Leeds North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15742 (33.12%)
Labour: 20287 (42.68%)
Liberal Democrat: 9310 (19.59%)
BNP: 758 (1.59%)
UKIP: 842 (1.77%)
Others: 596 (1.25%)
Majority: 4545 (9.56%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19652 (45.2%)
Conservative: 13053 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 9661 (22.2%)
Other: 1138 (2.6%)
Majority: 6599 (15.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13370 (32.2%)
Labour: 18632 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8427 (20.3%)
Other: 1038 (2.5%)
Majority: 5262 (12.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12451 (31.3%)
Labour: 19540 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6325 (15.9%)
UKIP: 382 (1%)
Other: 1075 (2.7%)
Majority: 7089 (17.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15409 (33.9%)
Labour: 22368 (49.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6318 (13.9%)
Referendum: 946 (2.1%)
Other: 468 (1%)
Majority: 6959 (15.3%)
Boundary changes: Loses a large swathe of countryide in Harewood ward to Elmet and Rothwell, vastly reducing the geographical size of the ward, if not the electorate. Meanwhile Leeds North-East gaining parts of the divided Chapel Allerton ward from Leeds Central, North West and East and part of Moortown from Leeds North West.
Profile: a diverse seat covering the northern part of the West Yorkshire city of Leeds. Leeds North-East was traditionally a Tory stronghold, represented by Sir Keith Joseph for thirty years, social change has made the seat more sympathetic to Labour as large victorian houses have gradually been converted into flats and homes of multiple occupancy.
The seat stretches from the countryside around the Eccup reservoir to the North, through affluent residential suburbs like Alwoodley and Moortown, with their large Jewish populations, up-and coming neighbourhoods popular with young professionals like Chapel Allerton, down to deprived inner city areas like Chapeltown, the centre of Leed`s afro-carribean community.
Leeds North East was the seat where left-winger Liz Davies was selected as the Labour candidate in 1997, but subsequented vetoed by the NEC.
Current MP: Fabian Hamilton(Labour) born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Member of Leeds City Council 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. Elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Matthew Lobley (Conservative) Leeds City councillor since 2003. Contested Leeds North East in 2005.Fabian Hamilton(Labour) born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Member of Leeds City Council 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. Elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997 (more information at They work for you)Aquila Choudhry (Liberal Democrat) Executive Director of People in Action.Warren Hendon (UKIP) Born 1964. Educated at Ponteland High and Nottingham University. Chartered engineer.Tom Redmond (BNP) 
Celia Foote (Alliance for Green Socialism) Teacher. Former Labour party member. Contested Leeds North East 2001 for Left Alliance, 2005 for the Alliance for Green Socialism, Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 European election for No2EU.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87871
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 12.8%
White: 81.3%
Black: 4.6%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 58.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 7%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 3.7%
Full time students: 5.1%
Graduates 16-74: 32.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70%
Social Housing: 18.3% (Council: 12.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.4%)
Privately Rented: 8.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.5%
How might the Tories do in a seat consisting of the following wards: Adel & Wharfedale, Alwoodley, Otley & Yeadon, Roundhay (or alternatively Moortown)?
It would have rather illogical boundaries. The more logical solution would be to remove Chapel Allerton from this seat and replace it with Adel & Wharfedale. That alone would translate a Labour majority of 4.,500 to a Conservative one of about 3,000
I imagine that the Conservatives would have narrowly held a ‘modified Leeds NW’ in 1997.
In which case the LibDem surge in 2005 wouldn’t have happened and it would now be a safe Conservative seat again.
“The more logical solution would be to remove Chapel Allerton from this seat and replace it with Adel & Wharfedale.”
