The UKPollingReport election guide for 2010 has now been archived and all comments will shortly be closed. The new Election Guide for the 2015 election is now online at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide. The old site is archived at the UK Web Archive.
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Llanelli

2010 Results:
Conservative: 5381 (14.36%)
Labour: 15916 (42.49%)
Liberal Democrat: 3902 (10.42%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.94%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.79%)
Majority: 4701 (12.55%)

2005 Results:
Labour: 16592 (46.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 9358 (26.5%)
Conservative: 4844 (13.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4550 (12.9%)
Other: 0 (0%)
Majority: 7234 (20.5%)

2001 Result
Conservative: 3442 (9.5%)
Labour: 17586 (48.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3065 (8.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 11183 (30.9%)
Green: 515 (1.4%)
Other: 407 (1.1%)
Majority: 6403 (17.7%)

1997 Result
Conservative: 5003 (12.1%)
Labour: 23851 (57.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3788 (9.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 7812 (19%)
Other: 757 (1.8%)
Majority: 16039 (38.9%)

No Boundary Changes:

Profile:

portraitCurrent MP: Nia Griffith(Labour) (more information at They work for you)

2010 election candidates:
portraitChristopher Salmon (Conservative)
portraitNia Griffith(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
portraitMyrddin Edwards (Liberal Democrat)
portraitMyfanwy Davies (Plaid Cymru)
portraitAndrew Marshall (UKIP)

2001 Census Demographics

Total 2001 Population: 75777
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 24.8%
Born outside UK: 2.1%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 73.4%
Full time students: 2.6%
Graduates 16-74: 14.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 36.1%
Owner-Occupied: 71.4%
Social Housing: 19.4% (Council: 16.4%, Housing Ass.: 3%)
Privately Rented: 5.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6%

NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

200 Responses to “Llanelli”

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  1. The good people of Llanelli should be cowered to vote Labour…….they should in a democracy vote for who they wish…Plaid want PR voting…lib dems do and labour wants a watered down form…..and this is from someone lending his vote to lib dems to acheive a democratic voting system

  2. Reform of the voting system/proportional representation? Not a topic that I have heard discussed in many Llanelli pubs or in the street when the election has been discussed.

    To politicos, especially Liberals, this might be the topic that keeps them awake by night and may be the top of their agenda for Government but lets be honest guys, this is not the burning issue in this election nationally or here in Llanelli. It won’t motivate a single voters that matters – a floating voter in a marginal constitency!

    Now, here in Llanelli, while some people won’t vote Plaid in Westminster elections thinking it a wasted vote backing Plaid in a UK election many, many more will vote Plaid as the most effective means of voting Labour out – either as a result of national or local issues.

    Plaid have fought a good campaign. Part of me hopes they win because Labour deserve to lose Llanelli. Llanelli really does deserve better. Plaid can win. The Labour vote is going to go down (perhaps a lot) and the Plaid vote is going to go up (again, perhaps a lot).

    Both needs to happen for the result to meet in the middle. It is close. Whatever happens, the winner will be lucky to have a 1,000 majority whichever side wins.

    As things stand now, Llanelli is too close to call. The Liberals have not had an election campaign whatsoever. The Labour opinion poll ratings counldn’t be lower nationally.

    If Plaid can translate the anti-Labour sentiment into a local protest vote (which it seems the Liberals are picking up nationally) then I think Plaid can win here in Llanelli.

    From what I have seen and heard locally from sources in all four main parties, my estimation is as follows:-

    Labour min. 12,000 max. 14,000
    Plaid min. 11,000 max. 13,000
    Conservative min. 5,000 max 6,000
    Lib Dem min. 4,000 max. 5,500
    UKIP min. 500 max. 1,500

    Apologies for the minimum/maximum vagueness but there is indeed a margin for error.

    If Plaid hit their maximum and Labour don’t then you could see Plaid winning by anything from 0 to 1,000 votes. If Labour do well, they will win by up to 3,000 votes.

    The reality is somewhere in between, my current estimate is somewhere between a Plaid majority of 500 and a Labour majority of 1,000. We shall see!

  3. It is not a burning issue as the people are fed gutter politics by the media/ or the people don’t realise how shabby the system is….fptp has its merits but in an true democratic society it has no real place

  4. only 36% of people support the current voting system according to YouGov poll

  5. I live in NE wales btw ;)

  6. Forecast Wales:-

    L 22 C 7 LD 5 PC 5 IND 1

  7. david that poll does not apply here

  8. oops sorry misunderstood…i think plaid 6 incl. ceredigion

  9. Hywel – does this mean you agree with the other 39?

  10. LAB HOLD

  11. based on what barnaby…..lot of job losses

  12. what 39?

