Lancaster and Fleetwood
2010 Results:
Conservative: 15404 (36.07%)
Labour: 15071 (35.29%)
Liberal Democrat: 8167 (19.13%)
BNP: 938 (2.2%)
UKIP: 1020 (2.39%)
Green: 1888 (4.42%)
Independent: 213 (0.5%)
Majority: 333 (0.78%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 14791 (44.6%)
Conservative: 10735 (32.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5421 (16.4%)
Other: 2199 (6.6%)
Majority: 4056 (12.2%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 22266 (42.8%)
Labour: 18095 (34.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 8453 (16.2%)
Green: 2278 (4.4%)
UKIP: 969 (1.9%)
Majority: 4171 (8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 22075 (42.2%)
Labour: 22556 (43.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5383 (10.3%)
UKIP: 741 (1.4%)
Green: 1595 (3%)
Majority: 481 (0.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23878 (40.6%)
Labour: 25173 (42.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 6802 (11.6%)
Referendum: 1516 (2.6%)
Other: 1493 (2.5%)
Majority: 1295 (2.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Eric Ollerenshaw (Conservative) Former teacher. London Assembly list member from 2000-2004 and former leader of the Conservative group. Hackney councillor 1990-2007.
Eric Ollerenshaw (Conservative) Former teacher. London Assembly list member from 2000-2004 and former leader of the Conservative group. Hackney councillor 1990-2007.
Clive Grunshaw (Labour) born Fleetwood. Educated at Baines Grammar School and, as a mature student, Lancaster University. Former dockworker and milkman, subsequently Parliamentary assistant to Joan Humble. Wyre Borough councillor since 1994, leader of Labour group on Wyre council. Lancashire county councillor since 1999.
Stuart Langhorn (Liberal Democrat) born Bingley. Educated at Lancaster University. RE teacher. Lancaster councillor since 2003.
Gina Dowding (Green) Born London. Educated at Trent Polytechnic. Former NHS health promotion specialist. Lancaster councillor 1999-2007.
Fred McGlade (UKIP) Born 1953, Belfast. Educated at Open University and Lancaster University. Historian and former soldier.
Debra Kent (BNP) 
Keith Riley (Independent) Born 1938, Blackburn. Educated at St Marys College. Wyre councillor sine 1979. Lancashire county councillor 2001-2009.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 82445
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 20.4%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 5.1%
White: 97.1%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1.1%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 76%
Muslim: 0.8%
Full time students: 15.2%
Graduates 16-74: 19.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.2%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 11.9% (Council: 5%, Housing Ass.: 6.8%)
Privately Rented: 12.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 14%
“Essentially, the Green vote in Lancaster let in the Tory.”
I’m not sure why you say that. Looking at past results, it seems to me that most Greens voted tactically. They got less votes than in 2005 in the Lancaster and Wyre constituency (I think we can assume that most of those votes came from Lancaster and not the Wyre part of the constituency). In the two county ward that the Greens won last year within the constituency (they won more votes in other wards like Lancashire SE, also in L&F) they racked up 3495 votes. These did not translate into GE votes.
Lancaster Greens ran the biggest GE campaign of their history. They produced three constituency-wide colour leaflets, an election video, a large canvassing effort (in Lancaster), and attracted much more media attention. Yet their vote fell. Surely because of the fear of letting the Tories in? Perhaps also because of the apparent surge for the Lib Dems (although the numbers don’t suggest that in an obvious way).
I think we can therefore say that those 1888 who did vote for them were amongst their most dedicated activists/supporters. Not really floating voters. And might I also suggest that core Green voters don’t support Labour because of ideological and political differences, not because the Green Party is the Labour Party for hippies.
It you were going to blame another party for Labour’s loss, then why wouldn’t you mention the BNP? After all, the demographics of BNP supporters are close to large sections of Labour support. But then you have to ask the question, why did Labour lose those people to a racist party?
merseymike
Can’t see how the Green vote let in the Tories. Seems a bit arrogant to think that the Greens would vote Labour after there appalling record on the environment, warmongering, free market economic crisis making and so forth. How about blaming the 39% who didn’t vote, the 19% who voted Liberal, the 30 odd percent who voted Tory or maybe for once, think about not fear mongering and look at the issues.
As to the electoral commission person – I had all four main parties taking numbers – I suppose I could have voted for the Independent.