An alternative would be to move Harewood in from Elmet (which was about the right size before the addition of Rothwell)
In the end the changes in Leeds are pretty drastic. “North East” is going to end up a mix of 3 wards from Leeds East (Cross Gates, Gipton, Killingbeck) and 2 from Elmet (Wetherby, Harewood). Most of the existing NE is going into Leeds NW & Nidderdale (alwoodley, Moortown, Roundhay) with Chapel Allerton joining most of the existing North West seat in a new Leeds North
2010 Local Election totals for the new Leeds NW & Nidderdale would have been
Con 22845
Lab 14410
Lib 14941
Although Labour only contested one of the Harrogate seats, presumably they’d try to work them ahead of the 2015 General Election. Additionally there’s the question of how Moortown votes nationally (it used to be a reliable Conservative ward, went Lib Dem in the late 80s/90s and stayed with them until the 2010 election – Labour have won it in 2010 and 2011 – in fact they’ve gone from just 3 of the 12 seats at the 2010 election to now holding 7 of them, and will probably win the remaining Roundhay and Moortown seats next year), but it looks a promising seat for the Tories. In reality I don’t see the Lib Dems coming anywhere near Labour’s vote total in a General Election
There was a fictional ‘Leeds North’ in Jeffrey Archers First Among Equals.
At the time it was hard to imagine because both Leeds NE and NW were Tory but I understand that the Southern wards of these seats than now for ‘Leeds North’ are very Labour.
Its amusing that the ‘plan’ to get Adel and Alwoodley into the same constituency which Pete and I have talked about has been adopted by the boundary comission.
With some of the Dales thrown in for good measure.
Of course it will annoy the BBC as they wont be able to use their ‘no Conservative MPs in northern cities’ line
It is misleading to use local election figures as a guide to what the result would be at a General Election because of the lower turnout amongst Labour voters at local elections.
When one uses the 2010 General Election figures for the new North West Leeds and Nidderdale seat, the notional conservative majority is only 200 (as worked out by the Guardian newspaper and other sources).
When one takes into account a swing away from the Conservatives at the next election, the new North West Leeds and Nidderdale seat could be a Labour seat
The Guardian’s notionals are a nonsense, based on an assumption that each seat votes entirely homogeneously, which is a nonsense. By far the strongest Tory ward from the old NW has moved into this seat, replacing a solid Labour ward, and it also takes in wards from Harrogate which are solidly blue. While I accept that using local election results is misleading, it’s less-so to use 2010 as the lower turnout isn’t really an issue – of course it takes no account of vote-splitting so it’s not 100% accurate, but I think it’s a better guess than the Guardian’s method
Does anyone have any more details about this
Leeds NW and Nidderdale seat?
The report says very little, just that it’s predominantly rural.
It presumably skirts round Harrogate to the west and takes in territory from Skipton and Rippon.
I find it infuriating that they’ve broken up Wetherby/Harewood and Elmet.
Surely a cross-border seat should have retained that aswell somehow.
Peter Dalek – Although the Leeds North in the book was fictional, there was a seat so called until I think 1955, and one called North-East. The former was a Tory seat, the latter Labour until the formation of Leeds East in 1955 and its election of Denis Healey who had represented South-East until then.
I have to respectfully disagree with Paul D.
Roundhay and Moortown have both turned Labour, both at the 2010 General Election and, more significantly, at the council level in the last 2 years.
Alwoodley was conservative but with a strong labour showing in 2010 and at recent council elections
Adel and Wharfedale was conservative but with a strong liberal democrat showing that will cross to labour, bolstering their numbers and the same applies to the areas around Harrogate.
This is far more marginal than the local council results suggest and with a swing away from the Tories at the next election, this seat could still be a problem for them to hold
The UKPR notionals have narrowly awarded this proposed seat to the Conservatives:
Con: 19,694
Lab: 19,439
LD: 8,478
BNP: 2,499
I still think that the demographics in this area are moving slowly towards Labour & I’d be surprised if my party fails to win it despite the boundary change, even if there’s no significant swing.
You’re right about the long-term trends, which is why this seat was a huge disappointment to me (being the seat I grew up in) when Matthew failed to win it last year. A Tory incumbant, along with the boundary changes, would probably have made it a decent Tory seat for a while longer. Now there’s a good chance it will stay Labour for a long time.
I must say I’m surprised anyone seriously thought the Tories could win this seat in 2010.
“I still think that the demographics in this area are moving slowly towards Labour & I’d be surprised if my party fails to win it despite the boundary change”
It should be remembered that the propsed Leeds NE bears no relation whatsoever to this constituency barring the name. That Leeds NE is the successor to Leeds East taking 3 wards from that seat together with 2 from Elmet.
Most of this seat (3 of the 4 wards) goes into the new Leeds NW, losing Chapel Allerton to a new Leeds North and gaining a chunk of Rural North Yorkshire.
Not confusing at all really is it?