  13. Turnout 38 thousand. Forecast:-

    PC 14 L 13 C 5 LD 5 O 1

    PC GAIN FROM LAB.

    Hywel – the other 39 seats in Wales.

  14. From what I’ve heard from other members working in Llanelli, Dr. Myfanwy Davies has been working hard and many local people are saying they haven’t seen Nia. If the Lib Dems take some Labour votes (part of ‘Plebbmania) and Plaid do too (mostly protest votes), Plaid could gain the seat for the first time ever!

  15. Only fear of another party in UK ;) ;) will stop plaid gaining this

  16. Based on polls Hywel! Like the one just published for example.

    The hype from Plaid supporters is out of all proportion to the Wales-wide polls which have appeared. And Griffith has the additional advantage of first-time incumbency. No Plaid supporter has given a convincing explanation of why they will take quite so many votes from Labour this time in particular. Why not 2005? It will take quite a big swing (bigger still with the first-time incumbency effect) for Plaid to win here and I would be surprised to see it.

  17. Plaid are confident in Llanelli because of:
    1) winning result in WA election in 2007
    2) winning results in 2008 council election
    3) ‘wiining’ seat in 2009 Euro election
    4) Strong targetted election campain with very good canvass results.

    Plaid may be being squeezed nationally but they will do much better in ceratin targetted seats such as this one.

  18. One to watch, but and I apologise to all Welsh nationalists on here, LAB hold. Albeit very tight.

  19. The hype from Plaid supporters is out of all proportion to the Wales-wide polls which have appeared.

    Polls are usless for assessing differetn seats barnaby

    Wales has a tiny sub set sample its laughable

  20. first sentence is quoting Barnaby btw :)

  21. Plaid think they have a good chance from what I hear on twitter locally…….lab hold is indeed very plausible but not nailed on

  22. A Plaid win with a majority of 12…

  23. Labour = squeaky bum time

    Myfanwy been a passionate candidate….and I am not a plaid member

  24. God labour voters got off their at the last minute and you know it ;)

  25. Pretty much what I expected. A swing to Plaid, but nothing like enough. First-time incumbency again key, but also working-class Welsh voters’ bitter opposition to the Tories has led many who voted for Helen Mary Jones to stick with Labour for Westminster, as the clear alternative government.

  26. Helen Mary to hold this seat next May?

  27. ‘Helen Mary to hold this seat next May?’

    I might bet on a narrow Lab gain given the welsh opinion polls and the possible high turnout because of referendums on the same day.

    The Plaid vote is extremely robust here though and there is virtually no LD vote to squeeze.

  28. On second thoughts Helen Mary jones in an incument and I’ll predict a narrow PC hold.

    PC 44%
    Lab 43%
    Con 10%
    LD 3%

  29. she has lost before though as an incumbent, though only narrowly.

  30. HMJ is a very popular AM and is widely tipped to be the next Plaid leader. If she loses her seat, which has to be said, could easily happen, it will be catastrophic for Plaid Cymru.

    If the Lib Dem vote in 2007 was bigger, I would probably put money on a Lab gain, but maybe with just 3% of the vote for Plaid and Labour to squeeze, HMJ should hold on!

  31. I grew up in Pembrokeshire in the 1960s and early 70s. At that time we always referred to ‘Llanelly’ not ‘Lanelli’. Why is Llanelly not seen on the biligual road signs?

  32. Because in 1965 the council decided that the name would be spelt ‘Llanelli’ rather than ‘Llanelly’, and from that date all government agencies were only to use that spelling.

    It’s similar to ‘Conwy’ and ‘Conway’, which was changed in 1969 and the latter is never used now at all by locals (though locals pronounce it still as though there were an ‘a’ in the name). Another one is ‘Caernarfon’ and ‘Caernarvon’. This one is more salient due to the fact there is no letter ‘v’ in the Welsh alphabet.

  33. The obsessive pandering to the Welsh language lobby is one of my pet hates in British politics.

    While the rest of the world is moving to make their countries more understandableand welcoming to foreign investors and tourists, the Welsh are determined to move the other way, to the massive detriment of their economy.

    I have spent a lot of time in Shanghai and Beijing recently. They now have every road sign bilingual in mandarin and English. It is coming to something when China feels it is more important to have roadsigns in English than Wales.

  34. I entirely agree with Hemmlig. And its not like the Welsh people are really all that bothered with learning Welsh either is it? They have had to be penalised over the years if they don’t speak Welsh-such as local authorities in wales refusing to employ people who do not speak Welsh.

    …and still Welsh language speakers is way below 50%.

    Its about time the Welsh language was left to stand (or fall) on its own two feet without propping up by government and institutions.

  35. Not only are the signs in Shanghai and Beijing in English but a lot of Chinese people living there can speak English surprisingly well.

