Leyton and Wanstead
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15660 (45.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8538 (24.9%)
Conservative: 7795 (22.7%)
Other: 2294 (6.7%)
Majority: 7121 (20.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7393 (22.2%)
Labour: 15234 (45.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8377 (25.2%)
Green: 1523 (4.6%)
UKIP: 591 (1.8%)
Other: 155 (0.5%)
Majority: 6857 (20.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6654 (19.7%)
Labour: 19558 (58%)
Liberal Democrat: 5389 (16%)
Green: 1030 (3.1%)
Other: 1087 (3.2%)
Majority: 12904 (38.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8736 (22.2%)
Labour: 23922 (60.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5920 (15.1%)
Other: 744 (1.9%)
Majority: 15186 (38.6%)
Boundary changes: Minor changes to bring into line with ward boundaries. Gains parts of Snaresbrook and Wanstead wards from Ilford North.
Profile: This was created as a cross-borough seat in 1997, shoving together somewhat ill-matched wards from Waltham Forest and Redbridge. It covers Leyton, Leytonstone, Snaresbrook, Aldersbrook and Wanstead and includes Whipps Cross hospital and New Spitalfields Market.
Leyton – the Waltham Forest part of the seat – is an inner-city, multicultural working class area. Recent redevelopement has seen the demolition of the old tower blocks in estates like Oliver Close and their replacement with modern low rise developments, but this remains an area with problems of crime and deprivation. In contrast Wanstead is more suburban and middle-class, with attractive Edwardian housing set amongst open green spaces like Wanstead Flats. The two normally safe Conservative wards though are easily outvoted by safely Labour Leyton rendering this a safe Labour seat, though Harry Cohen saw his share of the vote drop by 12% at the last election, mostly to the benefit of the Liberal Democrats who took second place. No doubt the fall was partly due to oppositon to the war in Iraq from the 16% of the population who identified themselves as Muslim in the last census, despite the fact that Cohen himself was a staunch opponent of the war.
Current MP: Harry Cohen(Labour) born 1949, Hackney. Educated at George Gascoigne secondary and Birkbeck College. Former local government officer and accountant. First elected as MP for Leyton in 1983. A member of the Socialist campaign group and opponant of the war in Iraq. Will stand down at the next election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Edwin Northover (Conservative) Born Liverpool. Lawyer specialising in corporate law, mergers and aquisitions. Waltham Forest councillor.
Farooq Qureshi (Liberal Democrat) born Tahlian-Wala, Pakistan. Businessman, radio presenter and poet. Waltham Forest councillor since 2003, Mayor of Waltham Forest 2006-7.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89340
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 14.9%
Born outside UK: 29.7%
White: 59.1%
Black: 17.3%
Asian: 17.9%
Mixed: 3.8%
Other: 2%
Christian: 52.7%
Hindu: 2.5%
Jewish: 1.6%
Muslim: 16.6%
Sikh: 1.2%
Full time students: 7.3%
Graduates 16-74: 30%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.1%
Owner-Occupied: 56.7%
Social Housing: 22.4% (Council: 14%, Housing Ass.: 8.4%)
Privately Rented: 18.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 11.5%
Labour selection delayed – suggestions that Jack Dromey could get parachuted in;
http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/wfnews/4735845.LEYTON__Local_Labour_party_hits_out_over_Dromey_rumours/
The selection has been suspended now due to irregularities;
http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/wfnews/4777690.LEYTON__Labour_candidate_selection_suspended_over__irregularities_/
Election Calculus currently predicts:-
Lab 37.39%
C 30.27%
LibDem 21.31%
Other 11.09%
There are some reasons to have reservations with this prediction, but the two main features seem to be suggestions that Labour are holding on narrowly and the Conservatives replacing the LibDems in second place, one wonders if the lack of activity that Mary Rodgers reports is still the case.
