Leicester West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9728 (27.16%)
Labour: 13745 (38.37%)
Liberal Democrat: 8107 (22.63%)
BNP: 2158 (6.02%)
UKIP: 883 (2.47%)
Green: 639 (1.78%)
TUSC: 157 (0.44%)
Independent: 289 (0.81%)
Others: 113 (0.32%)
Majority: 4017 (11.21%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 15126 (48.8%)
Conservative: 7880 (25.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5911 (19.1%)
Other: 2090 (6.7%)
Majority: 7246 (23.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 8114 (24.4%)
Labour: 17184 (51.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5803 (17.5%)
Green: 1571 (4.7%)
Other: 552 (1.7%)
Majority: 9070 (27.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8375 (25.2%)
Labour: 18014 (54.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5085 (15.3%)
Green: 1074 (3.2%)
Other: 671 (2%)
Majority: 9639 (29%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9716 (23.7%)
Labour: 22580 (55.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5795 (14.2%)
Referendum: 970 (2.4%)
Other: 1853 (4.5%)
Majority: 12864 (31.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Liz Kendall (Labour) Former Director of the Ambulance Service Network and former special advisor to Patricia Hewitt
Celia Harvey (Conservative) Territorial army officer.Liz Kendall (Labour) Former Director of the Ambulance Service Network and former special advisor to Patricia Hewitt
Peter Coley (Liberal Democrat) Born Leicester. Educated at Gateway Grammar School. BT Project manager. Leicester councillor since 1992. Leader of the Liberal Democrat group on Leicester council since 2007.
Geoff Forse (Green)Stephen Ingall (UKIP) 
Gary Reynolds (BNP) Born Braunstone. Educated at King Richard III school. Electrician.Steve Score (TUSC) Contested Leicester West 2001 for Socialist Alliance, 2005 for Socialist Alternative.Shaun Dyer (Pirate) Born 1983, Bury. Educated at All Saints RC High and De Montfort University. IT Auditor.David Bowley (Independent)Steven Huggins (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88467
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 25.2%
Over 60: 17.4%
Born outside UK: 11.8%
White: 83.2%
Black: 2.5%
Asian: 11%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 0.7%
Christian: 55.5%
Hindu: 6.3%
Muslim: 2.5%
Sikh: 2.3%
Full time students: 7.3%
Graduates 16-74: 14.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.9%
Owner-Occupied: 53.7%
Social Housing: 33.3% (Council: 26.9%, Housing Ass.: 6.4%)
Privately Rented: 10.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.4%
Yes Wilberforce. Let’s have the local Tory party putting out some leaflets containing bar charts; it’s a two horse race etc etc. Give the Lib Dems a taste of their own.
Well I Guess we will have to see who the Tory’s select and whether they use those famous “can’t win here” bar charts….
Tories would be mistaken to adopt that approach. The Lib dem vote in leicester west would possibly vote Labour to keep the Tories out.
If Labour find a popular successor to Patricia Hewitt then safe Labour hold. If they pick Ross Wilmot then the Tories would have a chance.
Ross Wilmot has been selected in Leicestershire NW which he may regret now as he has precious little chance of holding that seat
CYMRUMARK, you seem to be a victim of belief that the UK has a so called progressive majority. A hypothosis that puts forward the belief that Lib Dem and Labour votes are largely interchangeable and both will come the crunch moment unite to prevent a Tory victory where at all possible. This ignores the very clear message from what Con-Lab forced choice opinion polls have been conducted that often, when deprived of their first choice outcome, sometimes a majority of Lib Dem, or going back further Alliance, voters would rather have a Tory government than a Labour one.
If the Tories selected a “Fresh” but local Candidate – i.e not someone parachuted in; then this would undoubtedly increase their potential. As for Lib Dems voting to keep the Tories out – hmmmm I am not convinced. Leicester West and particularly wards such as Western Parks appear to be areas where “Orange Book” Lib Dems would be more inclined to endorse the Conservative than the Labour Party. I wonder if there is any truth behind of Glenis Wilmott MEP putting her name into the ring for Labour Nomination.
Celia Harvey selected as the Conservative PPC.
Kieran I do believe in the progressive majority. However my comments are based on knowing this particular constiituency and the Lib dem voters very well indeed!
I think Pete will hold the Lib dem vote up here not least as many labour may switch to him as a “halfway house”
Al;though I think the Topries are the worst of two evils I have no axe to grind here. However I very much doubt they will win.
Cymrumark, I bow to anyone with intimate knowledge of this seat and agree with you that a Tory win here is very unlikely.
The”progressive majority” I would submit only exists sporadically. As I said in my previous post, there are verifiable instances in which as far as we can tell voters for the third party would prefer a Tory government. I believe this was the case throughout most of the 1980s and is the case now. Don’t kid yourself that Tory governments only get elected due to a divided opposition. My view is that there may be a majority of Lib Dem activists who would consistently be opposed to a Tory government, but that when you look at the wider picture of Lib Dem voters things are somewhat different.
Kieran
yes I remember the polling in the alliance years. however that may be in part because Labour were perceived as to left wing for some progressive people(happy to vote alliance) but in a straight choice would have backed the Tories.
I am now politically active in wales the majority still detest the Tories and may vote tactically. Labour are very unpopular but this may help Plaid against the Tories in my own seat and the Lib dems in some areas…
The most recent Yougov poll in which the forced choice question was asked was published on June 26th. Yougov asked: “If you had to choose,which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?” 45% of Lib Dem supporters said they would prefer a Tory government as against 39% who would prefer Labour to continue in power.
