Leeds North East
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15742 (33.12%)
Labour: 20287 (42.68%)
Liberal Democrat: 9310 (19.59%)
BNP: 758 (1.59%)
UKIP: 842 (1.77%)
Others: 596 (1.25%)
Majority: 4545 (9.56%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19652 (45.2%)
Conservative: 13053 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 9661 (22.2%)
Other: 1138 (2.6%)
Majority: 6599 (15.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13370 (32.2%)
Labour: 18632 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8427 (20.3%)
Other: 1038 (2.5%)
Majority: 5262 (12.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12451 (31.3%)
Labour: 19540 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6325 (15.9%)
UKIP: 382 (1%)
Other: 1075 (2.7%)
Majority: 7089 (17.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15409 (33.9%)
Labour: 22368 (49.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6318 (13.9%)
Referendum: 946 (2.1%)
Other: 468 (1%)
Majority: 6959 (15.3%)
Boundary changes: Loses a large swathe of countryide in Harewood ward to Elmet and Rothwell, vastly reducing the geographical size of the ward, if not the electorate. Meanwhile Leeds North-East gaining parts of the divided Chapel Allerton ward from Leeds Central, North West and East and part of Moortown from Leeds North West.
Profile: a diverse seat covering the northern part of the West Yorkshire city of Leeds. Leeds North-East was traditionally a Tory stronghold, represented by Sir Keith Joseph for thirty years, social change has made the seat more sympathetic to Labour as large victorian houses have gradually been converted into flats and homes of multiple occupancy.
The seat stretches from the countryside around the Eccup reservoir to the North, through affluent residential suburbs like Alwoodley and Moortown, with their large Jewish populations, up-and coming neighbourhoods popular with young professionals like Chapel Allerton, down to deprived inner city areas like Chapeltown, the centre of Leed`s afro-carribean community.
Leeds North East was the seat where left-winger Liz Davies was selected as the Labour candidate in 1997, but subsequented vetoed by the NEC.
Current MP: Fabian Hamilton(Labour) born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Member of Leeds City Council 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. Elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Matthew Lobley (Conservative) Leeds City councillor since 2003. Contested Leeds North East in 2005.Fabian Hamilton(Labour) born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Member of Leeds City Council 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. Elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997 (more information at They work for you)Aquila Choudhry (Liberal Democrat) Executive Director of People in Action.Warren Hendon (UKIP) Born 1964. Educated at Ponteland High and Nottingham University. Chartered engineer.Tom Redmond (BNP) 
Celia Foote (Alliance for Green Socialism) Teacher. Former Labour party member. Contested Leeds North East 2001 for Left Alliance, 2005 for the Alliance for Green Socialism, Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 European election for No2EU.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87871
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 12.8%
White: 81.3%
Black: 4.6%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 58.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 7%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 3.7%
Full time students: 5.1%
Graduates 16-74: 32.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70%
Social Housing: 18.3% (Council: 12.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.4%)
Privately Rented: 8.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.5%
Yep, looks like I must be in Moortown ward as that has switched from NW to NE.
Lab Hold
Maj 1500
BNP have selected Tom Redmond
I have a bad feeling about this seat for Labour. Moortown will go Lib Dem I think along with the Meanwood gains. Roundhay and Alwoodley Conservative. The local Labour party here is very poorly organised: poor contact rate, little or no door knocking and canvassing. Put on top of that Fabians expenses issue and I think you have a recipe for a shock con gain.
Lobley has also put the effort in unlike the local Labour party- think he has been focussing on this seat for a year full time (quit his job) and although he comes across as a bit of a weed, Fabians neagtives are very strong.
Two very poor PPC options though in this seat, which is disappointing given the seats history.
The “Harewood” part of the old Leeds North East included the populous village of Shadwell. Now Shadwell (and Harewood itself) are in the new Elmet and Rothwell constituency. The residential Shadwell area was a surprisingly successful area for Labour (local government, teachers and NHS workers?) and it probably polled as many as the Tories there. So the effect of its change of constituency will probably be neutral in both seats.
Lab maj 1,000
LAB HOLD
Poor result for the Tories here- their share of the vote was higher in 1997!
Tory vote this May was higher than in 1997 – boundary changes made the 2005 Labour majority larger.
But it was a lowish swing here.
Some of the other Tory swings in Leeds and in nearby seats in Yorkshire would have been more efficiently used here.
But democracy doesn’t work like that.
I have thought for a while that there is slow but inexorable demographic change occurring here – perhaps the first sign was as long ago as 1979 when Sir Keith Joseph saw his majority slightly reduced against the national swing. The Conservatives are clearly weaker in Moortown in particular than they used to be and I think this will in time become quite a safe Labour seat.
On current boundaries you’re probably right Barnaby. What could save the Conservatives here would be if Cameron’s 10% reduction leads to an expansion of Leeds Central (removing Chapeltown from this seat) and this seat expands outwards taking Harewood from the already oversized Elmet
“Some of the other Tory swings in Leeds and in nearby seats in Yorkshire would have been more efficiently used here.”
Indeed. This seats makes an interesting contrast to the adjacent Elmet & Rothwell and yet another example of how WWC areas voted differently to guardianista/ethnic ones.
As Barnaby points out demographic changes are taking place here and it was significant I think that Labour gained both Moortown and Roundhay in the local elections.
Increasing numbers of non-white voters plus the large numbers of middle class public sector workers have turned this into a safe Labour seat.
The only hope for the Conservatives in north Leeds is to split the constituencies into ‘inner north’ and ‘outer north’ seats with Adel, Alwoodley, Otley and Roundhay combined into ‘outer north’.
2010 local elections:
‘inner north’
Lib 15110
Lab 14761
Con 8207
‘outer north’
Con 18810
Lib 15009
Lab 13028
Alternatively a reduction in constituencies could see Otley transferred into Pudsey and Headingly and Chappel Allerton moved into Leeds West and Central leaving Adel. Alwoodley, Moortown, Rounday and Moortown in a new ‘Leeds North’ constituency.