Lagan Valley
Notional 2005 Results:
DUP: 22337 (58.6%)
UUP: 8607 (22.6%)
Alliance: 3876 (10.2%)
SDLP: 1738 (4.6%)
SF: 1547 (4.1%)
Majority: 13730 (36%)
2005 Result:
DUP: 23289 (54.7%)
UU: 9172 (21.5%)
Alliance: 4316 (10.1%)
SF: 3197 (7.5%)
SDLP: 2598 (6.1%)
Majority: 14117 (33.2%)
Boundary Changes: Loses Glenavy to South Antrim and Dunmurry and part of Derryaghy ward to West Belfast. The spliting of a council ward is unique in boundary reviews and came after the residents of the protestant southern part of Derryaghy expressed fears for their safety if they fell under the Sinn Fein stronghold of West Belfast.
Profile: The booming suburbs south-west of Belfast. This seat is mostly affluent and middle-class, particularly around Lisburn - the largest town - though even there there remain a few old estates where there is higher deprivation. The seat is four-fifths protestest, and the minority catholic population are evenly spread. With the removal of Glenavy and Lagmore there are no more Catholic heartlands here. The seat returns 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF and 1 Alliance to the Northern Ireland Assembly.
Current MP: Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP) born 1962, Kilkeel. Former agent for Enoch Powell. First elected as Ulster Unionist MP for Lagan Valley in 1997, defected to the DUP in 2004
4 Responses
Sheffield Central
Easy to predict a DUP hold. The UUP vote is still dropping, but they are well clear of the other parties and should remain in second.
2007 saw SF overtake the Alliance, whose vote continued to fall. However, it’s safe to assume that most of the SF increase came from the nationalist-majority areas being removed from the constituency. With Lunn beginning to establish himself, the Alliance vote may well be down from 2005 but should remain ahead of the nationalist parties.
The SDLP and SF are hard-hit by the boundary changes here. 2007 saw SF well ahead of the SDLP, but the SDLP may well be ahead at the next general election - the 2005 local election results show the removed Dunmurry area as the main SF strength, while the scattered nationalist population mostly voted SDLP.
April 27th, 2008 at 1:53 amKeighley
Now Jeffrey Donaldson is leader of the DUP, one predicts that he will enjoy the kinds of majority of his predecessor.
May 12th, 2008 at 6:40 pmDartford
Er… Peter Robinson is leader-elect of the DUP isn’t he?
May 12th, 2008 at 7:07 pmKeighley
Thats right, terrible mistake to make.
May 12th, 2008 at 7:58 pm