Lincoln
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17163 (37.54%)
Labour: 16105 (35.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 9256 (20.24%)
BNP: 1367 (2.99%)
UKIP: 1004 (2.2%)
English Democrat: 604 (1.32%)
Independent: 222 (0.49%)
Majority: 1058 (2.32%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17642 (43.8%)
Conservative: 13798 (34.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7319 (18.2%)
Other: 1477 (3.7%)
Majority: 3844 (9.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12110 (32.9%)
Labour: 16724 (45.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6715 (18.2%)
UKIP: 1308 (3.5%)
Majority: 4614 (12.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11583 (31.2%)
Labour: 20003 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4703 (12.7%)
UKIP: 836 (2.3%)
Majority: 8420 (22.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14433 (31%)
Labour: 25563 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5048 (10.8%)
Referendum: 1329 (2.9%)
Other: 175 (0.4%)
Majority: 11130 (23.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Karl McCartney (Conservative) born Birkenhead. Educated at Birkenhead School for Boys and St David`s University College. Corporate strategy consultant. Contested Lincoln 2005.
Karl McCartney (Conservative) born Birkenhead. Educated at Birkenhead School for Boys and St David`s University College. Corporate strategy consultant. Contested Lincoln 2005.Gillian Merron(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Reginald Shore (Liberal Democrat) West Lindsey councillorNick Smith (UKIP)Robert West (BNP)Ernest Coleman (English Democrat)Nick Smith (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97159
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 5%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 74.8%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.6%
Social Housing: 21.5% (Council: 19.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
She looked very young, but not too happy.
I thought it was a bit bizarre that the candidates all just walked off the platform as soon as the result was declared, but it seemed to be after a hesitation when Returning Officer stepped off without inviting them to say anything.
I hadn’t realised Dick Taverne was a Labour MP and Minister for quite a long time (knew he was though).
I thought I heard that Margaret Beckett is standing for Shadow Cabinet today, so she’s still going strong, if so.
I felt the Lincoln result was somewhat disappointing for both main parties in 2010 – they both should have done better in a tight fight.
On the subject of Dick Taverne’s ministerial career, one of the Independent candidates in the 1973 byelection was Jean Justice. He was protesting at Taverne’s failure, when a Home Office Minister to support the campaign to obtain a posthumous pardon for James Hanratty.
‘I felt the Lincoln result was somewhat disappointing for both main parties in 2010 – they both should have done better in a tight fight.’
Another example of the Clegg effect perhaps – the Lib Dems increasing their vote in a seat which they have no chance of winning
A seat which Labour might hope to regain with the Lib Dems faltlining
These days the destiny of this seat does to some extent hang on its boundaries. A further extension of the seat outside its current lines would harm Labour, but it’s also hard to draw the boundaries in such a way as to make it totally unwinnable for Labour in a good Labour year.
It looks like it’s a slightly more average Labour seat than average Con seat – certainly on these boundaries as you say.
I think the LD vote may be proportionately more Lab,
but the Tories seem to be able to win, if sluggishly on most occasions when they lead in the national vote.
(Hopefully this comment won’t be deemed to be politically incorrect):
I always thought that Gillian Merron looked a lot like Edwina Currie so somehow it wasn’t a huge surprise when it emerged that Gillian Merron was from a Jewish background.
I’m Jewish & have no objections Andy. Since we’re a distinct ethnic group, it is obviously possible for people to look Jewish, and resemblances between us are not therefore uncommon.
With future boundary changes, which will surely take in more surrounding countryside, Labour are going to be less likely to win this seat.
That’s true.
It does look like the Labour vote is rather under-stated and still low turnout from it’s normal position though.
But the Tories might be able to squeeze some Lib Dems aswell.
I’d expect this seat to remain quite close for a long time.
I assume any boundary changes here will partly recreate the pre-1997 Lincoln seat, which include North Hykeham, where the Tories had a substantial lead.
The exact nature of the changes will, of course, depend on whether the current Lincolnshire is treated separately or in conjunction with the unitary authorities of North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire (and possibly even the East Riding of Yorkshire and the city of Hull on top of that).