My point being Cymrumark that whilst there may be pockets of people around the country who still hate the Tories because of the mines closing, the poll tax, the corn laws, whatever; the evidence suggests that this group is not numerous enough either to facilitate widespread anti-Tory tactical voting, or to prevent the result of the next GE being a comfortable Tory majority.
Kieran. With such a useless Labour government and leader its hardly surprising that a narrow majority of lib dem supporters would prefer a Tory government.
Just seen Norwich North. A win is a win and the Tories will be pleased. However they have only increased their % share from 33 to 39 mopre evidence that the next general election is not a done deal. if Labour can find a relatively painless way of ditching Brown we will be in hung parliament territory……good news for nationalists!
OK, so there is a progressive consensus except when Labour is an unpopular government, or when they are an unpopular opposition. It sounds to me like there are a few too many exceptions to this theory for it to hold much water.
As to Norwich N, I posted this morning on the relavent thread that a 40% vote share was my cut off point for whether the result was satisfactory from a Tory point of view. We missed that by less than 0.5%, so I guess I am a tad disappointed that more of the non-Labour vote didn’t go to our lass. However if the Labour vote really is going to collapse at the GE to the extent indicated by this result and all recent polls then there will be a Tory government irrespective of whether we are polling high 30s or low 40s. The Tory vote share is important, but so is the lead over Labour. Those of you banking on a hung parliament need there to be some kind of revival in Labour fortunes. Replacing Brown would certainly be a start, and would be a development that would cause me some concern.
This has been deemed to be an AWS (not surprisingly) – would Glenis Willmott (Euro MEP) be the frontrunner here?
Labour has selected Liz Kendall.
Former director of The Maternity Alliance, former associate director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, former special adviser to Harriet Harman (1997-1998) and to Patricia Hewitt (2004-2007)
Do we have any biographical details for Liz Kendall?
What is an MP who is standing down doing trying to lead, on January 6th., a bid to unseat the Prime Minister before the next General Election?
It hardly helps Labour’s prospects generally or in this seat in particular.
Once a replacement candidate is in place, the retiring MP should of course continue with constituency case work, and with constructive work as an MP such as committee work. But otherwise he or she should largely stand back and give the new candidate a clear slate to start building a presence.
This seat is in the range where until a few months ago people on this site thought Labour might be losing. Things look (only) comparatively better for Labour now; but this is not a seat where the new candidate can aford the retiring MP to rock the Party boat.
Labour’s vote has actually held up quite well here.
I put this on the wrong thread before….
I was at a Christmas meal/drink in December 2004 when someone said David Blunkett had just resigned, and I couldn’t resist telling someone else near me that Patricia Hewitt was the new Home Secretary.
I also read at the weekend that Mandelson deliberately put up the Hewitt/Hoon challenge, as a straw man, that could be knocked down easily, to try to strengthen the PM, but that’s too complicated.
Labour could well win this with a very low number of votes for an English seat, something like 12-13,000.
Surely not Andy. The Tories will probably be getting somewhere in the region of 10,000 votes here next time. Are we really going to be looking at a Labour majority of just 2-3,000 in Leicecter West?
It has happened before, in 1983, though the Tory lead is smaller now than it was then. It was I think under 2,000 on that occasion. Demographic change has helped Labour heavily in East & South but this constituency demographically has changed much less.
I agree. But 2010 is not going to be a repeat of 1983. If anything it will be much more like 1992 or 1974 I think. If Leicester West has a majority as low as 2-3,000 in those circumstances, than I think it would be evidence that it has actually moved TO the Conservatives whilst East and South have moved away.
Could we therefore be looking at one of the key marginals of the future here?
TUSC have selected Steve Score here.
If elected Steve Score will only take the average wage of a working person in Leicester West, not the inflated wage of an MP, with no extravagant expenses, second home or second job. I think he is worth voting for as a protest against sleaze and corruption, especially with Hewitt being embroiled in a cash for influence scandal.
Shaun Dyer is standing here for the Pirate Party
Steve Huggins is standing here as an Independent
I don’t think this is partisan.
Leicester West is a safe seat. Pat Hewitt has been in trouble several times. Liz Kendall has worked with her for ever.
What is Liz going to do to put some distance between the two of them before May 6th?
Lab Hold= 3,500 maj
Lab Hold
Maj 4200
Stephen Ingall selected as UKIP PPC for this seat. Reported on candidatesDOTukipDOTuk
Lab maj 3,250
I went to a hustings last night with 5 of the candidates – Cons, Green, Independant, Labour, Lib Dems – Liz Kendall for Lab easily the most fluent and confident. Has the advantage of being a new candidate – didn’t mention being Patricia Hewitt’s Special Adviser for 3 years .
Geoff for the Greens talking sense but no real base here, Lib Dem Pete a nice guy but ineffectual – libs lost 9 seats to Labour in this Constituency in last council elections having been in a v unpopular coalition w tories – not easily forgotten, Independant no chance. Tory must be the main challenger here – oh dear – no grasp of party policy and treated us to info about her daughter’s viola lessons in a”county” voice. Of course they’ve changed!
Looks like they had little choice but to select a duffer.
Lab hold – easily.
LAB HOLD
Liz Kendall came across well on Question Time.
One to watch for the future.