Leeds North West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11550 (26.56%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Liberal Democrat: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.76%)
UKIP: 600 (1.38%)
Green: 508 (1.17%)
English Democrat: 153 (0.35%)
Others: 121 (0.28%)
Majority: 9103 (20.94%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15090 (36%)
Labour: 14179 (33.8%)
Conservative: 11041 (26.3%)
Other: 1657 (3.9%)
Majority: 911 (2.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 11510 (25.7%)
Labour: 14735 (33%)
Liberal Democrat: 16612 (37.2%)
Green: 1128 (2.5%)
Other: 726 (1.6%)
Majority: 1877 (4.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12558 (29.6%)
Labour: 17794 (41.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11431 (26.9%)
UKIP: 668 (1.6%)
Majority: 5236 (12.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15850 (32.1%)
Labour: 19694 (39.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11689 (23.7%)
Referendum: 1325 (2.7%)
Other: 818 (1.7%)
Majority: 3844 (7.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Greg Mulholland(Liberal Democrat) born 1970, Manchester. Educated at St Ambrose College and York University. Prior to his election worked in promotional management. Leeds councillor 2003-2005. MP for Leeds North West since 2005. International development spokesman 2005-2006, schools spokesman 2006-2007, health spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Julia Mulligan (Conservative) born 1968, Bradford. Runs a marketing agency in Leeds. Craven councillor since 2006.
Judith Blake (Labour) born Leeds. Educated at Leeds Girls High School and the University of Kent. Former teacher of English as a foreign language. Leeds councillor and deputy leader of the Labour group. Contested Leeds North West 2005.Greg Mulholland(Liberal Democrat) born 1970, Manchester. Educated at St Ambrose College and York University. Prior to his election worked in promotional management. Leeds councillor 2003-2005. MP for Leeds North West since 2005. International development spokesman 2005-2006, schools spokesman 2006-2007, health spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Martin Hemingway (Green) Teacher and former archeologist. Labour councillor in Leeds 1990-2002. Contested Leeds North West 2005. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 European election.
Geoffrey Bulmer (BNP)Alan Procter (English Democrat) Trevor Bavage (Alliance for Green Socialism) Teacher.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84606
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 17.2%
Over 60: 19.3%
Born outside UK: 7.1%
White: 93.2%
Black: 0.7%
Asian: 3.9%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 1%
Christian: 66.1%
Hindu: 0.9%
Jewish: 0.6%
Muslim: 2.3%
Sikh: 0.8%
Full time students: 23.5%
Graduates 16-74: 28.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 17.4%
Owner-Occupied: 60.2%
Social Housing: 17.2% (Council: 12.4%, Housing Ass.: 4.8%)
Privately Rented: 15.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 18.1%
‘It looks like one of these somewhat illogical cases where both their voters opt for the LDs to keep each other out.’
Indeed, is this seat demographically similar at all to Sheffield Hallam?
If this seat remains in a similar form I would guess the LD vote will fall back by about 10% but not below that and Labour to advance by 9%.
“Indeed, is this seat demographically similar at all to Sheffield Hallam?”
Much more studenty but there are close similarities as you get beyond Headingly.
The LibDems should continue to do well here with so many public sector middle class voters. Labour now have control of the council which will not help their popularity in this constituency.
With the demographic trends being against the Conservatives I can see many of their supporters voting LibDem next time.
Though if boundary changes put Adel and Alwoodley wards into the same constituency then that would make it a top Conservative target.
2011 Local Election results (with change on 2010)
LD 32.0% (-11.3%)
Lab 30.8% (+9.2%)
Con 29.0% (+1.3%)
Oth 8.2% (+0.9%)
Lab won Headingley, whilst the LDems won Otley & Yeadon (small lead over Lab) and Weetwood (which was more comforable). Huge lead for the Tories in Adel and Wharfedale.
I am confused about the proposed Leeds North West and Nidderdale seat. On Anthony’s calculations, it would be a pretty comfortable Conservative seat (9058 majority). Yet Electoral Calculus has it as a three way marginal with the Tories not even 300 ahead of Labour. I was wondering if Anthony could explain this. I know that Electoral Calculus uses the transfer adjustment method but one wouldn’t expect such a wide disparity.
AW is right (though I think a 9000 majority if a bit too high) the new Leeds NW is actually based upon the present Leeds NE rather than the present Leeds NW.
It consists of 3 of the 4 present Leeds NE wards – the one lost is Chapell Allerton, Labour’s strongest ward and the Conservatives’s weakest in that constituency – one ward (Adel) from Leeds NW – which is the strongest Conservative and weakest Labour ward in present Leeds NW – and the equivalent of two thirds of a Leeds ward in rural Nidderdale – which is massively Conservative.
Beware of the Electoral Calculus calculations – many of them are total rubbish.
Thanks, Richard. That seat looks a decent prospect for the Conservatives.
Electoral Calculus has assumed that all parts of a constituency voted in the same proportions as the constituency as a whole.
As they don’t it makes all the caluclations for the new constituencies worthless at a constituency level although perhaps okay a t a national level.
For this constituency EC assumed that Alwoodley vote in 2010:
Lab 5192
Con 4029
In the local elections of 2010 it actually voted:
Con 6225
Lab 3426
Likewise Chappel Allerton is down as :
Lab 4951
Con 3842
Same proportions as Alwoodley!
Whereas the local election result was:
Lab 5796
Con 1471
Yes, there are some strong Conservative wards in the proposed Leeds NW and Nidderdale. If we consider the 2011 data:
Adel and Wharfedale
Con 4144
LD 1758
Lab 1701
Alwoodsley
Con 4254
Lab 2857
The Tories would hope that their vote in these two wards would cancel out Labour’s leads in Moortown and Roundhay, leaving the rural Nidderdale wards to decide matters their way. And it looks like a pretty well-founded hope to me.
*Alwoodley
2012 Local Election results for Leeds North West with change on 2011
LD 33.5% (+1.5%)
Lab 29.7% (-1.1%)
Con 24.6% (-4.3%)
Oth 12.2% (+3.9%)
A slight improvement in the Lib Dem position compared to last year, with the party winning 2 wards. Labour just gained Headingley (a bit tighter than their gain last year). Big Con win in Adel and Wharfedale.
The revised boundary proposals for Leeds are certainly interesting, though no doubt academic. The Tories would have had a safe seat in Otley (Guiseley, Adel, Alwoodley, Otley plus Wharefdale). Stuart Andrew would presumably have fought that one. Meanwhile, I imagine Mr Mulholland would have fought Leeds North (Weetwood, Moortown, Kirkstall, Headingley, Hyde Park).
Perhaps ‘safe’ is overdoing Otley, but based on the 2010 locals, I have the Tories winning by just over 7000 with the Lib Dems in second and Labour in third, so it’s about as near to a safe seat as the Tories would have in Leeds.
As its likely that the liberals will lose votes to labour next time is Greg’s abstention on gay marriage yesterday an attempt to appeal to some tories?
In a seat full of students and guardian readers how much will this damage him?