Lewisham Deptford
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19044 (55.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5899 (17.2%)
Conservative: 4392 (12.8%)
Other: 4951 (14.4%)
Majority: 13146 (38.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3773 (12.4%)
Labour: 16902 (55.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5091 (16.8%)
Green: 3367 (11.1%)
UKIP: 518 (1.7%)
Other: 742 (2.4%)
Majority: 11811 (38.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3622 (12.4%)
Labour: 18915 (65%)
Liberal Democrat: 3409 (11.7%)
Green: 1901 (6.5%)
Other: 1260 (4.3%)
Majority: 15293 (52.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4949 (14.7%)
Labour: 23827 (70.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3004 (8.9%)
Referendum: 868 (2.6%)
Other: 996 (3%)
Majority: 18878 (56.1%)
Boundary changes: Gains most of Lewisham Central from Lewisham East and part of Crofton Park from Lewisham West. Loses part of Rushey Green to Lewisham East.
Profile: Lewisham Deptford runs from the river Thames, through areas of inner city poverty to the beginnings of suburbia in the south. To the north Deptford and New Cross have a trendy arts and music scene and are popular with students and artists, but beyond that they are areas of desolate council housing and deprivation with a large black population. There are severe problems with housing and poverty – the Pepys estate here was recently the focus of the BBC documentary The Tower, chronicling the beginnings of regeneration in the area.
Further south areas like Brockley are beginning to follow the familar pattern of gentrification. Old victorian properties that had been divided up into flats and houses of multiple occupancy in the last century are now being bought up by young urban professionals attracted by cheap prices and the new transport links offered by the Docklands extention. For the time being though this is safe Labour territory, though there is substantial support for the Green party who managed their second strongest performance in the country here at the last election. Along with Brighton Pavillon and Norwich South it is one of the party`s three targetted seats for the next election.
Outgoing MP: Joan Ruddock(Labour) born 1943, Pontypool. Educated at Pontypool Grammar and Imperial College. Former chair of CND. First elected as MP for Lewisham Deptford in 1987. Undersecretary of state at Defra since 2007. She is the partner of Frank Doran, the MP for Aberdeen North (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Gemma Townsend (Conservative) Joan Ruddock(Labour) born 1943, Pontypool. Educated at Pontypool Grammar and Imperial College. Former chair of CND. First elected as MP for Lewisham Deptford in 1987. Undersecretary of state at Defra since 2007. She is the partner of Frank Doran, the MP for Aberdeen North (more information at They work for you)
Tamora Langley (Liberal Democrat) Public affairs director
Darren Johnson (Green) born 1966 Educated at Goldsmiths College. Principle speaker for the Green party 2002. Contested London mayoral election 2000, 2004. List London Assembly member since 2000. Lewisham councillor since 2002 and leader of the Green group on Lewisham council. 
Ian Page (TUSC) Educated at Kemnal Manor Comprehensive. Lewisham councillor for the Socialist Party. Contested Lewisham Deptford 2001 for Socialist Alliance, 2005 for Socialist Alternative.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 97252
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 23.4%
Over 60: 11.6%
Born outside UK: 30.1%
White: 57.2%
Black: 30.2%
Asian: 3.8%
Mixed: 4.5%
Other: 4.3%
Christian: 57.7%
Hindu: 1.5%
Muslim: 5.6%
Full time students: 9.6%
Graduates 16-74: 32.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.9%
Owner-Occupied: 41.3%
Social Housing: 41.5% (Council: 30.3%, Housing Ass.: 11.2%)
Privately Rented: 15%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.7%
Im predicting
Lab 18000 50% -5.5%
Grn 7200 20% +8.9%
Con 5760 16% +3.2%
LD 4320 12% -5.2%
TUSC 720 2%
Lab hold Swing Lab – Green 7.7%
The current vote on this seat is around what the Green vote was in 2007 in Brighton Pavilion, also they are getting a lot of national coverage with Caroline Lucas and locally with Darren Johnson. Also another factor I have carried in is a slight tactical LD – Green vote, as one of the previous posts have said there is a local informal agreement not to contest eash other in some Lewisham wards, and this could lead to the LD’s not actively campaigning.
Also if the UKIP and the BNP (Although not Likely) interveen again the Lab and Con total could be affected.
Sparky, as well as “a slight tactical LD – Green vote” here, it might be worth factoring in a LD-Green swing among the 10% of the electorate who are students. The LibDems were getting around 35% support from students 5 years ago. A new survey (see Ox E for link), seems to put the LDs on 19% among students, with that support and a little more) shifting to the Greens. If that shift is repeated in this constituency, then it could increase the LD-Green swing here by 1.7% overall.