuart Jeffrey appears able to attract personal votes.

Clearly it is disastrous for Labour that they should only be able to get 102 votes in a ward in which they had a councillor until 2008. But this reflects the precipitous fall of Labour over Kent generally, as reflected by their 2 County Councillors, neither of them for seats anywhere near Maidstone. Frankly, my impresssion is that people in Kent are ceasing even to think about voting Labour, for instance because they have practically nobody to put that party’s local case in the media (and one suspects that several of the local MPs have effectively given up their political activities, as opposed to casework).

Given the state of affairs described in the previous paragraph, I expect the LibDems to come well ahead of Labour in Maidstone, even if their performance nationally is lacklustre. Electoral Calculus predicts that the LibDems will come second, but with just less than 20% of the vote. For local reasons, I expect the LibDems to do considerably better than that, although they are unlikely to get near to the Tories given the current state of national opinion.

The Greens ought to save their deposit with something to spare.

Anthony does not list a UKIP candidate as in place for this seat. This is perhaps surprising as, not least becuase of their very good Euroelection performances in Kent, UKIP would, like the Greens, be expected to save their deposit. On the Euroelection results, UKIP could even challenge the LibDems for second place, but as in the past UKIP have performed much better at European than Westminster level I think this level of performance is in practice unlikely.

Labour will probably come third, but there is perhaps a 5% chance they could come fourth or fifth.

The Tories should be safe next time. But notice that in 1997 even Anne Widdicombe, with her high personal profile, only got 44.1%, with the opposition vote almost equally split between LibDems and Labour. If a Conservative government runs into electoral trouble, and perhaps loses votes to minor right-wing parties as well as the LibDems, with Labour nowhere, the Tories could have considerable trouble holding Maidstone at the election after next.

I’m more concerned about the loss to Labour in Wednesbury-although it was much closer than this and neither ward is in a particualrly marginals constituency.

Actually come to think of it, I think that Wednesbury South was a somewhat unusual Tory gain at the time as well. I suppose given the fantastic results we’ve had in local elections over the last few years, a few losses of the more surprising wards should be expected.

Fant Ward, Maidstone BC. Lib Dem gain from Con.

Lib Dem 702, Conservative 393, Green 317, Labour 102.

(2008 result Con 679 LibDem 562 Lab 470 Green 326.

I have Anyway, yes, she is. For example

here and here

I’ve never actually heard her say anything on it.

Well I think she’s wrong.

They chose Martin, not because he was the best man for the job, but because they were stuck in class war mode, so liked the idea of putting a formerly working class, Catholic, Sottish Labour MP in the chair.
And because they chose him for these reasons (and not because he was the best man for the job), he turned out to be a complete disaster.

And it appears they have not learned from their mistake, as they are apparently wanting to put Bercow in the chair simply to put two fingers up at the Tories.

For these reasons I find it difficult not to think of all this in party terms.