Livingston
2010 Results:
Conservative: 5158 (10.77%)
Labour: 23215 (48.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.93%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.92%)
Scottish Socialist: 242 (0.51%)
Independent: 149 (0.31%)
Majority: 10791 (22.53%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 22657 (51.1%)
SNP: 9560 (21.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6832 (15.4%)
Conservative: 4499 (10.1%)
Other: 789 (1.8%)
Majority: 13097 (29.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 2995 (8.3%)
Labour: 19108 (53%)
Liberal Democrat: 3969 (11%)
SNP: 8492 (23.6%)
Other: 1469 (4.1%)
Majority: 10616 (29.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4028 (9.4%)
Labour: 23510 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2876 (6.7%)
SNP: 11763 (27.5%)
Referendum: 444 (1%)
Other: 213 (0.5%)
Majority: 11747 (27.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Graeme Morrice (Labour)
Alison Adamson-Ross (Conservative)Graeme Morrice (Labour)Charles Dundas (Liberal Democrat) Lis Bardell (SNP) Alistair Forrest (UKIP) David Orr (BNP)Ally Hendry (SSP)Jim Slavin (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 101638
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 26.4%
Over 60: 14.6%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 98.4%
Asian: 0.8%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 60.2%
Muslim: 0.7%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 32.3%
Owner-Occupied: 63.7%
Social Housing: 30.5% (Council: 22.2%, Housing Ass.: 8.3%)
Privately Rented: 3.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2%
I find it interesting that Livingston is one of 9 seats in which the bookmakers have the SNP as favourites to win.
Apart from the 6 seats won by the SNP in 2005, the other 2 making up the nine are Ochil etc. and Dundee West
LAB REGAIN (the previous MP having been suspended from the Party)
Almond Valley is a certain Lab Gain next year but Angela Constance could come closer than expected due to her personal profile
Something like:
Lab 14000
SNP 12500
Con 2500
LD 2000
Jim Devine due to stand trial on 2nd February 2011.
Labour’s share is down a bit here, unusual for Scotland, but not sure there’s any detectable effect.
Particularly when this swing to Labour in Scotland was very much to do with preventing a Tory government Britain wide, so I find it hard to believe people would be too pre-occupied with a candidate who was no longer there.
Apart from the fact that it is precisely why he is no longer the MP here.
Here’s question:
On Robin Cook’s wikipedia page it says he defeated Tony Benn for the Labour nomination in 1983
On Tony Benn’s it says that he rejected offers from the Livingston seat to be the Labour candidate.
Does anybody know which version of events is closer to the truth?
Benn’s diaries say that after Tatchell’s defeat in Bermondsey he decided to fight in Bristol again (because Tatchell lost with courage and dignity..and so he could do the same). So he apparently told Livington CLP that he would not stand for their nomination if he had got selected for one of the new Bristol seats.
A Brown,
Untypical for Scotland in 2010 there was a swing from Lab to SNP here and Falkirk, suggesting the SNP could hold the new Almond Valley and Falkirk West.
Its hard to predict because the SNP’s top target in 2007 (Cumbernauld & Kilsyth) fell short will the SNP then went on to gain impossible Labour seats like Fife Central and Cunningham North.
I was trying not to be biased in my Airdrie & Shotts and Almond Valley predictions for next year but I’ve probably underestimated Labour.
Livingston was a good result for Labour at the GE.
I predicted a 7K majority and the majority was over 10K.
While the SNP has presumably built up a strong vote in Livingston town at least in Holyrood elections, the new Almond Valley constituency is now better for Labour due to the inclusion of Fauldhouse.
I would expect Labour to regain Almond Valley by about 3-4K.
new prediction:
Lab 16500 (+7)
SNP 13000 (-2)
Con 3500 (+2)
LD 1500 (-2)
The new town demographic is certainly interesting regardless
There was a fair swing from Labour to the SNP in here May 2010, 3 – 4%.
I think that overall there will be a swing from SNP to Labour next May but not large enough for that to be a swing from Labour to SNP in every constituency.