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Louth and Horncastle

2010 Results:
Conservative: 25065 (49.64%)
Labour: 8760 (17.35%)
Liberal Democrat: 11194 (22.17%)
BNP: 2199 (4.35%)
UKIP: 2183 (4.32%)
English Democrat: 517 (1.02%)
Others: 576 (1.14%)
Majority: 13871 (27.47%)

Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21371 (46.3%)
Labour: 11943 (25.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9258 (20.1%)
Other: 3552 (7.7%)
Majority: 9428 (20.4%)

Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 21744 (46.6%)
Labour: 11848 (25.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 9480 (20.3%)
UKIP: 3611 (7.7%)
Majority: 9896 (21.2%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 21543 (48.5%)
Labour: 13989 (31.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8928 (20.1%)
Majority: 7554 (17%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 21699 (43.4%)
Labour: 14799 (29.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 12207 (24.4%)
Other: 1248 (2.5%)
Majority: 6900 (13.8%)

Boundary changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Peter Tapsell(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitPeter Tapsell(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
portraitPatrick Mountain (Labour)
portraitFiona Martin (Liberal Democrat) born 1954. East Lindsey councillor.
portraitPat Nurse (UKIP)
portraitJulia Green (BNP)
portraitColin Mair (English Democrat)
portraitDaniel Simpson (Lincolnshire Independent)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 92260
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 20.3%
Over 60: 29%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 79.9%
Full time students: 1.6%
Graduates 16-74: 13.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.6%
Social Housing: 9.8% (Council: 3.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.9%)
Privately Rented: 10.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.5%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

70 Responses to “Louth and Horncastle”

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  1. Some hope hawkeye… A Con maj of at least 9K

  2. CON HOLD

  3. Congratulations to the new Father of the House!

  4. If the next election is indeed in 2015, and Sir Peter is, to be blunt, still around by then (he’ll be 85), it will be 56 years since he was first elected an MP.

    He’ll have been an MP continuously for 49 years, and altogether for 54 years.

    He is the oldest Tory MP by a full 7 years (Sir Alan Haselhurst having been born in ’37), but I think he is only a few months older than the second oldest MP, Sir Gerald Kaufman.

  5. Hawkeye’s prediction was slightly out :-)

  6. Which seats have included Woodhall Spa since 1885?

  7. Louth (and Skegness) was in the old East Lindsey seat from 1983-97, Sir P T has thus been the town’s MP since 1983, although of course he has been an MP overall for much longer than that (he has been moved about somewhat due to various boundary changes in Lincolnshire – eg he was MP for Horncastle from 1966 to 1983, then again from 1997 when boundary changes removed Horncastle from Edward Leigh’s seat, who had been MP for Horncastle in the intervening 14 years)

  8. Peter Tapsell was first elected MP for Nottingham West in 1959, and must be one of the longest serving MP’s ever.

  9. there have been some who have served continuously for over 50 years – Ted Heath did so, as did Sir Robert Turton (Thirsk & Malton, C, 1924-1974).

  10. Turton was first elected in 1929, so he didn’t manage fifty years. Before Heath, Lloyd George was the last MP to have served continuously for fifty years. Churchill served from 1900 to 1964, but with a couple of short gaps.

  11. I beg your pardon, I thought Turton had been elected in 1929. (hangs head in utter shame).

  12. This is the 1992 notional result for Louth and Horncastle.

    There has been a further change in 2010, but it is a marginal change, so reasonable comparisons can still be made.

    1992
    Con 27,499 52.7%
    LD 16,529 31.7%
    Lab 7,122 13.7%
    Oth 1,018 2.0%
    C majority 10,970 21.0%
    Turnout 79.0%

    Adjusting for the boundary change in 2010,
    I estimate the % change for the parties from
    1992 to 2010 is as follows –

    Con -2.8%
    LD -9.3%
    Lab +3.2%

    Other parties also present in 2010, not in 1992

  13. Interesting that Labour are up by 3.2% because nationally the figure is a decrease of 5%.

  14. I guess it’s tactical voting that’s got broken up.
    In spite of my earlier statements about the weakness of the LDs in Lincolnshire, I think this is partly the old East Lindsey where they were a bit of a threat under the Alliance in the 80s.

    I was slightly surprised how badly Labour were down in the Holland and Boston areas compared to 1992 though.

  15. I noticed that turnouts in all of the Lincolnshire seats was disappointing – and lower than in many inner London seats like Hackney North.

    I wonder whether some previous Labour supporters have just given up on voting altogether because they feel the party doesn’t represent working-class voters in an area like Lincolnshire, but aren’t ready to start supporting any other party.

  16. I was wondering that.
    The turnout in Boston and Skegness was pretty dismal – not much up on 2001 or 2005.
    That could be Labour abstentions disproportionately.

    I need to check the turnout figures for all of them.

  17. I haven’t been to this bit of Lincolnshire,
    although have been on the road from Lincoln to the Humber Bridge.

    It is a very attractive county.

    UKIP seemed to damage the C share in 2005.

  18. Which constituencies have included Woodhall Spa since 1885?

  19. I see that Sir Peter Tapsell sponsored the introduction of the new Member for Bradford West.

  20. Is that in his role as Father of the House?

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