The three newly announced candidates are going to have their work cut out to make advances in the short time left before the election, given that none of their parties are particularly strong here.

Given the tightening in the polls I guess it now looks like Labour hold at the moment.
I’m rather amazed where the missing voters are here.
In 1992 there was a huge turnout with approx 30, 000 for both parties.

This one looks too close to call at present.

No Boundary Changes I note

Looking through the local election results here for 2008 and 2009, I think a Tory gain looks somewhat more likely than I thought.
But it still has a substantial Labour majority, and local elections will of course depress turnout in the Labour strongholds, relatively.

But Labour have done well to win here despite generally low turnouts – this indicates they’ve won some support in Ormskirk, and some of the divisions weren’t derisory even in 2009.

On the Ormskirk seat, where a discussion started on Sefton Central,
this is how it was dispersed after 1979 (for 1983).

to
Lancashire West 41,615 electorate 42.0%
Knowsley North 38,167 38.5%
Crosby 12,615 12.7%
St Helens N 6,532 6.6%
Chorley 203 6.6%

On Wikipedia, this is what it says about
the name Ormskirk,
but is inconclusive.
”
The name ‘Ormskirk’ is Old Norse in origin and is derived from Ormres kirkja, from a personal name, Ormr (which means “serpent” or dragon), and the Old Norse word for church.[2] Ormr may have been a Viking who settled here, became a Christian and founded the church but there are no other records or archeological evidence to support this and Ormr’s identity is unknown.

There is no reference to Ormskirk in the Domesday Book of 1086 but it has been suggested that it may have been part of Lathom at that time.
…….”

As has been mentioned many times before, this seat’s colour depends essentially on turnout; if “Skem” turns out, Labour will win. If “Skem” stays at home, Labour will lose.

General Election 1979: Ormskirk
Labour Robert Kilroy-Silk 37,222 50.03 -0.3
Conservative Brian Keefe 36,364 48.87 +11.13
Workers’ Revolutionary S Pirani 820 1.10 +1.10
Majority 858 1.15
Turnout 74,406 76.11 +3.31

General Election October 1974: Ormskirk
Labour Robert Kilroy-Silk 35,392 50.33 +3.14
Conservative Brian Keefe 26,541 37.74 +1.13
Liberal David Parry 8,387 11.93 -4.27
Majority 8,851 12.59
Turnout 70,320 72.80 -4.52

General Election February 1974: Ormskirk
[BOUNDARY CHANGES]
Labour Robert Kilroy-Silk 34,807 47.19
Conservative Harold Soref 27,004 36.61
Liberal David Parry 11,949 16.20
Majority 7,803 10.58
Turnout 73,706 77.32 +4.83

General Election 1970: Ormskirk
Conservative Harold Soref 40,517 61.39 +2.62
Labour Robert Kilroy-Silk 25,486 38.61 -2.62
Majority 15,031 22.77 +5.23
Turnout 73,706 72.49 -1.38
Conservative hold

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