Lincoln
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17642 (43.8%)
Conservative: 13798 (34.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7319 (18.2%)
Other: 1477 (3.7%)
Majority: 3844 (9.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12110 (32.9%)
Labour: 16724 (45.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6715 (18.2%)
UKIP: 1308 (3.5%)
Majority: 4614 (12.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 11583 (31.2%)
Labour: 20003 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4703 (12.7%)
UKIP: 836 (2.3%)
Majority: 8420 (22.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 14433 (31%)
Labour: 25563 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5048 (10.8%)
Referendum: 1329 (2.9%)
Other: 175 (0.4%)
Majority: 11130 (23.9%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Gillian Merron(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Karl McCartney (Conservative) born Birkenhead. Educated at Birkenhead School for Boys and St David`s University College. Corporate strategy consultant. Contested Lincoln 2005.Gillian Merron(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Reginald Shore (Liberal Democrat) West Lindsey councillorNick Smith (UKIP)Robert West (BNP)Ernest Charles (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97159
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 22.5%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 5%
White: 97.9%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 74.8%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 15%
No Qualifications 16-74: 29.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.6%
Social Housing: 21.5% (Council: 19.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
Those are the falls in the Labour vote not the Labour share. Most of those were held by Labour with less than 40% of the vote.
The Lincoln city area returned 3 Labour and 7 Conservatives in the County Council elections.
The Parliamentary seat may have a small bit of further hinterland, looking at the notional results and comments here.
The Tory wards are in the north and south, with three Labour CC wards in the middle. The swings since 2005 are large – about 17% direct Lab to C, and even with some Labour recovery, the Conservatives could now win this without the recount I suggested earlier.
I’m going up to Lincoln quite soon for something, and will be interested to look at it properly.
I’m surprised there is this lake, marina area in the middle of it – hadn’t expected it to have anything like that until I recently found out.
The ‘lake’ in the middle of Lincoln is surprising when you see it.
The walk up to the castle and cathedral will get you out of breath but worth doing.
Both Conservatives and Labour did very well here in 1992.
Is there a local reason why the tory % has flatlined here since 1997? The Labour share has fallen by 10% since 1997.
It was Lincoln which Dick Taverne won as the first “Social Democrat” in the 1973 byelection and held in the February 1974 General Election only to lose to the furure Margaret Beckett in October 1974 who lost it to the Conservatives in 1979.
Moving on to 2010, this looks like repeat of 1979 but we need some more information from the campaign here please.
Wasn’t she Margaret Jackson in the 70’s?
That’s right, David.
Rev West standing here for the BNP
The Tory share has not flatlined here since 1997 – it is up 1.9%. But it’s a run of very poor results.
I don’t sense a lot of pro-Tory feelings as a native Lincolner, and with the polls as they are the Tories may struggle to win it. Local elections tend to be irrelevant when it comes to GEs.