The only two seats that in lincolnshie that need boundary changes are boston (too small in voters) and sleaford (too big). Two wards form sleaford (mertheringhan and kirkby la thorpe ) to boston and rest will be in the 5% ether side of the quota.
sorry for the bad spelling
That rather assumes that Lincolnshire doesn’t end up being considered with any other counties or authorities. If it ends up combined with East Yorks or (more likely) Northamptonshire or another East Mids county, and a new seat ends up protruding over the border then that will have massive knock-on effects to seats here.
The advice we are giving to Lib Dem local parties is to assume that everything will change, regardless of the current size of your constituency.
east yorks/north lincs(old humberside) can be done within quota so can notts and derbyshire as for northamptonshire it more likly to be joined with leicestershire and rutland which can be done in quota.
however i can see spilt wards happening esp in east yorks.
sorry miss read a map number should be heckington not mertheringhan
Labour won 28.1% of the vote in England in 2010 compared to 26.9% in 1983. That improvement was almost entirely accounted for by London and Merseyside. Excluding those two areas Labour won 25.99% in 2010 compared to 25.97% in 1983. Given that fact there must be some areas where Labour did worse in 2010 compared to 1983 and I had thought that Lincolnshire might be one of them but in fact not:
Lincs, 1983:
C – 53.2%, Lab – 15.1%, All – 31.4%, Oths – 0.3%
Lincs, 2010:
C – 49.8%, Lab – 20.0%, LD – 18.9%, Oths – 11.2%
There can’t be many areas where the difference between the Alliance vote in 1983 and the LD vote in 2010 was as great as the 12.5% figure for Lincolnshire. Across the UK the difference was only 2.4% (25.4% v 23.0%).
lincolnshire should be a 2 min job for the b.c with the following changes
north hykeham forum to lincoln adding 1800 voters maybe adding 200 votes to tory maj so keeping it well within labours range.
heckington rural to boston adding 4300 voters and at least 900 votes to tory maj
but i am sure bc will make things hard.
Labour have selected Lucy Rigby to be their PPC at next GE. She currently is a Cllr in Islington
Sounds like Labour have more or less given up on this seat then…
What a silly remark.
Why not Gillian Merron?
Labour have made these sorts of selections before and down well (Lisa Nandy in Wigan, for example)
In what way did Labour do well in Wigan?
I guess a better example may be the Southwark Cllr selected for Wirral South (she was born and raised in Wirral though before moving to London)
If they are born and raised there then they will care genuinlley for the area, in which case its not a parachute and just a normal selection. There will be more than 1 seat in which people could genuinley select. I could go for Oxford W + A or Newcastle East for example
Of course as the number of public sector sinecures and ‘charity’ jobs shrinks, presumably a larger number of posh n’pushy metropolitan left wingers will be throwing their hats into the ring for parliamentary seats…possibly a problem for Labour, at the margin.
It’s a curious choice but Labour only needs a 2.3% swing here and that is probably likely to be narrowly achieved.
“If they are born and raised there then they will care genuinlley for the area, in which case its not a parachute and just a normal selection.”
if you beat the opposition fair and square, it’s a normal selection even if you don’t have any connection to the area IMO.
A Cairns: the swing required will be larger than 2.3% after boundary changes.
It’s a LibDemmy sort of view that people can only care about an area if they live there. I don’t think it’s the point at all. As a participant in Labour selections, I have always selected candidates on the basis of their politics and their ability as candidates. Local does not always equal best. It certainly does not follow that selecting a candidate from a different part of the country means that a party has given up on that area. Which Prime Minister last represented a constituency where they were born & bred?
I’m with Barnaby and Andrea on this.
Travel broadens the mind and sticking to one area all your life does have its limitations.
“Which Prime Minister last represented a constituency where they were born & bred?”
I think it would be Neville Chamberlain
Then there was also Chamberlain’s predecessor, Stanley Baldwin. He represented his home seat of Bewdley, succeeding his father.
I do generally agree that candidates don’t have to be local, and often they shouldn’t be if you want the best on offer – perhaps a future PM even.
But there is nevertheless something rather depressing about Public Affairs consultants from Islington and Southwark being selected in sensible no nonsense Midlands seats – or Wirral South.
