Loughborough
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21971 (41.58%)
Labour: 18227 (34.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9675 (18.31%)
BNP: 2040 (3.86%)
UKIP: 925 (1.75%)
Majority: 3744 (7.08%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20148 (40.6%)
Conservative: 19010 (38.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 8624 (17.4%)
Other: 1877 (3.8%)
Majority: 1138 (2.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17102 (37.1%)
Labour: 19098 (41.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8258 (17.9%)
UKIP: 1094 (2.4%)
Other: 588 (1.3%)
Majority: 1996 (4.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15638 (35.3%)
Labour: 22016 (49.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5667 (12.8%)
UKIP: 933 (2.1%)
Majority: 6378 (14.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19736 (37.7%)
Labour: 25448 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6190 (11.8%)
Referendum: 991 (1.9%)
Majority: 5712 (10.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Nicky Morgan (Conservative) Born 1972, Kingston on Thames. Educated at Surbiton High School and Oxford University. Solicitor. Contested Islington South 2001, Loughborough 2005.
Nicky Morgan (Conservative) Born 1972, Kingston on Thames. Educated at Surbiton High School and Oxford University. Solicitor. Contested Islington South 2001, Loughborough 2005.
Andy Reed(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Mike Willis (Liberal Democrat)John Foden (UKIP) 
Kevan Stafford (BNP) Educated at De Montford University. Retired architect. Contested East Midlands in 2009 European election.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91260
Male: 50.3%
Female: 49.7%
Under 18: 20.8%
Over 60: 17.9%
Born outside UK: 9%
White: 91%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 6%
Mixed: 1%
Other: 1.5%
Christian: 67.3%
Hindu: 3.5%
Muslim: 2.4%
Full time students: 15.6%
Graduates 16-74: 21%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.8%
Owner-Occupied: 73%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 11.1%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
Who for?
Im going for
UKIP 26
Labour 24
Tory 23
Green 10
LD 7
BNP 5
Other 5
“That threat is certainly something that will make me go out and vote for only the second time since they switched to the awful PR list system that was forced upon us”
So Tim is opposed to PR. Are there any Lib Dem core polcies that you actually do support Tim?
“Are there any Lib Dem core polcies that you actually do support Tim?”
Tim seems to oppose everything and support nothing. In a perverse way that makes him quite a typical Lib Dem.
He is also good at dodging questions.
For example after numerous of his anti-American pontifications, I have asked him when he last visited the USA, and each time he has ignored me.
‘Are there any Lib Dem core polcies that you actually do support Tim?’
Not very many – although
I supported the 1p extra in the £ for education – a core policy in their 92′ manifesto – and their desire to take some of the lowest paid workers out of paying income tax altogether
I also think the Tories would have gone far further in dismantling the welfare state had it not been for the Lib Dems (which I oppose) and I agree with them that electing police officers is a complete and utter waste of time and a typically ill thought out Cameroon policy
Thus my support is not so much for anything they have done, but rather from what they’ve prevented the Tories from doing
Elsewhere though I oppose PR, House of Lords reform, their liberal policies on crime, their overenthusiasm for the EU,their desire to scrap our nuclear deterent and am fairly neutral about their mansion tax – although I think taxing wealth is fairer than taxing income
See what I mean.
‘For example after numerous of his anti-American pontifications, I have asked him when he last visited the USA, and each time he has ignored me.’
I haven’t been to the US for a good many years – but I don’t follow the argument that that should exclude me from commenting on the country
I’m not anti American but I do think that a country that puts people like Ronald Reagan, George W Bush and now God help us the lamentable Mitt Romney to the highest office of the lands needs to ask itself some serious questions – a concern I would have thought someone as moderate as yourself would have shared
That’s npot to say their haven’yt been some great candudates who have wom the presidency — FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Clinton, Obama – but I’m surprised by anyone who would argue that politics is a rich man’s game in America – which was what my original post was about
“I haven’t been to the US for a good many years – but I don’t follow the argument that that should exclude me from commenting on the country”
Of course I don’t think that.
Nevertheless I do not think you understand America and how it thinks, nor do you seem to grasp the concept that different countries do things differently and that there’s not necessarily a right or wrong way to do things.
If you haven’t been to the US for “a great many years” then you wouldn’t recognise the country today. It is even pretty unrecognisible in many ways from when I lived there in 2005-6.
In terms of your lists of stupid and great presidents, it is without doubt that most Americans (including most Democrats) would put Reagan in the great presidents list. It is also without doubt that most Americans would not regard either Clinton or Obama as having been great presidents, although they would probably rate both above George W Bush.
That’s an interesting prediction from Joe R re the 2014 Euro Elections.
UKIP is likely to top the poll unless the government announces a date for a referendum of EU membership. This would be a sensation and could have far-reaching consequences – this is a potential ticking time bomb for Conservative Party that cannot be ignored for much longer.
It’s difficult to envisage how well Labour will do. Their only way is surely up, as they have not topped the poll since 1994 – and I can see the Green vote being squeezed. But I don’t think they are Eurosceptic enough for the public’s liking. The LibDems will, as usual, perform extremely badly I would have thought.
