Comments on: Lincoln

By: myth11

myth11 — Tue, 28 Jun 2011 00:34:23 +0000

lincolnshire should be a 2 min job for the b.c with the following changes
north hykeham forum to lincoln adding 1800 voters maybe adding 200 votes to tory maj so keeping it well within labours range.
heckington rural to boston adding 4300 voters and at least 900 votes to tory maj
but i am sure bc will make things hard.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 17:30:14 +0000

There can’t be many areas where the difference between the Alliance vote in 1983 and the LD vote in 2010 was as great as the 12.5% figure for Lincolnshire. Across the UK the difference was only 2.4% (25.4% v 23.0%).

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Fri, 31 Dec 2010 17:26:31 +0000

Labour won 28.1% of the vote in England in 2010 compared to 26.9% in 1983. That improvement was almost entirely accounted for by London and Merseyside. Excluding those two areas Labour won 25.99% in 2010 compared to 25.97% in 1983. Given that fact there must be some areas where Labour did worse in 2010 compared to 1983 and I had thought that Lincolnshire might be one of them but in fact not:

Lincs, 1983:

C – 53.2%, Lab – 15.1%, All – 31.4%, Oths – 0.3%

Lincs, 2010:

C – 49.8%, Lab – 20.0%, LD – 18.9%, Oths – 11.2%

By: myth11

myth11 — Mon, 27 Dec 2010 03:58:52 +0000

sorry miss read a map number should be heckington not mertheringhan

By: myth11

myth11 — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 14:43:19 +0000

east yorks/north lincs(old humberside) can be done within quota so can notts and derbyshire as for northamptonshire it more likly to be joined with leicestershire and rutland which can be done in quota.
however i can see spilt wards happening esp in east yorks.

By: benjamin

benjamin — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 14:10:51 +0000

That rather assumes that Lincolnshire doesn’t end up being considered with any other counties or authorities. If it ends up combined with East Yorks or (more likely) Northamptonshire or another East Mids county, and a new seat ends up protruding over the border then that will have massive knock-on effects to seats here.

The advice we are giving to Lib Dem local parties is to assume that everything will change, regardless of the current size of your constituency.

By: myth11

myth11 — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 09:06:34 +0000

sorry for the bad spelling

By: myth11

myth11 — Sat, 25 Dec 2010 08:39:21 +0000

The only two seats that in lincolnshie that need boundary changes are boston (too small in voters) and sleaford (too big). Two wards form sleaford (mertheringhan and kirkby la thorpe ) to boston and rest will be in the 5% ether side of the quota.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Sun, 21 Nov 2010 14:26:36 +0000

I assume any boundary changes here will partly recreate the pre-1997 Lincoln seat, which include North Hykeham, where the Tories had a substantial lead.

The exact nature of the changes will, of course, depend on whether the current Lincolnshire is treated separately or in conjunction with the unitary authorities of North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire (and possibly even the East Riding of Yorkshire and the city of Hull on top of that).

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sun, 21 Nov 2010 12:58:16 +0000

That’s true.
It does look like the Labour vote is rather under-stated and still low turnout from it’s normal position though.
But the Tories might be able to squeeze some Lib Dems aswell.
I’d expect this seat to remain quite close for a long time.