Lewisham East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9850 (23.61%)
Labour: 17966 (43.06%)
Liberal Democrat: 11750 (28.16%)
UKIP: 771 (1.85%)
Green: 624 (1.5%)
English Democrat: 426 (1.02%)
Others: 332 (0.8%)
Majority: 6216 (14.9%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 17771 (47.3%)
Conservative: 8784 (23.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 8028 (21.4%)
Other: 2978 (7.9%)
Majority: 8987 (23.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7512 (24.1%)
Labour: 14263 (45.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6787 (21.8%)
Green: 1243 (4%)
UKIP: 697 (2.2%)
Other: 625 (2%)
Majority: 6751 (21.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 7157 (23.8%)
Labour: 16116 (53.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4937 (16.4%)
UKIP: 361 (1.2%)
BNP: 1005 (3.3%)
Other: 464 (1.5%)
Majority: 8959 (29.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9694 (25.9%)
Labour: 21821 (58.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4178 (11.2%)
Referendum: 910 (2.4%)
Other: 805 (2.2%)
Majority: 12127 (32.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Heidi Alexander (Labour) Lewisham councillor since 2004.
Jonathan Clamp (Conservative) born London. Senior manager for BT. Kensington and Chelsea councillor 2002-2006.Heidi Alexander (Labour) Lewisham councillor since 2004.Pete Pattisson (Liberal Democrat) Journalist and teacher. Lewisham councillor.Priscilla Cotterell (Green) Roderick Reed (UKIP) James Rose (English Democrat) George Hallam (Community Need Before Private Greed)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94123
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 17.1%
Born outside UK: 19.1%
White: 73%
Black: 17.7%
Asian: 3.9%
Mixed: 3.8%
Other: 1.6%
Christian: 64.3%
Hindu: 1.9%
Muslim: 3.8%
Full time students: 4.8%
Graduates 16-74: 26.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.4%
Owner-Occupied: 58.6%
Social Housing: 28.8% (Council: 22.4%, Housing Ass.: 6.5%)
Privately Rented: 10.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.2%
The LibDems used to have real problems with the black vote in Lewisham, but there’s been a shift recently. The days when in canvassing a black face or an African name meant “Labour” are no more. The LibDems now have some black councillors in Lewisham, including the well-known Duwayne Brooks in Downham ward, which has helped bring to an end the time when some of the LibDem vote in Downham was a “white resentment” vote.
Delivering some addressed literature in Grove Park ward today, I was surprised by how many of the big houses in this now the only Tory held ward had African names for the residents. It was not long ago when this was almost all white, now it seems a place where prosperous Nigerians choose to live. That’s an interesting demographic I doubt anyone’s really worked.
Matthew, do you think the Lib Dems will gain this seat or will Labour hold on to it?
I’ve seen a few more Labour posters here today but they’re still outnumbred by the sheer number of Lib Dem posters.
Didn’t want to say on the day, but now we know. There really was a feeling amongst the LibDems they would take it, so obvious disappointment they didn’t. One of the biggest swings to the LibDems in any constituency where there weren’t any obvious factors like a sitting LibDem MP, so they should take comfort from that.
Boundary changes which lost a ward which had been worked by the LibDems and gained two that hadn’t didn’t help.
In the end the problem must have been that the local LibDems weren’t able to isolate this constituency entirely from the national poor showing by the LibDems. I do feel very bitter about the national campaign, they started off very well with the good reception for Clegg in the first TV debate, but it just seemed to fizzle out after that. Clegg got too cocky, thought it was just him that was pulling over the vote, that took attention off the local campaign work and also off Vince Cable and others who could have given gravitas to the national image, then he fumbled in the later debates and didn’t give the knockout closing or eve-of-poll speech I thought must be coming. Maybe he was too scared of the “Sheffield Rally” effect, but I think some of the jumping up and down shouting “I agree with Nick” junior fan club he attracted actually was the LibDem’s Sheffield Rally in this election.
Clegg got too cocky, thought it was just him that was pulling over the vote, that took attention off the local campaign work and also off Vince Cable and others who could have given gravitas to the national image
No-one seemed sure quite how to respond to the public mood: that applied to all the three main parties, in different ways. The LDs looked a bit like a lower league team who were 2-0 in a Cup Tie against a Premier League giant with 30 miniutes to go..On the surface, they’d be in a dominant position; but, with the lack of resources and experience, they’d not be in a position to protect their gains and stop the more powerful team from drawing level if they could. It was the same with the LDs; they could only draw off Cleggmania in those seats where local strength had really convinced potential LD voters they could win, and they couldn’t even prevail in all of those.
The Tories fell from second place to third place in this seat. There can’t have been many such instances around the country this time.
Thank goodness my prediciton of a Lib Dem gain hear was wrong. I live in this seat and was getting very worried because I there were very few Labour posters displayed and lots of Lib Dem posters (literally on every street). I became even more convinced that Lib Dems might take this seat when legg decided to hold a rally on Blackheath Common a few days before the Election. With ”Cleggmania” sweeping the country I thought they would gain this with a majority of about 200 – 300. Fortunately, this wasn’t the case and Labour held onto this seat easily.
In responce to Andy JS’s post above, the Tories had no chance in this seat despite being second in the 2005 and reducing Labour’s majority from 9,003 to 6,751. This was a two-horse race between Labour and the Lib Dems here. From what I’ve heard, the Tories gave up on this seat about 2 years ago and ploughed all their effort into the neighbouring marginal seat of Eltham. However, this was to no avail as Labour held on there too.
I can’t see why the Lib Dems decided to target this seat if they came 3rd in 2005.
Because there had been some really strong results for the party at local level. Lib Dems were going for overall control and/or the elected mayor of Lewisham this time round (another local government dream deferred in London) but with the final week campaigning blitz and general election turnout favouring Labour it wasn’t to be.