‘It is even pretty unrecognisible in many ways from when I lived there in 2005-6.’
That’s an interesting statement
In what way is the US “completely unrecognisable” from the country it was in 2005-06?
People used to say the same about the UK in 2008, compared to 1997 although I couldn’t say any major differences
Reagan was the great communicator but he also transformed America from the world’s biggest creditor to its biggest debtor after 6 years in office – so if Americans do view him as a great President they should look at his record
My inclusion of Obama was purely based on personal feelings and I doubt many Americans would include him in a list of great Presidents – although I understood Clinton to still be held in high regard – I certainly hold him in far higher regards than our champion of the third way – Mr Blair
I agree that there could be serious consequences created by the 2014 Euro elections if UKIP top the poll.
But wouldn’t the Tory leadership necessarily interpret it as a mandate for an in/out referendum if as some have suggested they top the poll with only 26 or 27%?
And as I’ve mentioned on here before, I’m still planning on voting Lib Dem in 2014 just like I did in 2009 as I still can’t bring myself to vote for the Tories so long as they sit alongside a bunch of closet racists in the European Parliament. And besides I’ve been drifting still further from the official tory line on Europe, so I guess the Lib Dems are becoming my natural home for Euro elections. 2014 will still only be the 3rd time I’ve voted for a party other than the Conservatives in any election (4th if you include the time I voted for the SDP in a straw poll at school for the 1987 general election when I was 13).
I will possibly go UKIP, depends how I feel on the day, I think they are an appalling load of old bigots in the main, but they probably annoy other MEPs and generally get in the way which can only be a good thing.
The problem with European elections is that getting a good indicator of how people in the Westminster constituencies may have voted had there been a general election is impossible- A lot of those who vote UKIP at Euro level would probably go with either the Tories, Lib Dems or possibly Labour for example at Westminster level. Likewise Greens maybe Labour or Lib Dems at Westminster level.
“In what way is the US “completely unrecognisable” from the country it was in 2005-06?”
The self-confidence of the country and its system is much lower today, and a there is realisation that things can not go on as they have in terms of unsustainable consumption, obsession with property ownership and mounting indebtedness. To their credit they are well ahead of the UK in accepting that.
‘I will possibly go UKIP, depends how I feel on the day, I think they are an appalling load of old bigots in the main,’
I don’t follow your logic Joe
In describing the party as an ‘appalling load of old bigots’ you seem to accept what most UKIP voters would seek to deny – yet then go on gto say you might vote for them
The Conservatives in the European Parliament have gone through a complete transformation from left-leaning Europhiles to rable rousing little Englanders led by Daniel Hanan. Most of the old guard have either left, defected or are hanging on waiting for the day that their party wises up and recognises that whatever its position on the EU, it’s doing itself no favours by sitting with Neo Nazis, holoucaust deniers and gay bashers
But from a Eurosceptic’s point of view, and I assume you favour repatriation as opposed to outright withdrawl, the most important change has been the transformation of the Tory Party as a whole from one which was enthusiastic about Europe to one that is increasingly skeptical, thus is strikes me as logical that any Eurosceptic would vote for the mainstream Euroseptic party, the Tories
Events are fast pushing the UK out of Europe, and we’ll be a lot further down that road by 2014.
I would say there’s an 80% plus likelihood that we won’t be in the EU in 5 years’ time.
In retrospect, the day that John Major secured an opt-out from the single currency at Maastricht, and the day that Gordon Brown decided to block the UK joining the Euro, were the two key decisions which kept us out of the fiscal compact and therefore have set us on a one-way road to eventual exit from the EU.
It’s interesting to think about what is going to happen to UKIP once the UK has left the EU. I wonder whether it will disband, or re-invent itself as a traditional Thatcherite party to the right of the Tories.
”It’s interesting to think about what is going to happen to UKIP once the UK has left the EU. I wonder whether it will disband, or re-invent itself as a traditional Thatcherite party to the right of the Tories.”
I’m tempted to say that UKIP will remain even when the UK does presumably one day leave the EU. Just like the SNP will remain even if they get an Independent Scotland. This We Demand A Referendum- Let The People Decide might get considerable votes at the next Euros, but it looks unlikely that Nikki Sinclaire will ever run candidates in the General Election. It may or may not see a similar fate to that of the UK First Party.
The ironic thing is that had first past the post still been in operation in the Euro elections, UKIP might have had no MEPs elected at all even if they topped the poll.
There are a lot of Nigel Farage speeches in the European Parliament on YouTube and I must confess he has a kind of genius and he’s fun to watch. With Van Rompuy threatening to remove our rebate I feel another one coming.
I have a lot of sympathy with UKIP policies but when it comes to general elections, they let in the parties whose names begin with L. I feel the Right ought to be pushing the same cart even if they don’t agree with the current leadership on everything. Bring about change from within.
“I’m tempted to say that UKIP will remain even when the UK does presumably one day leave the EU.”
If it does I think they would go into terminal decline, just as the National Front did in the late 1970s.