Eric Ollerenshaw once represented Stamford Hill
I think the Lib Dems let in the Tories rather than the Greens. I think most Green voters probably voted tactically for Labour anyway – especially since Clive Grunshaw the Labour candidate presented himself as more palatable to people with leftist views ‘Real Values, Real Labour’ I think was a slogan used.
Either way though, Ollerenshaw has no chance of holding this next time. Hopefully Labour will put up the same candidate, who will gain some recognition, etc
It will be interesting to see over the next years how far the Greens can pick up in a seat like this where all the major parties are now tarnished over higher education as well as the economy generally. But the greens are very quiet at present, presumabaly partly becuase of lack of resources (all those lost deposits).
In response to Carl, Ollerenshaw probably won’t be fighting on these boundaries again, particularly if the reduction in the nuber of MPs and the size of the Commons goes through.
It is to be hoped that whne Lancashire is next redistributed will will get less bizare seats than this one, given the lack of communications between Lancaster and Fleetwood. But the Fylde peninsula is always going to be a problem in relation to constituency boundaries. It is a very clearly bounded geographical are and the chances are that the total electorate of the Fylde will not justify an exact number of seats.
Does anybody have suggestions as to what seats would be sensible in Fylde and North Lancashire for a Commons of 600 MPs sitting for single-member constituencies?
Tellers certainly shouldn’t be hassling voters on the way to vote. Mind you, I get much more concerned that so many people:
A) Don’t know enough about how politics works to know what tellers are doing – or come to that, that they don’t need their polling card or how the basic processes work.
B) Get so wound up about giving their numbers in the first place.
Benjamin.
?!
I’m the only person to have posted on this thread for months, and my concern was to discuss the implications of likely boundary changes for Lancashire (any thoughts welcome!) – nothing to do with tellers!. Have you accidentally posted on the thread, Benjamin, or is there some concern here that I for one don’t know about?
P.S. Apologies for my typos in my previous post.
“Does anybody have suggestions as to what seats would be sensible in Fylde and North Lancashire for a Commons of 600 MPs sitting for single-member constituencies?”
I have made some sensible suggestions which I posted here:
http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=3672.1245
doktorb has also come up with some non-sensible suggestions
I was actually responding to a post a few above yours which I just read for the first time.
Labour and the Greens are to run Lancaster City Council.
No surprise there then. Personally, I welcome Greens taking power in some of these local authorities far (away from me, of course
). Once people see what a Green led council actually means, voters won’t touch them with a barge pole.
They probably won’t have much impact in Lancaster (where I think they’ve been in coalition over the last few years anyway). But Brighton will do wonders for the anti-Green movement.
Shaun I agree – although I assume Brighton is the type of place that would love their gimmicks?
Interestingly, Brighton and Hove Council was n’t particularly car friendly when the Tories were in control – very restrictive parking, applied on Bank Holidays etc. and the recycling arrangements were n’t very user-friendly either so I shall be interested to see what happens under the Greens.
“although I assume Brighton is the type of place that would love their gimmicks?”
You’d think so wouldn’t you. But I’m not so sure you know. Its one thing saying that you want Green policies (and there was a feature not long ago on some news programme that showed so many Green voters actually don’t have the first idea what the party policies actually ARE) its quite another thing actually having them enshrined into law and having to live by them.
I think if the Green Party in Brighton try to introduce some of their more radical policies they will perhaps not only suffer in 4 years time but may even lose Caroline Lucas her seat as well.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Brighton Tories were not much better with regards cars in Brighton, as SBJME19 says. Local parties are so often ‘captured’ and controlled by officers rather than the other way around and if this is something the Brighton elite really want, they will force it onto any government. They will find the Greens much more willing than most though. If Brighton voters thought it was bad before, they may now get the same but with the brakes off.
Eric Ollerenshaw has written an interesting article about the Conservative party’s electoral weakness in the North. It is up on Conservative Home. It got me thinking about the Tory performance in the Lancashire marginals in 2010. There were swings of between 6.5% and 7% in Pendle, Morecambe, Blackpool North, and over 8% in South Ribble and Rossendale and Darwen. While not in the same league as the swings seen in Staffordshire etc, I reckon that was a pretty decent performance.
The lowest successful Tory swing was in Lancaster (of all places)- 4.8%.
Eric Ollerenshaw’s article is deeply unconvincing. It basically amounts to saying that if Tory candidates in the north go around wearing flat caps, saying ay oop and keeping pigeons in their back yard, all will be well.
