Maidstone and the Weald
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23491 (48.01%)
Labour: 4769 (9.75%)
Liberal Democrat: 17602 (35.98%)
UKIP: 1637 (3.35%)
Green: 655 (1.34%)
Christian: 131 (0.27%)
Others: 643 (1.31%)
Majority: 5889 (12.03%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 22118 (50.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 10324 (23.6%)
Labour: 9992 (22.8%)
Other: 1342 (3.1%)
Majority: 11793 (26.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 25670 (52.7%)
Labour: 10814 (22.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 10808 (22.2%)
UKIP: 1463 (3%)
Majority: 14856 (30.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22621 (49.6%)
Labour: 12303 (27%)
Liberal Democrat: 9064 (19.9%)
UKIP: 978 (2.1%)
Other: 611 (1.3%)
Majority: 10318 (22.6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23657 (44.1%)
Labour: 14054 (26.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 11986 (22.4%)
Referendum: 1998 (3.7%)
Other: 1913 (3.6%)
Majority: 9603 (17.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Helen Grant (Conservative) born London. Educated at the University of Hull. Solicitor and owner of a Croydon legal practice.
Helen Grant (Conservative) born London. Educated at the University of Hull. Solicitor and owner of a Croydon legal practice. 
Rav Seeruthun (Labour) born Redhill. General Practioner.
Peter Carroll (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Manchester University. Former research scientist and RAF officer, now owns a haulage company. Shepway councillor. Contested Folkestone and Hythe 2001, 2005. Was a leading figure in 2008 fuel protests. 
Stuart Jeffery (Green) Qualified nurse and NHS manager.
Gareth Kendal (UKIP)Heidi Simmonds (Christian Party) Gary Butler (National Front)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88839
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 20.9%
Born outside UK: 6.1%
White: 96.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1.3%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 75.4%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 3%
Graduates 16-74: 19.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.9%
Owner-Occupied: 77.4%
Social Housing: 11.1% (Council: 7%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 8.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
Con Maj 9000
Cut this maj down a bit because of loss of Widecombe factor.. I don’t agree with her on almost 100% of issue but I believe she was a respected MP here
Con will lose at lot of ground here. Con Maj of 6,500 (swing to Lib Dem)
Conservative majority 4500
I think the fact Anne Widdiecombe has gone will impact on the nature of the majority, I think tory but with a much reduced majority because the newbie isn’t local and areas like this prefer local mp’s.
I also fail to see how someone with a practice in Croydon what she knows about a county town?
CON HOLD
C maj cut to 5,889.
Hopefully Helen Grant can prove her doubters wrong next time, a la Bernie Grant in 1992.
Wasn’t too far out here.
Big shoes to step into for Helen Grant. She, and Julian Brazier nearby in Canterbury who also suffered a big swing to LD, need to work hard to ensure they’re not the next Eastbournes.
Generally speaking, though, after all the Cleggmania, it was a bad night for the LibDems. We held onto Bournemouth West and I never expected we’d win Harrogate and Knaresbough and Montgomery.
Also a poor night for the LDs in Cornwall – but better in Somerset.
Helen Grant sat next to John Bercow yesterday before he was re-elected Speaker, anyone see her on telly? In fact he seemed to be surrounded by new colleagues
Yes spotted her Harry. Was trying to spot lots of new MPs from their UK Polling pictures but I think some had been air brushed before being down loaded, though thought Helen looked very smart.
“2Helen Grant sat next to John Bercow yesterday before he was re-elected Speaker, anyone see her on telly? In fact he seemed to be surrounded by new colleagues”
yes, I’ve noticed her. Margot James was sitting on the other side of Bercow
I think the majority will go back up again here.
Anne Widdecombe did much better than the party average over all the elections she stood,
and Solihull is a lesson never to be forgotten.
Also, Labour should do somewhat better now the LDs are now in coalition with the Tories.
‘Helen Grant sat next to John Bercow yesterday before he was re-elected Speaker, anyone see her on telly?’
