Kingswood
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19362 (40.42%)
Labour: 16917 (35.31%)
Liberal Democrat: 8072 (16.85%)
BNP: 1311 (2.74%)
UKIP: 1528 (3.19%)
Green: 383 (0.8%)
English Democrat: 333 (0.7%)
Majority: 2445 (5.11%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21550 (46.4%)
Conservative: 15196 (32.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8108 (17.5%)
Other: 1552 (3.3%)
Majority: 6354 (13.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18618 (33.1%)
Labour: 26491 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 9089 (16.1%)
UKIP: 1444 (2.6%)
Other: 669 (1.2%)
Majority: 7873 (14%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14941 (28.4%)
Labour: 28903 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7747 (14.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.1%)
Majority: 13962 (26.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17928 (29.9%)
Labour: 32181 (53.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7672 (12.8%)
Referendum: 1463 (2.4%)
Other: 643 (1.1%)
Majority: 14253 (23.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chris Skidmore (Conservative) born 1981, Bristol. Educated at Bristol Grammar School and Oxford University. Journalist, author and advisor to David Willetts. Chairman of the Bow Group.
Chris Skidmore (Conservative) born 1981, Bristol. Educated at Bristol Grammar School and Oxford University. Journalist, author and advisor to David Willetts. Chairman of the Bow Group.Roger Berry(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Sally Fitzharris (Liberal Democrat) Journalist and teacher.Nick Foster (Green)Neil Dowdney (UKIP)Michael Carey (BNP) Michael Blundell (English Democrat)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80572
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 23.1%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 98%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 74.5%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.1%
Owner-Occupied: 82.7%
Social Housing: 11.5% (Council: 8.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.8%)
Privately Rented: 3.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.6%
I’ve argued for some time on this thread that this seat is more winnable then the notional result makes it appear. Not that I think the notional result is incorrect, but for various reasons it overstates Labour’s true position. I would say Shadsy’s odds pretty well reflect the likely chances of a Tory victory – I’m slightly disappointed as I thought they might be closer to even in which case I would have seen it as a worthwhile bet.
Conversely in Bedford’s case, I think a Tory gain, though likely, is not quite the shoe-in that the majority suggests (again for various reasons that have been rehearsed on that thread) so I would not say that because the swing required here is 6% as opposed to 4% in Bedford that this is infact a less likely gain.
IN reply to Harry Porter, Staple Hill will have been South Gloucestershire before 1974 (when Kingswood became a seperate constituency) and Thornbury before that.
The Lib Dems have selected Sally Fitzharris
I wonder whether some of these PPCs were selected as dry runs before winning at a 2nd attempt. I’m making no adverse comment against the 28-year-old Tory PPC, it just strikes me that a few must have been selected when these seats weren’t winnable. I noticed that the Tory PPCs are in their 20s in a few seats that aren’t likely to fall but could well do. See Leyton, Ellesmere Port and so on.
Ellesmere Port is indeed at least a longshot for the Tories, but Leyton isn’t.
Acoording to the bookies Ellesmere Port is a coin toss not a longshot.
Green Party in process of selecting first ever election candidate for Kingswood.
Anyone have any news on the local campaign please?
Interesting point from Lancs Observer on 25 January. Thank you
PPC news
Nick Foster has been selected to stand for the Green Party – First time we have stood!
http://www.bristolgreenparty.org.uk/General-Election/green-party-announces-general-election-candidate-for-kingswood.html
As mentioned on the Filton & Bradley Stoke thread, Neil Dowdney now appears to be the UKIP candidate here, seemingly having switched with John Knight.
Lab Hold= 500 maj
Ex Lib Dem Kingswood candidate backing Green Party
http://wiltshiregreenparty.co.uk/?p=307
CON 1500
Lab Hold
Maj 1700
Con maj 1,750
LAB HOLD
Am not a Labour supporter but this is one M.P. who deserves to hold his seat. Somehow I thing there are a number of voters who recognise his worth. Good Luck Roger Berry.
First Tory gain of the night
5% tory majority.
Con gain…
I was delighted when this result came through and thought we had a good chance of winning an overall majority. Then came Tooting.
Exactly. I had actually left the count when the Tooting result came through, and realised that Labour holds in other London seats were now likely, as of course transpired, and that therefore a hung parliament was probable as per the exit poll.
I wasn’t surprised by Tooting but I was by Hammersmith, Westminster N and especially Eltham. Some of the Conservative gains in London were also by much smaller majorities than I expected.
I was certain that a hung parliament was going to happen when I heard Gedling as it suggested that the Conservatives were going to flop in the urban areas.
The biggest surprise for me though was Birmingham Edgbaston.
Seems like the Tories did better in smaller urban areas, and on the fringes of conurbations, but that the big urban areas diverged further from the trend.