The truth is much more complicated. Firstly, as Tory says, lumping the north together is a mistake, as there are many conflicting trends observable within the region. The Tories did well in some places and badly in others – mostly they did worst in urban middle class seats which is basically the same problem as further south.
I can’t help thinking that paper is a plea from Eric Ollerenshaw to the people of Lancaster that he really is a bona fide northerner and deserves to be re-elected in his super marginal seat.
He certainly is not the best person to be lecturing the party on this issue, having spent most of his political career as a councillor and GLA member in London before carpetbagging into a winnable northern seat.
“I can’t help thinking that paper is a plea from Eric Ollerenshaw to the people of Lancaster that he really is a bona fide northerner and deserves to be re-elected in his super marginal seat.”
or the start of an internal selection battle (if boundary proposals go ahead)
He was born and grew up in Lancashire, and stood in Heywood and Middleton against Jim Callaghan (The Other One) in 1992.
It is not a particularly convincing article though is an interesting addition to the debate about the Conservatives up North all the same
Eric will be in a pickle (boom tish) if the proposed boundary changes go ahead (or, as I suspect, the Conservative counter-proposal is accepted, which I largely believe they will).
The proposed “Lancaster” (and Wyre, though the Commission has oddly chosen to remove that bit) stretches from the city of Lancaster through Wyre and into rural Preston in addition to incorporating parts from Chipping and the Bowland communities. It would put Eric against Ben Wallace, and it seems clear who would win that particular battle.
The Conservative counter proposal does little to change this, other than tidy up the Ribble Valley portion, and would leave one of their own looking for a seat.
Sooo…looks like Eric is going to be in the shit now come 2015!
Maybe so but he would hardly be alone if this were true.
I’ve noticed that Mr Speaker Bercow pronounces this MP “OlleRENshaw” but I’ve always thought that “OLLerenshaw” was the authentic pronounciation. Could anyone with knowledge comment please?
Whoopsie that would be “pronunciation”. Slaps self on wrist.
Oh, and Stuart Langhorn who stood for the LibDems in 2010 has joined Labour
The reason I argued that the Green votes lost the seat for Labour is that the Greens only do well in wards which would otherwise be – and once were – safe Labour . They include working class Bulk and the two bohemian wards in Lancaster, Dukes and Castle
Of course half of Lancaster is in Morecambe and Lunesdale for electoral purposes….
Does this have the highest student population of any Conservative constituency?
It is surprisingly different to Morecambe, with which it is often lumped because of their location and marginality.
Loughborough is marginally higher (15.6 v 15.2)
They tend to be different sorts of students in Loughborough though. Emphasis on sports etc, not the more liberal arts for which Lancaster is noted.
I wonder if generally students who go to universities in medium sized towns are more inclined to the Conservatives than those who go to universities in big cities?
That really would depend – I don’t think Nottingham University students tend to be very Labour-inclined, for example.
How do you know that Barnaby, is there some table?
Ben Wallace, MP for Wyre and Preston North and MP for Lancaster and Wyre from 2005 to 2010, was on North West Tonight earlier this week in relation to the proposed BAE merger.
The new Police and Crime Commissioner for Lancashire, Clive Grunshaw, was 333 votes short of winning this seat at the 2010 election.
Commissioner Clive (as I’m sure he’s known) has told the Lancashire Evening Post that he will stay as County Councillor for Fleetwood East and Wyre Borough councillor for Pharos ward for the time being.
As CCllr he’s up next year, so I would bet on him not re-standing and resigning his district seat in time for a May 2013 by-election.
RE Grunshaw – I’d put money on you being correct.
As for student voting. Students did vote heavily Labour (over Tory at least). Labour lost because of low turnout amongst working class voters in Fleetwood, whilst rural voters went heavily Tory.
The reason for the lower swing of course is that Labour’s vote in Lancaster is untypical, well-educated, high turnout, but nonetheless left-wing. Still the more traditional Labour vote in Fleetwood stayed at home. You can see this in 2009 county elections as well. How Labour managed to lose Fleetwood West I don’t know.
Anyway that’s all in the past. Working class voters are going to have more than enough reasons to turn out in 2015 and Eric will be kicked out by a comfortable majority (well over 5k).
@ Carl
After reading your comments I feel you are desperate to see conservative out. What has Labour done ?
. Please give reasons why you want to see Conservative out of lancaster and fleetwood ? And you state working class voters have more than enough REASONS – elaborate, share your knowledge please.
I support Labour but not any longer…