North West Leicestershire
2010 Results:
Conservative: 23147 (44.55%)
Labour: 15636 (30.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 8639 (16.63%)
BNP: 3396 (6.54%)
UKIP: 1134 (2.18%)
Majority: 7511 (14.45%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 21449 (45.5%)
Conservative: 16972 (36%)
Liberal Democrat: 5682 (12.1%)
Other: 3037 (6.4%)
Majority: 4477 (9.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15274 (33.9%)
Labour: 23431 (52.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4651 (10.3%)
UKIP: 1021 (2.3%)
Other: 632 (1.4%)
Majority: 8157 (18.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16113 (31%)
Labour: 29332 (56.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4492 (8.6%)
Referendum: 2088 (4%)
Majority: 13219 (25.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: North West Leicestershire is co-terminous with the local government district of the same name, and remains unchanged under the new boundaries. Part of the seat is made up of former coal mining towns and villages like Coalville and Ibstock and these form the core of Labour`s support in the area. More recently, the former coalfields have also seen some local success for the BNP. Elsewhere the seat contains more rural and Conservative voting villages in the National Forest and the market town of Ashby-de-la-Zouch. In the northern part of the constituency lies Castle Donnington, the Donnington Park racing circuit and festival venue, which had been expected to host the British Grand Prix from 2010 until the company running the track went into administration in 2009 and the East Midlands Airport.
This is a key marginal seat between the Conservatives and Labour. It was held by the Conservatives from its creation in 1983, represented by David Ashby who was caught up in the endless series of “Back to basics” scandals during the Major years – in his case over whether he was having an affair with another man, or was sharing a double bed with him to save on hotel bills. In 1997 it fell to the late David Taylor as part of the Labour landslide.
Current MP: Andrew Bridgen (Conservative) Born 1964, Burton on Trent. Educated at the Pingle School and Nottingham University. Former Royal Marines officer. Director of family produce business in Derbyshire, AB Produce.
Andrew Bridgen (Conservative) Born 1964, Burton on Trent. Educated at the Pingle School and Nottingham University. Former Royal Marines officer. Director of family produce business in Derbyshire, AB Produce.
Ross Willmott (Labour) Former regional director of a charity and university research fellow. Leicestershire county councillor 1985-1997. Leicester councillor since 1996, leader of Leicester city council 1999-2003 and since 2007. Contested Blaby 1997, East Midlands 2004 European elections.
Paul Reynolds (Liberal Democrat) Professor of International Government at the University of Westminster
Martin Green (UKIP)Ian Meller (BNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85503
Male: 49.4%
Female: 50.6%
Under 18: 22%
Over 60: 21%
Born outside UK: 2.4%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 78.2%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 16.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.2%
Owner-Occupied: 76.6%
Social Housing: 16.1% (Council: 12.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 4.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.3%
2010 By-election
David Taylor was intending to stand down from Parliament at the next election, but died of a heart attack on Boxing Day 2009. A date for a by-election (assuming it is not overtaken by the General Election) has yet to be announced.
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Come on then folks, the starter gun has been fired. lets have your predictions for this seat. The challenge is meant to be a bit of fun rather than an invitation for party bragging.
I predict
1) Con
2) Lab
3) BNP
4) Lib Dem
Majority? Go for about 6,000
At present Con gain, but not by as much as 6,000. More like 3,500.
I think that the result will be much closer – I would just about go for a Lab hold with Ross Wilmott taking over from David Taylor (RIP).
1. Lab
2. Con
– others a long way behind
3. Lib
4. BNP
Interested in whitwick your having a laugh. Willmott has no chance even in DT (RIP) was contesting this election for labour he would struggle and he is a much better LOCAL candidate rather than shipping in a Leicester city councillor
1. Con
2.Lab
3.BNP or Lib Dem
4.BNP or Lib Dem
5. UKIP
6. Christian party
Top 4 to save deposit others not too. No party other than Lib Lab Con has ever saved a deposit here
Cons Gain= 3,000 maj
Not that the election has been announced for May 6th. it is established that the Government, with a lack of outcry from the official opposition, got away with not calling a bye-election here. Shame.
CON 5000
Lab Hold
Maj 300
5,000 is a bit high but I think a Tory gain looks likely at the moment.
Con maj 4,000
TORY GAIN 5K
The 5 candidates already named above confirmed as standing and the only 5
CON GAIN
An excellent result here for the Conservatives. I thought this seat would fall to them, but not on a swing of 11or 12%. I was surprised Erewash, Sherwood and Cannock Chase fell though! Apart from Bham Edgbaston, Labour had a truly abysmal night in the Midlands. The East Mids especially, must rank as their worst area in terms of seats lost.
Labour didn’t do too bad in Gedling as well. But on the whole Labour did poorly in the Midlands, and outside of the big cities.
As Mike Smithson on PoliticalBetting had thought, it was the smallish towns in the Midlands where Labour did worst. Suburbs of big cities, like Gedling and Broxtowe, are in a different category. Ilkeston / Erewash is a town in its own right, not part of Nottingham. The same is true of Coalville and Ashby.
Swing since 1997:
Leicestershire NW 20.0%
Loughborough 8.0%
Charnwood 8.3%
What effect did the boundary changes of 1997 have on this constituency?
It was made slightly smaller, but the overall result stayed pretty much the same;
1992 actual
C 28379
Lab 27400
LD 6353
NLP 229
1992 notional
C 24735
Lab 23869
LD 5648
NLP 198
Considering the general election result here Labour must be thankful that David Taylor didn’t die a few months earlier.
Andrew Bridgen MP has been arrested on suspicion of the sexual assault of a 29-year-old.
… and released on bail, and not charged, it should be added.
Not as interesting yet as the comment on BBC news that Ed Balls spent 7/7/2005 plotting with Gordon Brown to get rid of Tony Blair.
http://order-order.com/2011/06/10/friday-caption-contest-be-alarmed-edition/
Billy Bowden may well be the greatest umpire ever but Ed Balls is definitely the worst wicketkeeper ever to play at Lord’s. I was better than him!
‘Police confirm Andrew Bridgen MP has no complaint to answer’
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/ thetorydiary/2011/06/police-confirm-andrew-bridgen-mp-has-no-complaint-to-answer.html
“The complainant has today confirmed in an interview with the Metropolitan Police that no offence occurred”
Coalville in this seat was in the then-marginal constituency of Bosworth from 1918 to 1983. (Wonder if that seat was so because of its presence?)
2015
Con 43.6 (-1)
Lab 36.5 (+6.4)
LD 10.5 (-6.1)
UKIP 4.9 (+2.7)
others 4.5
Turnout 71.7 (-1.2)