Comments on: Leeds North East

By: Pete Whitehead

Pete Whitehead — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 16:49:00 +0000

“I still think that the demographics in this area are moving slowly towards Labour & I’d be surprised if my party fails to win it despite the boundary change”

It should be remembered that the propsed Leeds NE bears no relation whatsoever to this constituency barring the name. That Leeds NE is the successor to Leeds East taking 3 wards from that seat together with 2 from Elmet.
Most of this seat (3 of the 4 wards) goes into the new Leeds NW, losing Chapel Allerton to a new Leeds North and gaining a chunk of Rural North Yorkshire.
Not confusing at all really is it?

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 16:33:18 +0000

I must say I’m surprised anyone seriously thought the Tories could win this seat in 2010.

By: Paul D

Paul D — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 16:11:35 +0000

You’re right about the long-term trends, which is why this seat was a huge disappointment to me (being the seat I grew up in) when Matthew failed to win it last year. A Tory incumbant, along with the boundary changes, would probably have made it a decent Tory seat for a while longer. Now there’s a good chance it will stay Labour for a long time.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 15:32:46 +0000

I still think that the demographics in this area are moving slowly towards Labour & I’d be surprised if my party fails to win it despite the boundary change, even if there’s no significant swing.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 14:35:29 +0000

The UKPR notionals have narrowly awarded this proposed seat to the Conservatives:

Con: 19,694
Lab: 19,439
LD: 8,478
BNP: 2,499

By: Bernard

Bernard — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 23:20:25 +0000

I have to respectfully disagree with Paul D.

Roundhay and Moortown have both turned Labour, both at the 2010 General Election and, more significantly, at the council level in the last 2 years.

Alwoodley was conservative but with a strong labour showing in 2010 and at recent council elections

Adel and Wharfedale was conservative but with a strong liberal democrat showing that will cross to labour, bolstering their numbers and the same applies to the areas around Harrogate.

This is far more marginal than the local council results suggest and with a swing away from the Tories at the next election, this seat could still be a problem for them to hold

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 15:45:26 +0000

Peter Dalek – Although the Leeds North in the book was fictional, there was a seat so called until I think 1955, and one called North-East. The former was a Tory seat, the latter Labour until the formation of Leeds East in 1955 and its election of Denis Healey who had represented South-East until then.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 12:23:12 +0000

Does anyone have any more details about this
Leeds NW and Nidderdale seat?

The report says very little, just that it’s predominantly rural.
It presumably skirts round Harrogate to the west and takes in territory from Skipton and Rippon.

I find it infuriating that they’ve broken up Wetherby/Harewood and Elmet.
Surely a cross-border seat should have retained that aswell somehow.

By: Paul D

Paul D — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 12:18:33 +0000

The Guardian’s notionals are a nonsense, based on an assumption that each seat votes entirely homogeneously, which is a nonsense. By far the strongest Tory ward from the old NW has moved into this seat, replacing a solid Labour ward, and it also takes in wards from Harrogate which are solidly blue. While I accept that using local election results is misleading, it’s less-so to use 2010 as the lower turnout isn’t really an issue – of course it takes no account of vote-splitting so it’s not 100% accurate, but I think it’s a better guess than the Guardian’s method

By: Bernard

Bernard — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 03:35:47 +0000

It is misleading to use local election figures as a guide to what the result would be at a General Election because of the lower turnout amongst Labour voters at local elections.

When one uses the 2010 General Election figures for the new North West Leeds and Nidderdale seat, the notional conservative majority is only 200 (as worked out by the Guardian newspaper and other sources).

When one takes into account a swing away from the Conservatives at the next election, the new North West Leeds and Nidderdale seat could be a Labour seat