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Macclesfield

2010 Results:
Conservative: 23503 (46.95%)
Labour: 10164 (20.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 11544 (23.06%)
UKIP: 1418 (2.83%)
Green: 840 (1.68%)
Others: 2590 (5.17%)
Majority: 11959 (23.89%)

2005 Results:
Conservative: 22628 (49.6%)
Labour: 13227 (29%)
Liberal Democrat: 8918 (19.5%)
Other: 848 (1.9%)
Majority: 9401 (20.6%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 22284 (48.9%)
Labour: 15084 (33.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8217 (18%)
Majority: 7200 (15.8%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 26888 (49.6%)
Labour: 18234 (33.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 9075 (16.7%)
Majority: 8654 (16%)

No Boundary Changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: David Rutley (Conservative) born 1961. Educated at Lewes Priory School and LSE. Director at Asda. Contested St Albans 1997

2010 election candidates:
portraitDavid Rutley (Conservative) born 1961. Educated at Lewes Priory School and LSE. Director at Asda. Contested St Albans 1997
portraitAdrian Heald (Labour) Consultant physician.
portraitRoger Barlow (Liberal Democrat) Professor of particle physics. Was selected as the Liberal Democrat candidate in Tatton in 1997, but withdrew in favour of Martin Bell. Contested Warrington South 2001, Halton 2005.
portraitJohn Knight (Green) Educated at the Open University. Trade union research officer.
portraitJacqueline Smith (UKIP)
portraitBrendan Murphy (Independent) Born West Ham. Educated at Salesian College and Manchester University. Runs a research consultancy. Formerly worked in the NHS and local govt. Former Macclesfield councillor for the Conservative party.

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 90444
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 21.7%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.7%
Full time students: 2.3%
Graduates 16-74: 26.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.4%
Owner-Occupied: 78.6%
Social Housing: 12.4% (Council: 9.5%, Housing Ass.: 2.8%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.8%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

135 Responses to “Macclesfield”

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  1. The Tories’ 46.95% must be their lowest ever in this constituency.

  2. I’ve tried to make an estimate.

    This seat was unchanged in 2010.

    So the notional 1992 result on the current seat was –

    Con 32,332 56.0%
    Lab 13,202 22.9%
    LD 11,958 20.7%
    NLP 246 0.4%
    Turnout 81.5%

    The 1979 notional result on
    those same boundaries was

    Con 33,600 60.0%
    Lab 12,951 23.0%
    Lib 9,584 17.0%

    The Con increase in 1979 in the actual – oversized –
    Macclesfield seat was bang on the national rise
    of 8.2% but it was 9.8% since the February 1974 election (when Con % was lower than in Oct).
    Here a greater degree of estimation comes in,
    but it looks like Winterton maintained the ’74 figures in the Tories baron 1997-2005 period,
    but as the Tory share has slipped again, Andy has probably been proven right.

  3. It was lower in the 1971 by-election and fractionally so in 1966 but not sure, if you are adjusting for by-elections. The seat then included the town of Congleton and without that I guess the Tory share would have been higher

  4. Lib Dems will win the new Poynton Hazle Grove seat by 12,000, Macclesfield will be down to the wire.
    Stockport council will easyly go Lib Dem this year, with stupendous momentum because Lib Dems are so popular on the ground. They’l probably take the Cheshire east council in 2 years time aswell.

  5. Gloy

    The reason you were such a good poster a few years back was that, although your predictions were “stupendously” optimistic for the Lib Dems, there was a grain of probability that what you were predicting might happen – especially during the few weeks of Cleggasm in the general election campaign.

    However, now your time has come and gone.

    Predictions like the one above look tired and sad now, a bit like the Lib Dems’ once formidable elction fighting machine.

    In politics you know you’re in trouble when your fortunes have plummeted so far that your opponents start to feel sorry for you.

  6. The reason his posts were interesting was because we were never quite sure whether he was mad or joking.

    But we’ve realised that he MUST be taking the michael. The mystery has gone somewhat.