A familiar pattern.
Kingswood is a seat which unravels sharply when a government disappoints.
In that sense it’s probably the main true marginal in the Bristol area.
I was encouraged when this result came through.
I thought there was a chance of there being an overall majority, and it would be one of those elections where the Tories do better than the final predictions.
I thought Tooting was a liberal/left commentator set up to be presented as a disaster for the Tories if they didn’t get it, but like Richard, the Gedling result, and for myself, the recount at Broxtowe was the reality check.
Robert Pest had to be cut off in mid-flow when this result came in.
He was frenzying about panic in the markets from a hung Parliament,
but sat looking rather disappointed as others on the program analysed it and suggested there could be an overall majority.
Labour’s campaign in Kingswood last time seemed really badly run. My friends over there saw nowhere near as much door-knocking as there seemed to be in other parts of Bristol. I think Roger Berry probably dropped the ball and didn’t have a proper organiser until late on.
I think Skidmore’s chances will be determined by how well Labour get their act together. If they get organised, they can win. If they don’t they would need a significant national swing to deseat him.
That’s interesting.
I would never trust this seat to be safe for anyone.
It can clearly either get safer if the economy does well, or alternatively, spring an unpleasant surprise on it’s MP.
That said, from my point of view, I hope Skidmore gets more entrenched. Perhaps the Lib Dems will stand down and give us a clear run. Only joking – get some of their votes to off-set any Labour takes.
Quite a working class seat I believe.
Comparing 1992 with 2010 for constituencies that existed in both years.
1992 Lab
2010 Con
Kingswood
Thurrock
Ipswich
Nuneaton
Warwickshire N
Cannock
Sherwood
Dewsbury
Crewe
Rossendale
Pendle
Carlisle
Pembroke
Con 1992
Lab 2010
Harrow W
Hayes
Brent N
Ealing N
Edmonton
Westminster N
Mitcham
Southampton Test
Slough
Luton N
Luton S
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Hall Green
Gedling
Derby N
Leeds NE
Batley
Wirral S
Sefton C / Crosby
Bury S
Bolton W
Bolton NE
Chorley
Blackpool S
MSEC – Langbaugh
Tynemouth
Stirling
Dumfries
E Renfrewshire / Eastwood
Aberdeen S
Boundary changes do affect various constituencies.
A rather notable Conservative collapse in outer suburbia partly compensated by an improvement in small/medium sized towns.
“Boundary changes do affect various constituencies.”
Including perhaps most notably this one. On these boundaries this would have been a Conservative seat in 1992. On the 1983-97 boundaries, I suspect Labour would have held on in 2010
Though does Derby N go the other way?
Birmingham Hall Green is the most changed constituency but Labour would have won the 1992 version this year whereas I suspect that the Conservatives would have won the 1992 Selly Oak this year.
Chorley stands out to me as a bad Conservative result.
“Though does Derby N go the other way?”
Yes I think so. Bolton West likewise.
Chorley was a very poor result
The following 1992 Conservative seats are now LibDem:
St Ives
Torbay
Somerton
Taunton
Wells
Bristol W
Northavon – Thornbury
Portsmouth S
Eastleigh
Lewes
Sutton
Carshalton
Twickenham
Surbiton
Colchester
Norfolk N
Solihull
Sheffield Hallam
Leeds NW
Cheadle
Hazelgrove
Southport
Westmoreland
Edinburgh W
Aberdeenshire W – Kincardine
Brecon
The number of outer suburban constituencies lost by the Conservatives is striking.
Perhaps there was something in the ‘Cameron Project’ in attempting to win the votes of urban trendies.
But if so it failed.
So did the Conservatives employ the wrong strategy or the right strategy incompetantly done or even the wrong strategy incompetantly done?
“Chorley was a very poor result”
Although the swing was almost exactly the national average.
It just seemed like the sort of constituency that the Conservatives should have done better in.
I thought that the Lancashire results as a whole were poor for the Conservatives with the exception of various ‘small town’ constituencies – Rossendale, Pendly, Stalybridge. Is there any split for Bury N between Bury itself and the small twosn to the north?
On the other hand I think the Conservatives came very close to a big breakthrough in Yorkshire but didn’t seem aware of the possibilities.
It was a funny old election.
Lancashire was pretty good for the Tories in the last election
They won back seats like South Ribble, Blackpool (North) and Morecambe – which looked as if they had fallen off the Tory radar alltogether, and won seats that were Labour in 1992 – like Pendle and Rossendale
They perhaps should have done better in certain places – Bolton, Chorley and Ormskirk – but the Tories did much better in Lancashire than other counties that are traditionally more Tory-friendly – like Somerset, Nottinghamshire and the county that used to be called Avon