Luton South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12396 (29.36%)
Labour: 14725 (34.88%)
Liberal Democrat: 9567 (22.66%)
BNP: 1299 (3.08%)
UKIP: 975 (2.31%)
Green: 366 (0.87%)
Independent: 2813 (2.23%)
Others: 75 (0.18%)
Majority: 2329 (5.52%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16577 (42.8%)
Conservative: 10877 (28.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8732 (22.5%)
Other: 2560 (6.6%)
Majority: 5700 (14.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 10960 (28.2%)
Labour: 16610 (42.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8778 (22.6%)
Green: 790 (2%)
UKIP: 957 (2.5%)
Other: 823 (2.1%)
Majority: 5650 (14.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11586 (29.4%)
Labour: 21719 (55.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4292 (10.9%)
UKIP: 578 (1.5%)
Green: 798 (2%)
Other: 378 (1%)
Majority: 10133 (25.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15109 (31.4%)
Labour: 26428 (54.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4610 (9.6%)
Referendum: 1205 (2.5%)
Other: 832 (1.7%)
Majority: 11319 (23.5%)
Boundary changes: very minor. Luton South loses around 200 voters in Barnfield to Luton North.
Profile: Luton was historically a manufacturing town, originally for hats (hence the nickname of Luton Town football club, based in the constituency) and more recently for Vauxhall cars and Electrolux. The Vauxhall car plant closed in 2002 and the fast growing London Luton Airport, the hub of EasyJet`s operations and is becoming a far more inportant part of the local economy – Luton reportedly has the highest proportion of taxi drivers per head of anywhere in the UK.
The constituency has a high proportion of ethnic minorities, in the 2001 census over a quarter of the population was non-white and there is a large Muslim population that could have a political impact.
Until it was surprisingly retained by Labour in 2010, Luton South had been one the most reliable bellwether seats in the country, having been won by the party that went on to form the government in every election since 1951.
The former MP, Margaret Moran, announced she was stepping down after being criticised for the Daily Telegraph for claiming £22,000 in expenses to treat dry rot in her second home, not before provoking a wide range of anti-sleaze candidates, including TV personality Esther Rantzen.
Current MP: Gavin Shuker (Labour) Born Luton. Educated at Icknield High School and Cambridge University. Runs a local church.
Nigel Huddleston (Conservative) Born 1970, Lincoln. Educated at Robert Pattinson Comprehensive School and Oxford University. Management consultant.Gavin Shuker (Labour) Born Luton. Educated at Icknield High School and Cambridge University. Runs a local church.
Qurban Hussain (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Bedford College and Luton University. Former Labour councillor, defected to the Liberal Democrats in 2003. Luton councillor. Contested Luton South 2005, Eastern region in 2009 European elections.
Marc Scheimann (Green) Educated at St Columba’s College. Computer consultant. Former councillor. Contested Luton South 1997, 2001, 2005. Contested Eastern region 1999, 2004, 2009 European election.
Charles Lawman (UKIP) Engineer and surveyor. Contested Luton South 2001, 2005.
Tony Blakey (BNP) 
Esther Rantzen (Independent) Born 1940, Berkhampsted. Educated at North London Collegiate School and Oxford University. Television producer and presenter, most famous for presenting That`s Life from 1973 to 1994. Founder of the charity Childline, she was appointed CBE in 2006 for services to children.
Stephen Lathwell (Independent) Born Luton. Educated Bedford Modern School and University of Hertfordshire. Innovation Engineer.
Joe Hall (Independent) Born Luton. Educated at Icknield High and Oxford University. Formerly worked for Save the Children.
Steven Rhodes (Independent) Born Dublin. Former radio presenter on BBC Three Counties Radio.
Frank Sweeney (Workers Revolutionary)
Farak Choudhury (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97341
Male: 50.5%
Female: 49.5%
Under 18: 25.8%
Over 60: 15.7%
Born outside UK: 20.8%
White: 71.6%
Black: 5.5%
Asian: 19.6%
Mixed: 2.2%
Other: 1%
Christian: 57.9%
Hindu: 1.8%
Muslim: 17.4%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 7.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.1%
Owner-Occupied: 67.1%
Social Housing: 16.2% (Council: 11.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.4%)
Privately Rented: 14.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.4%
Lab Hold.
Lab hold, just with a close Con/LD fight for 2nd. Hard to predict Rantzen’s vote but I’d have a stab at 10-12%, and I suspect enough of that may have come from the blues that it might, only might, deprive them of a win here.
Spoke with many in the Farley polling station today who are voting Conservative – they don’t trust Labour any more and have no time for the Lib Dems. As for the number of silly independent candidates …….
Conservative Gain
Look at my previous posts-dont say I didnt warn you, especially about the lib dems ‘winning’.
