Leeds North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15742 (33.12%)
Labour: 20287 (42.68%)
Liberal Democrat: 9310 (19.59%)
BNP: 758 (1.59%)
UKIP: 842 (1.77%)
Others: 596 (1.25%)
Majority: 4545 (9.56%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19652 (45.2%)
Conservative: 13053 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 9661 (22.2%)
Other: 1138 (2.6%)
Majority: 6599 (15.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13370 (32.2%)
Labour: 18632 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8427 (20.3%)
Other: 1038 (2.5%)
Majority: 5262 (12.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12451 (31.3%)
Labour: 19540 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6325 (15.9%)
UKIP: 382 (1%)
Other: 1075 (2.7%)
Majority: 7089 (17.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15409 (33.9%)
Labour: 22368 (49.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6318 (13.9%)
Referendum: 946 (2.1%)
Other: 468 (1%)
Majority: 6959 (15.3%)
Boundary changes: Loses a large swathe of countryide in Harewood ward to Elmet and Rothwell, vastly reducing the geographical size of the ward, if not the electorate. Meanwhile Leeds North-East gaining parts of the divided Chapel Allerton ward from Leeds Central, North West and East and part of Moortown from Leeds North West.
Profile: a diverse seat covering the northern part of the West Yorkshire city of Leeds. Leeds North-East was traditionally a Tory stronghold, represented by Sir Keith Joseph for thirty years, social change has made the seat more sympathetic to Labour as large victorian houses have gradually been converted into flats and homes of multiple occupancy.
The seat stretches from the countryside around the Eccup reservoir to the North, through affluent residential suburbs like Alwoodley and Moortown, with their large Jewish populations, up-and coming neighbourhoods popular with young professionals like Chapel Allerton, down to deprived inner city areas like Chapeltown, the centre of Leed`s afro-carribean community.
Leeds North East was the seat where left-winger Liz Davies was selected as the Labour candidate in 1997, but subsequented vetoed by the NEC.
Current MP: Fabian Hamilton(Labour) born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Member of Leeds City Council 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. Elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Matthew Lobley (Conservative) Leeds City councillor since 2003. Contested Leeds North East in 2005.Fabian Hamilton(Labour) born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Member of Leeds City Council 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. Elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997 (more information at They work for you)Aquila Choudhry (Liberal Democrat) Executive Director of People in Action.Warren Hendon (UKIP) Born 1964. Educated at Ponteland High and Nottingham University. Chartered engineer.Tom Redmond (BNP) 
Celia Foote (Alliance for Green Socialism) Teacher. Former Labour party member. Contested Leeds North East 2001 for Left Alliance, 2005 for the Alliance for Green Socialism, Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 European election for No2EU.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87871
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 12.8%
White: 81.3%
Black: 4.6%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 58.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 7%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 3.7%
Full time students: 5.1%
Graduates 16-74: 32.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70%
Social Housing: 18.3% (Council: 12.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.4%)
Privately Rented: 8.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.5%
How might the Tories do in a seat consisting of the following wards: Adel & Wharfedale, Alwoodley, Otley & Yeadon, Roundhay (or alternatively Moortown)?
It would have rather illogical boundaries. The more logical solution would be to remove Chapel Allerton from this seat and replace it with Adel & Wharfedale. That alone would translate a Labour majority of 4.,500 to a Conservative one of about 3,000
I imagine that the Conservatives would have narrowly held a ‘modified Leeds NW’ in 1997.
In which case the LibDem surge in 2005 wouldn’t have happened and it would now be a safe Conservative seat again.
“The more logical solution would be to remove Chapel Allerton from this seat and replace it with Adel & Wharfedale.”
An alternative would be to move Harewood in from Elmet (which was about the right size before the addition of Rothwell)
In the end the changes in Leeds are pretty drastic. “North East” is going to end up a mix of 3 wards from Leeds East (Cross Gates, Gipton, Killingbeck) and 2 from Elmet (Wetherby, Harewood). Most of the existing NE is going into Leeds NW & Nidderdale (alwoodley, Moortown, Roundhay) with Chapel Allerton joining most of the existing North West seat in a new Leeds North
2010 Local Election totals for the new Leeds NW & Nidderdale would have been
Con 22845
Lab 14410
Lib 14941
Although Labour only contested one of the Harrogate seats, presumably they’d try to work them ahead of the 2015 General Election. Additionally there’s the question of how Moortown votes nationally (it used to be a reliable Conservative ward, went Lib Dem in the late 80s/90s and stayed with them until the 2010 election – Labour have won it in 2010 and 2011 – in fact they’ve gone from just 3 of the 12 seats at the 2010 election to now holding 7 of them, and will probably win the remaining Roundhay and Moortown seats next year), but it looks a promising seat for the Tories. In reality I don’t see the Lib Dems coming anywhere near Labour’s vote total in a General Election
There was a fictional ‘Leeds North’ in Jeffrey Archers First Among Equals.
