Leeds North East
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19652 (45.2%)
Conservative: 13053 (30%)
Liberal Democrat: 9661 (22.2%)
Other: 1138 (2.6%)
Majority: 6599 (15.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 13370 (32.2%)
Labour: 18632 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8427 (20.3%)
Other: 1038 (2.5%)
Majority: 5262 (12.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12451 (31.3%)
Labour: 19540 (49.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6325 (15.9%)
UKIP: 382 (1%)
Other: 1075 (2.7%)
Majority: 7089 (17.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15409 (33.9%)
Labour: 22368 (49.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6318 (13.9%)
Referendum: 946 (2.1%)
Other: 468 (1%)
Majority: 6959 (15.3%)
Boundary changes: Loses a large swathe of countryide in Harewood ward to Elmet and Rothwell, vastly reducing the geographical size of the ward, if not the electorate. Meanwhile Leeds North-East gaining parts of the divided Chapel Allerton ward from Leeds Central, North West and East and part of Moortown from Leeds North West.
Profile: a diverse seat covering the northern part of the West Yorkshire city of Leeds. Leeds North-East was traditionally a Tory stronghold, represented by Sir Keith Joseph for thirty years, social change has made the seat more sympathetic to Labour as large victorian houses have gradually been converted into flats and homes of multiple occupancy.
The seat stretches from the countryside around the Eccup reservoir to the North, through affluent residential suburbs like Alwoodley and Moortown, with their large Jewish populations, up-and coming neighbourhoods popular with young professionals like Chapel Allerton, down to deprived inner city areas like Chapeltown, the centre of Leed`s afro-carribean community.
Leeds North East was the seat where left-winger Liz Davies was selected as the Labour candidate in 1997, but subsequented vetoed by the NEC.
Current MP: Fabian Hamilton (Labour) born 1955, London. Educated at Brentwood School and York University. Former graphic designer and computer systems consultant. Member of Leeds City Council 1987-1998. Contested Leeds North East 1992. Elected as MP for Leeds North East in 1997 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Matthew Lobley (Conservative) Leeds City councillor since 2003. Contested Leeds North East in 2005.
Aqila Choudhry (Liberal Democrat) Executive Director of People in Action.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87871
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 23%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 12.8%
White: 81.3%
Black: 4.6%
Asian: 10.2%
Mixed: 2.6%
Other: 1.3%
Christian: 58.1%
Hindu: 1.1%
Jewish: 7%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 3.7%
Full time students: 5.1%
Graduates 16-74: 32.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70%
Social Housing: 18.3% (Council: 12.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.4%)
Privately Rented: 8.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16.5%
The northern-most Leeds wards are not really part of the city at all. I noticed that when I was looking at maps of the seats once.
Thank’s Pete…interesting…
“In Jeffrey Archer’s book ‘First Among Equals’ the Labour MP had the constituency of Leeds North which would have been similar to ‘inner north’. Although in reality it would have been until 1997 a Conservative seat.”
It was not only a Labour seat but a fairly safe Labour seat. I agree that even something modeled on ‘Inner North’ would not be as safe as that (and in the 1960’s/ 1970’s when the drama was set) it would have been much more like ‘Outer North’.
Its like looking at the town Ilford seats in the 1950’s, 1960’s and 1970’s when South was only marginally better than North for Labour. For example, in Oct 1974 North had a Labour majority of 1000 and South had a Labour majority of 2000.
Now Ilford North is much more like Romford or surburban Essex seats while Ilford South is more like East Ham, West Ham, Leyton & Wanstead, Barking ect.
Depends on what you regard as the city of Leeds.
It could be argued that Otley, Harewood and Wetherby wards don’t belong in Leeds borough but Adel and Alwoodley wards certainly are part of urban Leeds.
A similar situation arises with the northern wards in Bradford.
“Pete
You really need to set up a website with all this interesting info on.”
Its something I may do one day. Its still a ‘work in progress’ and would take a long time to complete for the whole of England, though I could certainly do it for just London and maybe the metroplitcan areas. These have the advantage that all of the last six elections used the same wards. Future electins will be fought on the new wards, so while I will continue to work out ward results for the next election and however many elections after that I live to see, there is a certain self-containedness about those ‘results’ I have done already.
Pete
Do your calculations show any clear demographic trends? Predictable or otherwise.
I suppose they reflect demographic changes, in the way that demographic changes are reflected in electoral trends. This is why it is interesting to look at the internal electoral geography of constituencies over a period, because the truism that there is no uniformity of swing between constituencies also applies within constituencies. A good illustration is Feltham & Heston which I disucessd on the relevent thread. At the beginning of the period Heston was much more Conservative than Feltham, being more middle class, owner occupied etc but one can see from following local elections, first the difference narrows then they swap around as Feltham beomes more Tory as was emphatically illustrated in the recent Mayoral and GLA elections. The demographic changes reflected in these trends are on the one hand the rapid increase in the number of Asian voters in Heston and on the other the growth of owner occupation in Feltham. While the latter may not necessarily have become more middle class per se, it is also a reflection of the kind of realignment of the relationship between class and voting behavior that has occurred. A similar example occurs in Birmingham Selly Oak with Moseley moving from being the strongest Tory ward at the beginning of the period to the weakest and Kings Norton trending the other way. there are numerous other examples but it has occurred to me that you may have been asking more specifically about Leeds in which case I can only state the obvious that the inner segment of the two north Leeds constituencies has shown a continued long term trend away from the Conservatives.