I was amazed that Esther Rantzen only managed 1,872 votes here and that Labour held on by 2,329.
One of the seats where a new candidate is a better bet than an incumbent.
Predicted this would stay red.
I think Luton has a fairly young demographic. How many know, or care, who Rantzen is? She must be gutted at her paltry vote after, apparently, putting a lot of time into this. Bet she won’t be back to Luton anytime soon….
To be honest, I thought thiswould go tory…but happy its still red….even more happy that Mr Hussain once again finished in 3rd position!
Plz god, i hope he hasnt already put in his nomination for the next gen election!!!!!
I’m happy it stayed Labour for the sake of my own finances but more especially happy that the Independent candidate who was so hyped by the media lost her deposit. Of course the BBC had to exagerrate her importance to the end announcing the result not as ‘Labour hold Luton South’ but ‘Esther Rantzen loses Luton South’.. that is to say ‘irrelevant fringe candidate, one of three Independents standing doesn’t get elected – shock horror’
The BBC also wasted time interviewing her before the result. How do they claim to be impartial in their coverage?
I will add as an aside I found the election coverage irritating more generally with the number of times they switched from the studio to Andrew Neil at a luvvies party discussing nothing very much with various celebrities. Perhaps it is just a sign of ageing and election nights always had this frivilous sh*te but it seems to me like another example of dumbing down.
Pete – im chasing your posts tonight and totally agree on the bbc coverage – Thankfully I had the luxury of the Scottish coverage on BBC1 which, despite the focus on my own region, still flashed up all the key UK results. It was much better watching than my first attempt at the main UK coverage (which was on BBc2 north of the border)
Labour ran this one like a by-election, with local messaging not national, a strong local candidate, and from what I could see, the biggest and sharpest polling day operation.
Neither the LDs or Conservatives ‘got it’ – that with this high-profile a seat, national messages wouldn’t work. The size of Shuker’s majority speaks for itself – very impressed.
Qorban Hussain was an absolute joke during the campaign. To be honest I can’t believe the LDs picked him again after Labour did one on him during the last locals (majority down to 7 votes) – he’s out of his council seat for sure in 2011.
yes I am very pleased that Labour held this crucial seat but am disgusted by the totally disproportionate coverage that the ineffable Rantzen got. She had no reason to stand other than personal vanity.
It is a pity that the candidate with the most experience of issues facing Lutonians, the LibDem candidate Qurban Hussain, was not elected. The town has lost its best opportunity yet to elect someone who has been tried and tested by the people of Luton for the the past 13 years.
This in my view has been as a direct result of 2 two tactics used in this election campaign – the fear campaign waged by both tories and labour about the perils of a hung parliament persuaded many would be libdem supporters to vote for either of the 2 larger parties
and by the smear campaign waged by the likes of your ealier poster Waseem who would have you believe that Qurban was only targeting a specfic community. This has not only been a very devisive message propogated by your poster but also factually incorrect. I was present at the said fundraising event where Qurban had supposedly made these remarks and can categorically deny hearing anything of the sort. this was nothing but an example of the gutter politics used by supporters of the oppostion in a desparate attempt to disway the “english” community from voting for him (successfully so). Mr Hussain has worked tirelessly for the diverse communities of Luton as a Councillor , all communities not just one. and yes he is a muslim and kashmiri, so there is no need to keep harping on about that. By the same toekn one could argue that Gavin Shuker is a member of an church and as such will only serve the church goers. How rediculous. Get real Mr Waseem (or what ever your real name is)!!
In a sinister twist to this vicious hate campaign, the comments in Waseems posting of 25th April appeared (word for word) in the letters columns of a local free newspaper a few days later but penned by a different person. The supposed author of that letter has since come forward and denied writing them. This gives credence to the suggestion that the campaign was well orchestrated to create maximum damage to Mr Hussains campaign. Why do cowards like Waseem who write such dire tripe not use their real identities? is it that they are afraid their lies will be found out? Shame on you?
I would also remind both the administrator of this website and other writers, of the comments policy of this website, with particular reference to “What it is NOT for is partisan oneupmanship, it is not to criticise rival candidates, ….. It is not to plant unsubstantiated rumors to cause trouble.” in these posts there have been several personal attacks on Mr Hussain and unsubstantiated claims of remarks, both of which should never have been allowed on this forum.
Maherban, your candidate lose because he wasn’t very good. He’s toast in the next Lib Dem selection…
Yes Maherban. You may think that it’s a pity, but the electorate have spoken. Even many who did vote for him will probably be regretting it now, with the LDs having gone into coalition with the Conservatives. This is real sour grapes on your part, I’m afraid.