At the time it was hard to imagine because both Leeds NE and NW were Tory but I understand that the Southern wards of these seats than now for ‘Leeds North’ are very Labour.
Its amusing that the ‘plan’ to get Adel and Alwoodley into the same constituency which Pete and I have talked about has been adopted by the boundary comission.
With some of the Dales thrown in for good measure.
Of course it will annoy the BBC as they wont be able to use their ‘no Conservative MPs in northern cities’ line
It is misleading to use local election figures as a guide to what the result would be at a General Election because of the lower turnout amongst Labour voters at local elections.
When one uses the 2010 General Election figures for the new North West Leeds and Nidderdale seat, the notional conservative majority is only 200 (as worked out by the Guardian newspaper and other sources).
When one takes into account a swing away from the Conservatives at the next election, the new North West Leeds and Nidderdale seat could be a Labour seat
The Guardian’s notionals are a nonsense, based on an assumption that each seat votes entirely homogeneously, which is a nonsense. By far the strongest Tory ward from the old NW has moved into this seat, replacing a solid Labour ward, and it also takes in wards from Harrogate which are solidly blue. While I accept that using local election results is misleading, it’s less-so to use 2010 as the lower turnout isn’t really an issue – of course it takes no account of vote-splitting so it’s not 100% accurate, but I think it’s a better guess than the Guardian’s method
Does anyone have any more details about this
Leeds NW and Nidderdale seat?
The report says very little, just that it’s predominantly rural.
It presumably skirts round Harrogate to the west and takes in territory from Skipton and Rippon.
I find it infuriating that they’ve broken up Wetherby/Harewood and Elmet.
Surely a cross-border seat should have retained that aswell somehow.
Peter Dalek – Although the Leeds North in the book was fictional, there was a seat so called until I think 1955, and one called North-East. The former was a Tory seat, the latter Labour until the formation of Leeds East in 1955 and its election of Denis Healey who had represented South-East until then.
I have to respectfully disagree with Paul D.
Roundhay and Moortown have both turned Labour, both at the 2010 General Election and, more significantly, at the council level in the last 2 years.
Alwoodley was conservative but with a strong labour showing in 2010 and at recent council elections
Adel and Wharfedale was conservative but with a strong liberal democrat showing that will cross to labour, bolstering their numbers and the same applies to the areas around Harrogate.
This is far more marginal than the local council results suggest and with a swing away from the Tories at the next election, this seat could still be a problem for them to hold
The UKPR notionals have narrowly awarded this proposed seat to the Conservatives:
Con: 19,694
Lab: 19,439
LD: 8,478
BNP: 2,499
I still think that the demographics in this area are moving slowly towards Labour & I’d be surprised if my party fails to win it despite the boundary change, even if there’s no significant swing.
You’re right about the long-term trends, which is why this seat was a huge disappointment to me (being the seat I grew up in) when Matthew failed to win it last year. A Tory incumbant, along with the boundary changes, would probably have made it a decent Tory seat for a while longer. Now there’s a good chance it will stay Labour for a long time.
I must say I’m surprised anyone seriously thought the Tories could win this seat in 2010.
“I still think that the demographics in this area are moving slowly towards Labour & I’d be surprised if my party fails to win it despite the boundary change”
It should be remembered that the propsed Leeds NE bears no relation whatsoever to this constituency barring the name. That Leeds NE is the successor to Leeds East taking 3 wards from that seat together with 2 from Elmet.
Most of this seat (3 of the 4 wards) goes into the new Leeds NW, losing Chapel Allerton to a new Leeds North and gaining a chunk of Rural North Yorkshire.
Not confusing at all really is it?
I think that the Conservatives should be okay in Leeds North West and Nidderdale . If they do well enough in Adel and Alwoodley they will be able to blunt Labour’s leads in Moortown and Roundhay, leaving the rural wards to swing it blue.
That said, Pete, might the Conservatives prefer your proposed Otley and Wetherby seats?
Anybody who has been to Nidderdale (where my wife is from) would see that the new seat is not so fertile labour territory!
“North West Leeds and Nidderdale”
It hasn’t been created yet and people are already getting the name wrong
You’re right, Joe, those Nidderdale wards will really help the Tories here.
“That said, Pete, might the Conservatives prefer your proposed Otley and Wetherby seats?”
I can’t even remember what my proposal was. I made no submission in this region, but logically sucha seat would include Alwoodly, Adel & Wharfedale and Harewood as well as the two wards mentioned. Having just checked this seat would be just over the upper threshold so would not be possible anyway. But if it were I’m not sure the Conservatives would prefer it. On the current plans this area is split between three seats which are winnable (One is notionally Conservative by a largeish margin, one by a very narrow margin and one LD by a very narrow margin over the Conservatives). They should probably prefer three seats which are winnable (even if all of them are losable) than one ultra safe seat
Ah no- your proposals were for two seats- one called Otley, the other called Wetherby. Wetherby included Alwoodley, Harewood, and Wetherby plus some of the Harrogate wards from Selby and Aintsy. Your Otley had Adel, Otley, Guisely and Wharfedale (I think).