It is conceivable that the particularly serious problems the retiring MP here has had with his expenses – it has just been announced that he will have to repay them out of his severance payment, together with the problems other their selection, could cost Labour dearly here.
if they are currently predicted as being only 7% behind, the Tories should certainly be working this seat.
There has been discussion on this site today about the Cameron poster’s (”We should be doing better” – who is we?) on the NHS in relation to the North Circular Road, on the threads for Walthamstow and, don’t ask, Dudley South. I wonder whether any of these posters have been put up on billboards in this constituency – any reports gratefully received as this is useful psepholgical information as to where the parties think the battleground lies.
The electoral calculus figures assume uniform swings in line with national polls.
The Tories support is almost all in Wanstead. In Leyton and Leytonstone people are far more likely to vote Lib Dem than Tory if they don’t vote Labour.
In Leyton and Leytonstone Labour and the Lib Dems have 9 councillors each I believe – the Tories have none.
So realistically Labour will hold the seat – only because the opposition vote (like the seat) is split down the middle. Hardly anyone in Leyton (its quite deprived) and few people in Leytonstone would dream of voting Tory.
And even Wanstead is nowhere near as Tory as it used to be. They will be doing well to get 40% of the vote in Wanstead now. Mary is dead right, there will be few extra Tory voters coming from Leyton or Leytonstone no matter how well Cameron does.
Electoral Calculus isn’t very useful in this kind of seat and I’m puzzled why Frederic relies so much on it. This seat is similar to Lewisham West and Penge – on Electoral Calculus appearing winnable for the Tories, but in reality being pretty safe for Labour because demographic factors severely limit any increase in the Tory vote, and the Lib Dems being quite strong locally amongst people who will never vote Tory.
I wonder if the LDs might spring a surprise in this seat against Labour – not winning it but unexpectedly cutting the majority.
I agree with H.Hemmelig – opinions polls for all their faults are based on interviews with real people but Electoral Calculus essentially treats voters as numbers rather than real people.
This is a safe Labout seat and, yes, Electoral Calculus is a waste of space.
Not a complete waste of space, as there are seats which swing very evenly across the country,
but it’s pretty obvious in most cases where it’s some use, and where it falls down.
I agree with most of these recent comments, and even in Wanstead, the Tories did have a scare in a by-election last year (Labour had actually won 1 or 2 seats here in 1998 in their honeymoon).
Even so, the Tories have agood chance of second place in this seat.
I agree Electoral Calculus is of limited validity, because of its assumptions of uniform swings. But sometimes I find it a useful starting point from which to interpret local factors and to raise issues. And, if I may say so, it is occasionally a corrective when people are posting what I think is rubbish, perhaps because they are engaging in wishful thinking in relation to a particular party.
I actually find some of the notional results on EC more believable than Rallings and Thrasher (e.g. Morley & Outwood)
I think the limitations of Electoral Calculus are obvious – but it does have uses because there are seats which do have a very even swing and vote very much on national issues.
One just has to apply a sensible judgement, and I’m sure Frederic, Matt and most people here do.
Sometimes I feel Lib Dems like to go a bit over the top rubbishing EC as they special plead on every single seat where the LDs have an interest, refusing to accept there could be a national swing to one of the two major parties.
One might add to recent discussion that the fact that people on this site repeatedly comment on national opinion polls – indeed seem more interested in commenting on polls than on specific constituencies – reflects the fact that most seats do swing roughly in line with national opinion. And it is more often than not possible to identify the ones which may not do so – e.g. because they are geographically remote or because minor parties are intervening or withdrawing.
Political events in individual constituencies tend to be very specific and identifiable compared to national ones. It is easy for people involved at the grassroots to over-emphasise the degree to which voters will be influenced by local factors as opposed to national ones.
In this seat, for instance, there may be some tactical voting between the Tories and LibDems, but there is little reason to believe that the Labour vote will change grossly differently from its change nationally. Admittedly, Labour may perform somewhat below par because of the circumstances in which the Labour MP is being replaced by a new candidate, but I cannot think this will cost them more than a handful of percentage points.