Lincoln
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17163 (37.54%)
Labour: 16105 (35.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 9256 (20.24%)
BNP: 1367 (2.99%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Democrat: 604 (1.32%)
Independent: 222 (0.49%)
Majority: 1058 (2.32%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17642 (43.8%)
Conservative: 13798 (34.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7319 (18.2%)
Other: 1477 (3.7%)
Majority: 3844 (9.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12110 (32.9%)
Labour: 16724 (45.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6715 (18.2%)
UKIP: 1308 (3.5%)
Majority: 4614 (12.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11583 (31.2%)
Labour: 20003 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4703 (12.7%)
UKIP: 836 (2.3%)
Majority: 8420 (22.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14433 (31%)
Labour: 25563 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5048 (10.8%)
Referendum: 1329 (2.9%)
Other: 175 (0.4%)
Majority: 11130 (23.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Karl McCartney (Conservative) born Birkenhead. Educated at Birkenhead School for Boys and St David`s University College. Corporate strategy consultant. Contested Lincoln 2005.
Karl McCartney (Conservative) born Birkenhead. Educated at Birkenhead School for Boys and St David`s University College. Corporate strategy consultant. Contested Lincoln 2005.Gillian Merron(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Reginald Shore (Liberal Democrat) West Lindsey councillorNick Smith (UKIP)Robert West (BNP)Ernest Coleman (English Democrat)Nick Smith (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97159
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 5%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 74.8%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.6%
Social Housing: 21.5% (Council: 19.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
She looked very young, but not too happy.
I thought it was a bit bizarre that the candidates all just walked off the platform as soon as the result was declared, but it seemed to be after a hesitation when Returning Officer stepped off without inviting them to say anything.
I hadn’t realised Dick Taverne was a Labour MP and Minister for quite a long time (knew he was though).
I thought I heard that Margaret Beckett is standing for Shadow Cabinet today, so she’s still going strong, if so.
I felt the Lincoln result was somewhat disappointing for both main parties in 2010 – they both should have done better in a tight fight.
On the subject of Dick Taverne’s ministerial career, one of the Independent candidates in the 1973 byelection was Jean Justice. He was protesting at Taverne’s failure, when a Home Office Minister to support the campaign to obtain a posthumous pardon for James Hanratty.
‘I felt the Lincoln result was somewhat disappointing for both main parties in 2010 – they both should have done better in a tight fight.’
Another example of the Clegg effect perhaps – the Lib Dems increasing their vote in a seat which they have no chance of winning
A seat which Labour might hope to regain with the Lib Dems faltlining
These days the destiny of this seat does to some extent hang on its boundaries. A further extension of the seat outside its current lines would harm Labour, but it’s also hard to draw the boundaries in such a way as to make it totally unwinnable for Labour in a good Labour year.
It looks like it’s a slightly more average Labour seat than average Con seat – certainly on these boundaries as you say.
I think the LD vote may be proportionately more Lab,
but the Tories seem to be able to win, if sluggishly on most occasions when they lead in the national vote.
(Hopefully this comment won’t be deemed to be politically incorrect):
I always thought that Gillian Merron looked a lot like Edwina Currie so somehow it wasn’t a huge surprise when it emerged that Gillian Merron was from a Jewish background.
I’m Jewish & have no objections Andy. Since we’re a distinct ethnic group, it is obviously possible for people to look Jewish, and resemblances between us are not therefore uncommon.
With future boundary changes, which will surely take in more surrounding countryside, Labour are going to be less likely to win this seat.
That’s true.
It does look like the Labour vote is rather under-stated and still low turnout from it’s normal position though.
But the Tories might be able to squeeze some Lib Dems aswell.
I’d expect this seat to remain quite close for a long time.
I assume any boundary changes here will partly recreate the pre-1997 Lincoln seat, which include North Hykeham, where the Tories had a substantial lead.
The exact nature of the changes will, of course, depend on whether the current Lincolnshire is treated separately or in conjunction with the unitary authorities of North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire (and possibly even the East Riding of Yorkshire and the city of Hull on top of that).
The only two seats that in lincolnshie that need boundary changes are boston (too small in voters) and sleaford (too big). Two wards form sleaford (mertheringhan and kirkby la thorpe ) to boston and rest will be in the 5% ether side of the quota.
sorry for the bad spelling
That rather assumes that Lincolnshire doesn’t end up being considered with any other counties or authorities. If it ends up combined with East Yorks or (more likely) Northamptonshire or another East Mids county, and a new seat ends up protruding over the border then that will have massive knock-on effects to seats here.
The advice we are giving to Lib Dem local parties is to assume that everything will change, regardless of the current size of your constituency.
east yorks/north lincs(old humberside) can be done within quota so can notts and derbyshire as for northamptonshire it more likly to be joined with leicestershire and rutland which can be done in quota.
however i can see spilt wards happening esp in east yorks.
sorry miss read a map number should be heckington not mertheringhan
Labour won 28.1% of the vote in England in 2010 compared to 26.9% in 1983. That improvement was almost entirely accounted for by London and Merseyside. Excluding those two areas Labour won 25.99% in 2010 compared to 25.97% in 1983. Given that fact there must be some areas where Labour did worse in 2010 compared to 1983 and I had thought that Lincolnshire might be one of them but in fact not:
Lincs, 1983:
C – 53.2%, Lab – 15.1%, All – 31.4%, Oths – 0.3%
Lincs, 2010:
C – 49.8%, Lab – 20.0%, LD – 18.9%, Oths – 11.2%
There can’t be many areas where the difference between the Alliance vote in 1983 and the LD vote in 2010 was as great as the 12.5% figure for Lincolnshire. Across the UK the difference was only 2.4% (25.4% v 23.0%).
lincolnshire should be a 2 min job for the b.c with the following changes
north hykeham forum to lincoln adding 1800 voters maybe adding 200 votes to tory maj so keeping it well within labours range.
heckington rural to boston adding 4300 voters and at least 900 votes to tory maj
but i am sure bc will make things hard.