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=5800.165
On first glance, both looked pretty good for the Tories, but as you say, they prefer two marginal (but winnable seats) with one safe seat.
Sorry I misread your ‘seats’ as ‘seat’. West Yorkshire was a nightmare to work out because of the size of the wards
2012 Local Election results in Leeds North East with change on 2011
Lab 48.6% (+0.9%)
Con 25.3% (-4.6%)
LD 13.6% (+1.1%)
Oth 12.5% (+2.6%)
Lab won 3 wards, with the 4th going to the Conservatives.
Following on from Tim’s discussion on the tories prospects in Leeds on the Manchester Central thread.
If Tim is just including the five core constituencies, they are strong in Adel and Wharfedale and Alwoodley (I have visited Alwoodley).
What’s interesting is how well turnout in Leeds NE has held up relative to 1992/97.
That may well e A cairns bu this seat is a perfect example of one which the Tories should be winning but seem unable to
Before 1997, this seat had been Tory for all but 10 years of the 20th century (they lost it in the Labour landslide of 1945)
That means trhe Tories managed to hold it during the Labour-winning elections of 1964, 1966, the two in 1974, but stayed Labour in 2010 – which was their second-worst election result in the last 50 years
It’s seats like this that underline how badly the Tories are performing in Northern cities – even in areas you’d expect to be sympathetic to them
in fact what really uinderlines in on this very page – the Tories got a higher per centage of votes here in 1997 than they did 2010
If the Tories have a Northern stsategy this resukt shows what an abject failure it’s been
“in fact what really uinderlines in on this very page – the Tories got a higher per centage of votes here in 1997 than they did 2010″
Its on different boundaries! You’re not comparing like with like!
If you take the chance to read the top sentence on this page you will see that it loses a large part of harewood ward in the 2010 boundary changes cutting around 2% from the Tory vote based on the 2005 results.
Not only do you NOT know that there are Tory MPs in the City of Leeds, but you are not informed with regards the changing boundaries here either.
Well that’s true, but it’s still a seat where Labour has clearly strengthened in real terms in the last generation. The first clue that something might perhaps be changing in this seat came, rather oddly, in the 1979 general election, when Sir Keith Joseph had his majority very slightly cut against the national trend. I remember Robin Day in the BBC Studio telling Sir Keith this on election night, and the latter saying, with his usual rather worrying & bizarre tone of voice, “Yes – we’ll have to see what we can do about that, won’t we?”
I do think that Labour has been helped ever so slightly by having, in Fabian Hamilton, a candidate/MP of Jewish origin in a seat which still has a substantial Jewish population, but I wouldn’t wish to overstate this; Hamilton isn’t as closely associated with the organized Jewish community as is Ivan Lewis in Bury S. Lewis’s performances in 2001 & 2005 were exceptional & it was interesting how much better the Tories did there by standing Michelle Wiseman, who’s almost every bit as well-connected in the Jewish community as he is. Perhaps the Tories could pull of a similar trick here? (although the Jewish population is quite a bit smaller in this seat than in Bury S.)
“That means trhe Tories managed to hold it during the Labour-winning elections of 1964, 1966, the two in 1974, but stayed Labour in 2010 – which was their second-worst election result in the last 50 years”
Actually the present Leeds NE has been on much better boundaries for the Conservatives since 1983.
Without them Labour would gained it in 1992, possibly even 1987.
“It’s seats like this that underline how badly the Tories are performing in Northern cities – even in areas you’d expect to be sympathetic to them”
Why would you expect Leeds NE to be sympathetic for them?
Large non-white population and huge number of public sector workers with a heavy sprinkling of urban trendies and students.
Doesn’t sound ideal territory for the Conservatives to me.
Compare with the adjacent Elmet to see a place where the Conservatives did do well.
“Well that’s true, but it’s still a seat where Labour has clearly strengthened in real terms in the last generation.”
Yes that’s right Barnaby. I have no issue with that. It is a fact.
But to compare the raw numbers for 2010 and 1997 and say that the Tory vote has fallen since 1997 without taking any account of the boundary changes that weakened the Tory position in 2010. That approach is wrong.
I don’t disagree with you Shaun. One must always compare like with like or be guilty of sloppiness.
The decrease in the Lib Dem vote across Leeds in 1992 was pretty striking- There were big falls in their vote in Leeds East, Leeds North East and a mammoth plummet in Leeds West- That was because Michael Meadowcroft stood for the continuing Liberal Party, splitting the ‘Liberal’ vote, but the increase would have been sharp anyway as Meadowcroft was no longer the MP.
That is to say, the decrease would have been sharp anyway, but not just because Meadowcroft was no longer the MP, but also because there was a new third party candidate.