I take it she wasn’t the woman who screamed ‘no’ when the brilliant Sir Peter Tapsell asked MPs if they wanted to re-elect the speaker
‘I take it she wasn’t the woman who screamed ‘no’ when the brilliant Sir Peter Tapsell asked MPs if they wanted to re-elect the speaker’
No that was probably (and perhaps predictably) Nadine Dorries!! If Grant had done that when she was sitting next to Bercow he’d probably have jumped out of his skin!!
Maidstone was obviously in one constituency until 1997, but since then has the town centre been in this seat, or in Faversham and Mid Kent (which takes in some of the Maidstone wards)? And were there further boundary changes in the Maidstone area in 2010?
Maidstone town wasn’t in one constituency until 1997. It was until 1983 when the East and North wards were removed to the new Kent Mid seat. Those ward swere returned in 1997 but other wards from the town were taken out into Faversham & Kent Mid. The 2010 boundary changes have not altered the situation in the town (except to take account of any ward boundary changes)
“In fact he seemed to be surrounded by new colleagues”
yes, I’ve noticed her. Margot James was sitting on the other side of Bercow”
So non-white woman on one side of Bercow and a lesbian on the other.
Anyone else suspect that was contrived by the Conservative leadership to show how ‘inclusive’ they are?
Helen Grant’s position as MP for this seat is contrived for that very purpose
‘It was until 1983 when the East and North wards were removed to the new Kent Mid seat. Those ward swere returned in 1997 but other wards from the town were taken out into Faversham & Kent Mid’
Do the East and North wards, or their present-day equivalents if any, cover Maidstone town centre?
‘Anyone else suspect that was contrived by the Conservative leadership to show how ‘inclusive’ they are?’
Interesting theory…
Parts of the centre. The station is in North ward and county Hall in East ward, but most of the centre is in High Street ward (as one would expect)
“Helen Grant’s position as MP for this seat is contrived for that very purpose”
Indeed.
If a white male Labour supporter suddenly decided he was now a Conservative supporter I suspect he wouldn’t be made a candidate for a safe seat.
I was a little surprised that this seat swung so heavily to the Lib Dems. Some swing was always likely following Widdecombe’s retirement, but I suppose this seat is now semi-marginal.
Of course, given how marginals this seat was in 1983, perhaps its not so surprising, and we should remember that the Tory vote fell only slightly here from Widdecombe’s high watermark. The big swing seems to be tactical support from Labour towards the Lib Dems.
I have to say, having now failed to win this seat, I find it very highly unlikely that the Lib Dems will advance further (particularly now they are in coalition with the Tories). I expect the Lib Dem vote to collapse back to Labour come the next election and Helen Grant will no doubt be enjoying 10,000 majorities before too long.
The LibDems have been doing well here in local elections in recent years.
They probably picked up a few extra votes from Labour on racial grounds too.
I agree with Shaun’s points:
Comparing this result to 1983 offers some consolation (although I accept they were different boundaries). The majority is similar, though the Tory vote share a couple of percent lower, the Lib Dems a tiny bit lower, and Labour is also lower… so the ‘Others’ have taken from all three main parties, to varying degrees.
Clearly there was significant transfer of the ’05 Labour vote to the Lib Dems this time round, but I suspect Labour will improve (nationally) in vote share at the next election and that may be reflected here to some extent.
By the way, did the BNP not stand here because the National Front was standing?
Interesting to see the Lib Dem candidate was a leading figure in the Fuel protests. What is Lib Dem policy on fuel tax?
This wasn’t too bad a result for Cons,
It probably should have gone up a bit if they’d achieved a 7 or 8 point plus nationally
but as it fell short of that sort of result
and
as Anne Widdecombe did above the party average in all the elections from 1987 to 2005, it needs to be judged in context.
I expect the majority will go up somewhat, particularly if Labour regains a bit of support from the LDs,
unless there is a very bad result for the government after just one term or less.
This was an appalling result for Helen Grant in the context that among the top 25 seats swinging to the Conservatives were 4 in Kent – Chatham & Aylesford, Dartford, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, and Dover.