  7. Margaret Thatcher seemed to be a bit sorry for Labour in the 1983 campaign.
    She made various statements in the last few days (confirmed I think in her memoirs)
    that were designed to stop the Alliance coming second,
    perhaps because that could have been a longer term threat to the Tories aswell.

  8. Yes Shaun we can be quite certain that Mr Plopwell’s posts are not to be taken seriously.
    The only trouble is, if and when the Lib Dems ever again acquire stupendous momentum in a constituency, we won’t be adequately warned about it.

  9. I’d expect a respectable recovery in the Labour vote in Macclesfield town at the next election but not so much in the rest of the seat.

    Accounting for the proposed boundary changes, most likely:

    Con 49
    Lab 26
    LD 17

  10. Id have thought the Cons will be considerably higher than that. More likely 52-55. 2010 was a dreadful result for obvious reasons if you look at the context of 1997-2005 the LDs should be much worse off than 17 id imagine even if they recover a bit.

    Con 53
    Lab 29
    LD 13
    UKIP 4
    Green 1

  11. My predicted scenario was based on the boundary changes going through, on current boundaries I’d guess at something more like this:

    Con 50
    Lab 27
    LD 15
    UKIP 4
    Others 4

  12. Rutley’s been on the local news now and again since he was elected, but I still don’t really know what to make of him as an MP- He was after all responsible for the Conservative vote falling to its lowest ever post-war level at a general election (Probably due to Winterton retiring)- But I’m not going to hold that against him. I would be interested to know what Macclesfield residents think of the Gravesend native.

  13. A lesser candidate than Winterton could just have got into slight trouble here in 1997, though the seat would almost certainly have still been held. As it was, he did very well in the circumstances, and I’m not surprised that he has been missed. I always got the impression that he was a diligent MP who was courteous to non-Conservatives as well as his supporters, and attracted independent-minded voters to his cause. It’s strange in a way how Macclesfield looks for all the world like a typical Northern textile town, with its working class terraced streets towards the centre and mixed suburbs (like Bury for example), and yet is surrounded by such wealth & monolithic Tory support. Indeed, Macclesfield town itself does have some pretty wealthy corners too.

  14. Rutley actually increased the numerical vote here by 875 votes. But the increased turnout meant that the Conservative vote share fell by 2.7%. They also weren’t helped by the combined pressence of UKIP and an Independent who used to be a Tory- Brendan Murphy, Conservative PPC for Hazel Grove in 1997. Without them standing and probably with Winterton still as candidate, the Conservative vote share here could have reached 55%.

  15. The Conservative vote is very inelastic here.

  16. Perhaps the natural Conservative vote share is going to be lower here now that Winterton is no longer the MP.

  17. Yes, Macclesfield town is a lot better for the Tories than towns like Winsford and Northwich are. In fact, the Tories narrowly outpolled Labour there in the 2011 locals (5276 to 4619 by my calculations). The rest of the Macclesfield seat is a complete non-starter for Labour, which is why they didn’t get within striking distance even in 1997.

    I would expect Rutley to poll > 50% next time. He should benefit from first-time incumbency and may profit a bit from a Lib Dem decline (though Labour will naturally profit more). I think:

    Con 52
    Lab 28
    LD 13

  18. I think the result could be-
    Rutley (Conservative)- 53%
    Labour- 30%
    Lib Dem- 12%
    UKIP- 5%

  19. “Perhaps the natural Conservative vote share is going to be lower here now that Winterton is no longer the MP.”

    “I think the result could be-
    Rutley (Conservative)- 53%”

    …so a 7% increase in the Tory vote then.
    A slight anomaly between those two statements?

  20. A rather more than slight anomaly I would say……….:)

  21. Chris K, no offence but everytime you come on here you habitually slag me off. You’ve done it on Montgomeryshire and now you’re doing it here. Why? And before you say anything I know you work in a very well-paid profession so don’t think that makes you any better than me.

  22. I’m not looking for a row – it’s just that you do post an awful lot of fairly specious stuff on seats and it does clutter the site rather – e.g it shoves other contributor’s comments down the list and risks people missing them. Of course, me cluttering the site with demands for betting info is entirely justified…….:)

    I fully accept that I don’t have great political knowledge but I do at least concede that within most of my points.