Maherban you are deluded and a complete hypocrite:
Exhibit 1
“It is a pity that the candidate with the most experience of issues facing Lutonians, the LibDem candidate Qurban Hussain, was not elected. The town has lost its best opportunity yet to elect someone who has been tried and tested by the people of Luton for the the past 13 years.”
Exhibit 2
“In a sinister twist to this vicious hate campaign, the comments in Waseems posting of 25th April appeared (word for word) in the letters columns of a local free newspaper a few days later but penned by a different person.”
Exhibit 3
“I would also remind both the administrator of this website and other writers, of the comments policy of this website, with particular reference to ‘What it is NOT for is partisan oneupmanship, it is not to criticise rival candidates, ….. It is not to plant unsubstantiated rumors to cause trouble.’ ”
Qurban lost because the people of Luton South didn’t want a Lib Dem as their MP. He didn’t increase his vote share because he was an abismally poor candidate not once but twice in a row.
If he’s so good at serving Luton why hasn’t he shown his face in public since the election? I bet he leaves the town when he loses his council seat next year.
Barnaby: “am disgusted by the totally disproportionate coverage that the ineffable Rantzen got. She had no reason to stand other than personal vanity.”
I realise this is an old post and I have probably made the point often enough anyway, but I want to register my complete agreement with Barnaby’s sentiment here. I’m glad that it was rewarded with a humiliating lost deposit. Even yet the BBC flashed up the result as ‘Esther Ranzen loses Luton South’ in the manner that they would with the constituency of a high profile politician. I hope if some similar situation arises then the BBC will start to show the impartiality which it supposedly prides itself on, but I won’t hold my breath
Absolutely! It wasn’t her seat in the first place for her to lose!
Esther Rantzen was the BBC’s Downing Street reporter on the 1983 election night programme so maybe that was why they were giving her extra coverage.
I doubt that was the main reason. Looking back at old elections though, it isnt anything new. On the 1959 eletcion coverage they did make quite a song and dance about Ludovic Kennedy’s result in Rochdale, but at least then he was standing for one of the proper parties rather than purely on his own ego, and he did have some prospect of winning
On the blog part of this site (…/blog/archives/2753?cp=5) I have posted on what I think the impact of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill would be on Bedfordshire.
It looks like Luton isn’t big enough for 2 constituencies, while Bedford Borough and Central Beds together will be allocated 4 (much as at present). Luton will, I think have to take in some voters from Hertfordshire somehow, and the requirement to be within +or- 5% of the UK quota size will, mean boundary changes. I anticipate that Luton North will take Dallow Ward, or Biscot Ward (perhaps with High Town). Luton South would then extend into Hertfordshire to the extent of 25,000 voters or so – most obviously to take in Harpenden: the remainder of Luton South and Harpenden together would be a suitable size constituency, with a certain amount of linking countryside.
Ben where do you get data on constiuency composition and ward size?
LutonTown:
Take a look at http://www.boundarycommissionforengland.org.uk/electoral-figures/electoral-figures.htm
A downside: the figures appear to be from relatively early in the year: it looks like voters who registered in the run-up to the GE are not included (and neither are proposed new boundaries for Central Beds & Bedford Borough)
BTW There is also further discussion of possible alternatives to the Luton South and Harpenden at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2753/
LutonTown:
Take a look at ht tp://www.boundarycommissionforengland.org.uk/electoral-figures/electoral-figures.htm
A downside: the figures appear to be from relatively early in the year: it looks like voters who registered in the run-up to the GE are not included (and neither are proposed new boundaries for Central Beds & Bedford Borough)
BTW There is also further discussion of possible alternatives to the Luton South and Harpenden at ht tp://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2753/
Luton South & Harpenden would be a particularly polarised seat! Harpenden is very wealthy.
Barnaby,
Presumably that would tip the seat decisively in the direction of the Tories. Mind you, the only way I can see of avoiding that is for Luton and Dunstable to be divided up into two constituencies (see …/blog/archives/2753/), and Dunstable is very bad territory for the Labour Party, too.
It looks to me like Labour will only really have a chance of one MP in Luton, unless there is a landslide.
Further North, in Bedford, even on the best case for Labour, changes are likely to make the constituency harder to win for Labour, adding, I think, Turvey where Lab got 9% and Wootton where Lab only got 4% at the last council elections (although the latter was because of LD squeeze, and the LDs got 46%, a reasonable proportion of which Lab would hope to get in a General Election).
Gavin Shuker bears a slight, though not very strong, resemblance to Ed Miliband.
Luton town centre and present day Farley ward were I think in Luton East until 1983 and this seat since.
Margaret Moran has been charged with 21 offences.
Has she really aged 20 years or was this in order that the jury feel sorry for her?
The change in her was as astounding as Gary Glitter.