  36. I believe quite a lot of Welsh people are quite adept at English as well, Andy :-)

  37. I don’t have a strong feeling about the re-assertment of the Welsh language.
    I dislike the politically correct name Mumbai though
    (not sure it’s a fair point though),
    and the Metropolitian British haters went on and on about that Slumdog Millionaire film.

    I think PC should hold this.

  38. I don’t feel strongly about the elsh speaking Welsh language if that is what they want to do. I’m in no way ‘anti’ Welsh language.

    But as I have said on the site in the past, it does irk me to see the Welsh language being pushed forward so forcefully by government and PENALISING people that do not speak it-which is still the large majority of the Welsh people.

    If a language is a genuine national language, then it doesn’t need propping up or promoting by government. It should be allowed to stand on its own two feet.

  39. I agree with you some extent on the pandering to the Welsh-speaking lobby, but all these changes were made in the 60s, when there was a great deal less of that, it’s not as though it’s particularly recent.

    I asked my dad if there was much opposition to Conwy being changed and he said at the time most people agreed with it. His own home village (Glan Conwy), which lies opposite Conwy, also changed its spelling a couple of years after Conwy and was in a separate county at the time and was in no way a Welsh nationalist village.

    It’s also interesting that the original and longest-lived English spelling of Conwy, used for hundreds of years from it first charter is ‘Conwey’, which is pretty much the Welsh pronunciation.

    I think if the locals agree to it and there is support for it then a single standard spelling is better. It’s not like Madras becoming Chennai. or Bombay becoming Mumbai as the spelling change didn’t alter the pronunciation fundamentally.

  40. And Calcutta has also now changed, to Kolkata. Even the state capital of Kerala has changed from Trivandrum to Thiruvananthapuram, though the airport is still called Trivandrum, and frankly that’s what the locals still seem to call the city too.
    I’d be most interested to see the result here. The polls aren’t good for PC but Helen Mary Jones does seem to be an unusually effective & popular local representative. There have been several knife-edge finishes here in Assembly elections (not at Westminster) and I reckon it could happen again.

  41. Apparently Muslims in Mumbai prefer to use Bombay because a Hindu nationalist local government was responsible for changing the name in 1995.

  42. I think i’m with the muslims of Bombay on this. Not that I presume to tell the Indians how they choose to name their cities – obviously that is up to them. I just think the BBC etc should not be so ready to take on board these changes. Afterall we still refer to Munich rather than Munchen or Naples rather than Napoli, so why not Bombay, Madras, Peking etc

  43. Matt,
    Thanks for your information re – ‘Llanelli’.I am surprised it goes back as far as 1965. Certainly when I was still at school in the early 70s ‘Llanelly’ was in common use.
    I have never had a Welsh language in my life – anf if at school in Pembrokeshire now would bitterly resent having it rammed down my throat!

  44. My God you lot are incredibly ignorant of welsh history. You have no idea why the welsh language got in the state it was in.

    The welsh spelling are the original spelling, the english spellings were out of total hatred and disrepespect for the local ppl…..talk about democracy pfft

  45. Excuse the typos, its late.
    Graham you sound like you have a strange chip on your shoulder about the original brythonic languages……….its like the irrational hatred of native american languages

    Can we please not drag this political forum down with these imperialistic views that english is superior….why not bring back the cane my great grandmother was hit with for speaking welsh then?? You may love that?
    The fact some villages inside england spoke welsh until at least 1900 means you are speaking rubbish I am afraid, as I have studied this at univeristy and can offer you JSTOR journal links.

    Another thing welsh speakers generally score much higher in english GCSEs and A levels than first language english speakers…..due to the benefits of bilingulaism….a notion it seems England and parts of the USA struggles with

  46. So HMJ narrowly lost out, who will be the next leader of Plaid? Leanne Wood?

  47. Just noticed that Simon Thomas ex MP for Ceredigion has been elected on the list to offset the loss of Helen Mary Jones. Possibly not the end of the world for Plaid then.

    Might him and Leanne Wood be involved in a potential leadership battle?

  48. I thought this was quite a shock.
    What caused this?

  49. Looks like Plaid C haven’t been doing all that well for a little while.
    They seem to flatter to deceive.
    Do people fear that voting for them in Wales helps the Tories, or have they just not got the infrastructure (or the enthusiam of enough people) like the SNP?

  50. Surprised me as well Joe, the polls pretty much predicted the Plaid vote accurately but the PC vote
    was all over the place in Wales.

    It was higher than I expected in Arfon (going up) but fell more in unexpected places like Ceredigion but did very well in next door Carmarthen W (due to a popular candidate).

    I think PC is possibly a bit more insular than Plaid and does not do triangulation like the SNP.

    Plaid clearly peaked in 1999.

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