It is unquestionable that UKIP do take away votes from the Tories to a certain extent- As we all know on here our good friend Pete Whitehead, Prime UKIP Psephologist On UK Polling Report Extraordinaire Bar None was once a Conservative Party man himself. As was Nigel Farage, and so were probably a good number of the party’s current membership- It all begs the question, do UKIP exist to carry the Thatcher torch alight or do they exist simply to annoy the modern Tory party and split the right-wing vote?
However, at least in Euro elections, it is very clear that a lot of Labour voters also vote for UKIP.
My mother is one, who would never dream of voting for a Tory.
This is the hidden potential of UKIP – their ability to get a lot of votes in safe Labour areas which culturally hate the Tories.
In fact Paul Nuttall – who is from Bootle – is a prime example of the kind of UKIP candidate who could tap into working class Labour voters in areas like Merseyside where the Tories have minimal support.
Kilroy, if he hadn’t been such a prima donna, could have gobbled up a lot of Labour votes for UKIP during their unpopular last years of government and may even have won a couple of parliamentary seats. But it wasn’t to be.
This is true.
In the past decade or so it has usually been the BNP that has benefitted from disillusioned anti-Tory Labour voters, which would perhaps explain the election of Andrew Brons in the Yorkshire region. But it seems that party are gradually dying a death at the moment – even Brons has jumped ship.
”But it seems that party are gradually dying a death at the moment – even Brons has jumped ship.”
So I’ve noticed- He left over a week ago….
I’m not sure whether UKIP could gain all that much here nationally. Nuttall worked a local council ward very hard indeed, using what I can only describe as LibDem techniques – but still came a long way from winning. Nationally, few voters here vote on Europe and their right wing message isn’t too popular on Merseyside.
However, I think UKIP are well placed to gain disillusioned right wing working class Tories in the south
HH – the evidence here is that Labour voters just don’t turn out at all in Euro-elections, or at least didn’t last time, given they were held at the worst possible time
Oh – and I think that business will not allow the Tories to take us out of the EU unless they have sewn up a firm alternative first – which isn’t available
But to all intents and purposes the EU of the future is the fiscal compact, which we are outside of with no prospect of wanting to or being able to join.
In a very short time our loose attachment to the old EU will be just a formality and mean nothing, as the countries of the fiscal union forge ahead on their own.
This will make our payments to the EU politically and economically indefensible. Notice we are already threatening the Germans on this, and are starting to pull back powers like the European Arrest Warrant.
However, we wish to remain in the single market. I have my doubts as to how workable the fiscal compact will be – its likely that there will be different depths/structures of membership. But of course this is all supposition. I still think glorious isolation will be an utter disaster unless we adopt firm protectionist policies – there is precisely no chance of becoming a giant offshore Switzerland or competing with the Chinese in terms of cheap goods
“I’m not sure whether UKIP could gain all that much here nationally. Nuttall worked a local council ward very hard indeed, using what I can only describe as LibDem techniques – but still came a long way from winning. Nationally, few voters here vote on Europe and their right wing message isn’t too popular on Merseyside.”
Well, Nuttall is no Kilroy, and I don’t know Merseyside.
However in 2004 UKIP topped the poll in both Ashfield and Mansfield, the area I grew up in.
In order to do that they must have had masses of Labour votes…one of which was my mother’s.
I will never forget the hideous sight of Kilroy campaigning in Mansfield that year with all the old ladies cooing all over his fake tan…before he became a national joke that is.
If he had not messed up he could have tapped into that deep “Mrs Duffy” disillusionment in those kind of seats and done very well in a general election.
I believe that if we withdraw from tthe EU now, it will save us long-term. The money saved from not being in the EU could be better spent sorting out this country’s financial deficit. And there would be money also to invest in key areas- Education, defence and jobs.
“However, we wish to remain in the single market. I have my doubts as to how workable the fiscal compact will be – its likely that there will be different depths/structures of membership. But of course this is all supposition. I still think glorious isolation will be an utter disaster unless we adopt firm protectionist policies – there is precisely no chance of becoming a giant offshore Switzerland or competing with the Chinese in terms of cheap goods”
I agree with everything you say. But we have no choice. The fiscal compact is the new EU and if, as you predict, it doesn’t work, then there will eventually be no EU at all. We will just have to make the best out of it. The single market as we know it is very unlikely to survive the policies (including default) that countries like Spain and Greece are going to end up pursuing.
As you know I speak as a business pro-European so this reality gives me no pleasure at all.
‘The problem with European elections is that getting a good indicator of how people in the Westminster constituencies may have voted had there been a general election is impossible- A lot of those who vote UKIP at Euro level would probably go with either the Tories, Lib Dems or possibly Labour for example at Westminster level. Likewise Greens maybe Labour or Lib Dems at Westminster level.’
It’s worth pointing out that the Greens are a ‘serious party’ at a local level in England whereas UKIP are not.
60-70% of UKIP votes in local and Westminster elections come from disaffected tories.
Loughborough 2015 most likely
Con 42.1 (+0.5)
Lab 41.2 (+6.7)
LD 10.7 (-7.6)
others 6
Turnout 65%