They won back seats like South Ribble, Blackpool (North) and Morecambe – which looked as if they had fallen off the Tory radar alltogether, and won seats that were Labour in 1992 – like Pendle and Rossendale

They perhaps should have done better in certain places – Bolton, Chorley and Ormskirk – but the Tories did much better in Lancashire than other counties that are traditionally more Tory-friendly – like Somerset, Nottinghamshire and the county that used to be called Avon

Although the swing was almost exactly the national average.

It just seemed like the sort of constituency that the Conservatives should have done better in.

I thought that the Lancashire results as a whole were poor for the Conservatives with the exception of various ‘small town’ constituencies – Rossendale, Pendly, Stalybridge. Is there any split for Bury N between Bury itself and the small twosn to the north?

On the other hand I think the Conservatives came very close to a big breakthrough in Yorkshire but didn’t seem aware of the possibilities.

It was a funny old election.

St Ives
Torbay
Somerton
Taunton
Wells
Bristol W
Northavon – Thornbury
Portsmouth S
Eastleigh
Lewes
Sutton
Carshalton
Twickenham
Surbiton
Colchester
Norfolk N
Solihull
Sheffield Hallam
Leeds NW
Cheadle
Hazelgrove
Southport
Westmoreland
Edinburgh W
Aberdeenshire W – Kincardine
Brecon

The number of outer suburban constituencies lost by the Conservatives is striking.

Perhaps there was something in the ‘Cameron Project’ in attempting to win the votes of urban trendies.

But if so it failed.

So did the Conservatives employ the wrong strategy or the right strategy incompetantly done or even the wrong strategy incompetantly done?

Yes I think so. Bolton West likewise.
Chorley was a very poor result

Birmingham Hall Green is the most changed constituency but Labour would have won the 1992 version this year whereas I suspect that the Conservatives would have won the 1992 Selly Oak this year.

Chorley stands out to me as a bad Conservative result.

Including perhaps most notably this one. On these boundaries this would have been a Conservative seat in 1992. On the 1983-97 boundaries, I suspect Labour would have held on in 2010

1992 Lab
2010 Con

Kingswood
Thurrock
Ipswich
Nuneaton
Warwickshire N
Cannock
Sherwood
Dewsbury
Crewe
Rossendale
Pendle
Carlisle
Pembroke

Con 1992
Lab 2010

Harrow W
Hayes
Brent N
Ealing N
Edmonton
Westminster N
Mitcham
Southampton Test
Slough
Luton N
Luton S
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Hall Green
Gedling
Derby N
Leeds NE
Batley
Wirral S
Sefton C / Crosby
Bury S
Bolton W
Bolton NE
Chorley
Blackpool S
MSEC – Langbaugh
Tynemouth
Stirling
Dumfries
E Renfrewshire / Eastwood
Aberdeen S

Boundary changes do affect various constituencies.

A rather notable Conservative collapse in outer suburbia partly compensated by an improvement in small/medium sized towns.

That said, from my point of view, I hope Skidmore gets more entrenched. Perhaps the Lib Dems will stand down and give us a clear run. Only joking – get some of their votes to off-set any Labour takes.

Quite a working class seat I believe.

I think Skidmore’s chances will be determined by how well Labour get their act together. If they get organised, they can win. If they don’t they would need a significant national swing to deseat him.