Margaret Beckett (1974-79) has worked in industry, and is not from London.
The result in Wirral South was historically bad for the Tories last time, but a decent swing to them compared to the recent past.
‘But there is nevertheless something rather depressing about Public Affairs consultants from Islington and Southwark being selected in sensible no nonsense Midlands seats – or Wirral South.’
..but these, it seems, are the kinds of people who want to be Labour MPs.
“Which Prime Minister last represented a constituency where they were born & bred?”
Arguably, Gordon Brown?
Yes the Tory vote share increased considerably in Wirral South (though they are still an astonishing 11 points down on their 1992 level) . The stability of the Labour vote share denied them the seat.
How could I have forgotten?! Not born there, but certainly brought up there
‘But there is nevertheless something rather depressing about Public Affairs consultants from Islington and Southwark being selected in sensible no nonsense Midlands seats’
I agree but I’d add the proviso that it’s equally depressing when Tory selection committees select aristocrats to fight tough, working class, Scottish industrial seats alongside their nannies – JRM in Fife Central for example
The Rees-Moggs aren’t aristocrats if you are using the term in any sense other than meaning ‘attended public schools and own some property’.
“I’d add the proviso that it’s equally depressing when Tory selection committees select aristocrats to fight tough, working class, Scottish industrial seats alongside their nannies – JRM in Fife Central for example”
I do not think that is a valid comparison.
The Labour race relations advisors from Islington are being parachuted into safe or winnable marginal seats, consequently many of them end up as MP for these constituencies.
That’s totally different from the Tories selecting a Hooray Henry in seats like Barnsley or Fife Central, which they do not have a hope of winning.
I don’t know why there are so many of these people still around – we need more cuts.
I think there was some legislation in 2005 which allowed them to put down roots like knot weed.
The economy shrank by about 7% and we are asking people to make sacrifices.
Surely we could get rid of something like 90% of those jobs.
I pretty much agree with all the comments mentioned regarding the way the Tories seem to select candidates. They need someone who is capable of pairing up the right type of candidate with the right type of seat. In some cases it helps to be local, particularly if there are a number of issues working against each other in the seat.
I think a couple of the best pairings were Zac Goldsmith and Richmond Park and Jo Johnson in Orpington.
Simon Jones in Dagenham and Rainham was a brilliant example of how they chose a very good candidate for a seat which he was suited and although he didn’t win he came very close to kicking out Jon Cruddas.
‘I do not think that is a valid comparison.’
I take your point about Fife Central being unwinnable for the Tories but between 1997 and 2005 they picked plenty of pinn-striped banker-type candidates who had absolutely no connections to the areas they were seeking to represent, particularly so in 2001 when some horrendous candidates were allowed to stand
The A-list experiment was just as disastrous – but the whole reason it was imposed was oin recogniution of how unsuitable some of the canduates the local Tory Associations were picking – although to be fair they picked better candidates in 2005
And besides up until the birth of New Labour, nearly all Labour candidates tended to be Trade Union officials of one variety or another – and thus just as unrepresentative as the people the Tories were picking
I don’t think either party can try and lecture each other on this issue
Rigby has resigned her Islington council seat (I suppose to move full time here)
Thats correct, Rigby is moving to Lincoln and was campaigning with Lilian Greenwood MP and David Miliband for the council seat of Glebe.
I myself think the Tory vote is weak. They don’t have 20,000 votes and Labour wont suffer low turnout this time around. The only concern is how much money the tories will outspend Labour here. If its 10:1 then it could be a problem. But my suspicion is that the Tories will have so many fires to put out that they wont be able to carpet bomb constituencies to keep them blue.
Labour polled 29% in 2010 and still pulled out 35% of the vote. Rigby will get more than 20,000 votes here and there just arent enough tories here.
Labour gain in 2015.
Queen MatIlda, you are wise…
Not surprisingly an easy Labour gain in the Lincoln East electoral division of Lincs County Council, from the Tories. The Tory member, Rev Sara Cliff, had not been attending many meetings & the succesful Labour candidate Robin Renshaw, a stripling of 71, was the former member for the division. Awful turnout of less than 19% but that can’t be regarded as surprising given the time of year.