Luton North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 13672 (31.78%)
Labour: 21192 (49.26%)
Liberal Democrat: 4784 (11.12%)
BNP: 1316 (3.06%)
UKIP: 1564 (3.64%)
Green: 490 (1.14%)
Majority: 7520 (17.48%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19095 (48.6%)
Conservative: 12658 (32.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6127 (15.6%)
Other: 1414 (3.6%)
Majority: 6437 (16.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12575 (32.1%)
Labour: 19062 (48.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6081 (15.5%)
UKIP: 1255 (3.2%)
Other: 149 (0.4%)
Majority: 6487 (16.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12210 (31.2%)
Labour: 22187 (56.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3795 (9.7%)
UKIP: 934 (2.4%)
Majority: 9977 (25.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16234 (34.3%)
Labour: 25860 (54.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4299 (9.1%)
Other: 939 (2%)
Majority: 9626 (20.3%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Kelvin Hopkins(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Jeremy Brier (Conservative) Kelvin Hopkins(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Rabi Martins (Liberal Democrat) Simon Hall (Green)Colin Brown (UKIP)Shelley Rose (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93081
Male: 49.4%
Female: 50.6%
Under 18: 26.6%
Over 60: 17.2%
Born outside UK: 17.6%
White: 73.9%
Black: 6.8%
Asian: 15.7%
Mixed: 2.8%
Other: 0.8%
Christian: 62.7%
Hindu: 3.5%
Muslim: 10.8%
Sikh: 1%
Full time students: 3.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.6%
Social Housing: 16.1% (Council: 13%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.5%
I think the 2011 census figures will probably show that demographic change had a lot to do with the result here.
Was this the only seat in the Eastern region (out of 55 =) where Labour polled 40%+?
Yes it was (except it is out of 58) and was one of only three in the South of England outside London (the others being Slough and Oxford East)
I’m not surprised at the result here at all. From what I’ve heard, Hopkins is a very good MP and a really nice bloke. However, I’m surprised Labour held onto Luton South after Moran’s antics.
The Tories have been stuck on 30% in both Luton seats since ’97. In fact their share in both seats is just below that year’s Labour landslide.
I wonder what the result in the pre-1997 Luton North would have been. The areas outside Luton included in that seat were strongly Conservative IIRC. I think Flitwick was in the constituency then.
Although Flitwick itself is not always that strongly Conservative and may well itself have voted Labour in 1997 and/or 2001. I expect it would have been very close this year on those old boundaries. These would remove Saints ward of Luton which is probably worth about 1,000 of the Labour majority so the Conservatives would need to be around 6,500 ahead in the rural wards. I haven’t worked out figures for this election but in the comparable year of 1992 they were just under 7,000 votes ahead in that territory so as I say very close
Not sure if Beds would lose a seat with 600 constituencies. If it did the pre-1997 boundaries in Luton could be a possible outcome and therefore Luton North would become a plausible target again as your figures suggest.
Barnaby
The ‘Tatler Tories’ were 10 Conservative A Listers who at the height of Cameroonian hubris (Summer 2008) appeared in a photoshoot for Tatler magazine.
They were:
Shaun Bailey “Tipped as future Home Secretary” – Hammersmith, lost
Mark Clarke “Tipped as future Trade and Industry Secretary” – Tooting, lost
Joanne Cash “Tipped as future Housing Minister” – Westminster N, lost
Annunziata Rees-Mogg “Tipped as future Defence Secretary” – Somerton, lost
Peter Lyburn “tipped as future Environment Secretary” – Perth, lost
Charlotte Leslie “Tipped as future Education Secretary” – Bristol NW, won
Jeremy Brier “Tipped as future Chancellor” – Luton N, lost
Nicola Blackwood “Tipped as future Foreign Secretary” – Oxford W, won
Helen Whately “Tipped as future Health Secretary” – Kingston, lost
Kulveer Ranger “Tipped as future Transport Secretary” – didn’t stand but was Conservative Vice-Chairman for Cities.
Thanks for that Richard, good explanation.
Funnily enough of those that won, Nicola Blackwood must have been one of the least fancied. Only Bristol NW was a certain gain but of the others certainly Somerton, Westminster North and perhaps Hammersmith looked more likely gains than OxWAb. Of those seats I would only have said Kingston was a no hoper although I thought it unlikely the Tories would gain either Perth or Luton North.
Kulveer Ranger is often on the local London news and seems quite impressive and to have a bright future ahead of him
On the blog part of this site (…/blog/archives/2753?cp=5) I have posted on what I think the impact of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill would be on Bedfordshire.
It looks like Luton isn’t big enough for 2 constituencies, while Bedford Borough and Central Beds together will be allocated 4 (much as at present). Luton will, I think have to take in some voters from Hertfordshire somehow, and the requirement to be within +or- 5% of the UK quota size will, mean boundary changes. I anticipate that Luton North would perhaps be of suitable size with the addition of Dallow Ward, or Biscot Ward (perhaps with High Town).
Bob- That’s not fair. Jeremy’s a very clever guy and fought very very hard. He came up against one of the most popular local MPs in the Country and there is no local tory party support. He was never going to win here.
The Guardian’s notional figures for the proposed Luton North & Dunstable constituency put the seat on a knife-edge:
Lab: 20,325
Con: 20,246
LD: 7,358
On this occasion the Guardian proposals seem to have “accidentally” turned out to be almost correct. The Wells notionals are as follows:
Con: 20,870
Lab: 20,813
LD: 5,893