    I just think there are a lot of knowledgeable posters (Shaun B, Tim J, Barnaby M, JJB, SwanArcadian, HH, Andy JS, AKMD, Pete W etc) so why not leave the detailed analysis to those who know……….and instead concentrate on commenting on the constituencies you actually do know? The stuff you wrote on some of the Merseyside constituencies was genuinely interesting as you come from that neck of the woods.

    As for the ‘well paid job’ stuff…..not really true, and I’ve no idea where you got that from.

  23. I have to confess to having criticised RESULTS on Montgomeryshire as well today, so we may seem to be waging some campaign against him-which I can assure you is not the case at all.

    But if you say some pretty silly things that is easy to refute, you’re going to get picked up on it. On Montgomeryshire you said that the Lib Dems may have lost it “for ever” which is an absolutely crazy thing to say unless you think that the party has got no future electorally.

  24. I digress, Shaun. Is there any truth in this though- That UKIP not standing would see Rutley’s vote share go over 50% at the next election?

  25. This is well known and been discussed earlier in the thread,
    but Labour does have a reasonable base in Macclefield town,
    backing up what Barnaby says.
    In a good year for them, or even a bad year where they poll a decent share of the vote (1979)
    perhaps Labour would lead in the town.

    Also, Bollington in years like 1995.

    Mr Whitehead may be along to correct me
    but if you scan the ward results it’s pretty clear.

    It is places like Prestbury, and Poynton where the Tories pile up the votes.

  26. I always thought Labour might have pushed the Tories hard in Macclesfield in 1997 – especially in light of some of the seats they did win – but they didn’t come close

    In fact in terms of numerical votes, the Tories haven’t been able to top the 26,888 votes they got in that election

  27. Yes that’s a valid point. This seat has turned out to be more like bridgwater and west somerset, rather than solihull, although there is little in common with the former other than politics. Solid con and labour votes which prevent any challenge to the cons although they should really be 50pc or so anyway

  28. JJB- agreed. In 2011, the victorious Conservative councillors got 65% between them in Poynton West and 66% in Poynton East. In Prestbury, the Conservative got 87% in a straight fight with Labour.

  29. Basically the whole of the NW of the constituency is incredibly safe Tory, though Prestbury is particularly monolithic. Perhaps it’s the most Tory town in the country – it’s certainly one of the very richest.

  30. It probably is, they have exceeded 90% on a few occasions too – 2008 perhaps.
    It’s not very large though.
    It’s more the number of places around here which are almost like that.
    Tytherington is a little bit more ordinary.

    Labour should be second here though – not third.

  31. I was surprised some time back that Broken Cross isn’t more Labour – perhaps the town has shifted away from Labour a bit aswell.

    Can’t see much changing here really unless there’s some huge scandal
    or boundary change and looking at the areas around it, can’t see that being likely.
    It really is the profile of a safe seat, although it’s always very bad to assume that.

  32. It looks like Labour will probably reclaim second place here in 2015, and provided the Lib Dems’ vote collapses then Rutley could be in for an increase in his vote share as well as Labour with that so oft-mentioned first-time incumbency maybe having an effect…

  33. Not sure the LDs would completely collapse here.
    I’m vritually certain we are going to see a fairly long list of seats next time where they barely scrape their deposit
    aswell as seats where they are down just a bit.

    Here, I think about 15-16%.

  34. I think that the Labour vote may return to its 2001 level (When ironically the Tory majority was lower albeit marginally than 1997)

  35. I agree with Joe James B about the Lib dems. The biggest proportional collapse in their vote will probably occur in constituencies where they have no councillors such as NE Derbyshire, Bolsover, Stalybridge, Ynys Mon and Rochdale etc to a lesser extent so them winning 15% nationally and 33-35 MPs is my thinking.

    The LD core is still pretty robust in nearby Cheadle and Hazel Grove (although Labour is starting to take parts of the latter seriously).

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