This can be explained as the loss of personal votes for Anne Widdecombe and a reluctance of people in this constituency to vote for a female non-white candidate.
This seems to be a trend amongst an element of the Conservative supporters, which is reversed when the MP stands for a second term in office. ( Reading West being a notable exception)
I expect a large increase in the Conservative majority in this constituency if Helen Grant proves to be an effective MP.
“This was an appalling result for Helen Grant”
Not really. Swing is fairly meaningless. It isn’t very surprising that the Conservative share is down given the large personal vote that Ann Widdicombe enjoyed and which far outperformed the Conservatives performance in local elections.
Looking at the the change in vote share for each party
Con -2.5
Lab -13.0
LD +12.4
Which equates to pretty much a straight swing from Labour to LD (as in Canterbury) and is to an extent in line with Labour’s very poor performance in Kent generally, but if you wish to draw conclusions about the reluctance of a party’s supporters to vote for certain type of candidates, it would appear here that this applies to Labour supporters being unwilling to vote for an Asian candidate.
The Lib Dem candidate as a former RAF officer and a haulier who was involved in fuel protests is clearly not on the sandals and lentils wing of the Liberal democrats and would have been well placed to pick up votes from both Labour and Conservatives amongst the kind of demographic who might be lukewarm towards candidates from ethnic minority backgrounds. As I say, in as much as this was any kind of factor, it clearly impacted more on the Labour than the Tory vote even after factoring national swing.
“This seems to be a trend amongst an element of the Conservative supporters, which is reversed when the MP stands for a second term in office. ( Reading West being a notable exception)”
Reading West is not the only exception… the results in Witham and Gillingham and Rainham were also notably good.
The result in Surrey East (whilst showing a fractional swing to the Lib Dems) wasn’t bad. It saw an increase in the Tory vote, and vote share – to almost 57%.
There are three results where the Tories had ethnic minority candidates which were disappointing:
1) Here in Maidstone – but as Pete points out that was apparently Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems.
2) Spelthorne. Again, there was an element of Labour voters switching Lib Dem… and Kwasi Kwarteng was selected quite late in the day so didn’t have much time to campaign, unlike Alok Sharma, Priti Patel and Rehman Chishti.
3) Bromsgrove. The worst of these results, showing a fall in the actual numerical vote. I expect, maybe wrongly, that this is the seat where race played the biggest part in the outcome. People here may look at Birmingham and frown a bit. Even so, there are other factors to consider here: The fallout from Julie Kirkbride’s well-publicised issues can only have harmed the party, and I think Sajid Javid was only selected a few weeks before the election (and the shortlist having been drawn up by CCHQ won’t have helped with perceptions – Kwasi Kwarteng didn’t have that baggage).
“This can be explained as the loss of personal votes for Anne Widdecombe and a reluctance of people in this constituency to vote for a female non-white candidate.”
Yes, I think it’s clear that *every single* conservative is a bigoted, racist misogynist.
Looks like the BC have recommended a seat which includes the whole of Maidstone in one seat for the first time in ages:
htttp://rr-bce-static.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Maidstone-CC.pdf?9d7bd4
That’s right, and despite a huge swing to the Lib Dems at the last election in the current seat, the boundary commission have achieved the added feat of making a constituency that includes all of Maidstone but which doesn’t actually look that marginal!
Loose ward and the council estate Park ward are not included in the proposed constituency, though are presumably part of what is considered to be the built up area around Maidstone. The constituency loses the current rural tail around Staplehurst and Sissinghurst but gains rural wards around Hollingbourne instead including the major tourist attraction of Leeds Castle.
Maidstone has been Conservative since 1906 although in 1922 their majority was cut to 33 votes by the Liberals.
The seat was Tory from 1885 to 1900 and Liberal from then until 1906.
Actually that 1922 result is interesting to look at in detail:
Con 8,928 (34.6%)
Lib 8,895 (34.4%)
Lab 8,004 (31.0%)