Kingswood
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 21550 (46.4%)
Conservative: 15196 (32.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8108 (17.5%)
Other: 1552 (3.3%)
Majority: 6354 (13.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18618 (33.1%)
Labour: 26491 (47%)
Liberal Democrat: 9089 (16.1%)
UKIP: 1444 (2.6%)
Other: 669 (1.2%)
Majority: 7873 (14%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14941 (28.4%)
Labour: 28903 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7747 (14.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.1%)
Majority: 13962 (26.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17928 (29.9%)
Labour: 32181 (53.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 7672 (12.8%)
Referendum: 1463 (2.4%)
Other: 643 (1.1%)
Majority: 14253 (23.8%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Roger Berry(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Chris Skidmore (Conservative) born 1981, Bristol. Educated at Bristol Grammar School and Oxford University. Journalist, author and advisor to David Willetts. Chairman of the Bow Group.Roger Berry(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Sally Fitzharris (Liberal Democrat) Journalist and teacher.Nick Foster (Green)John Knight (UKIP) Michael Blundell (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 80572
Male: 49%
Female: 51%
Under 18: 23.1%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 98%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 74.5%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 27.1%
Owner-Occupied: 82.7%
Social Housing: 11.5% (Council: 8.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.8%)
Privately Rented: 3.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.6%
Roger Berry has bought (among many other things) a £169 toaster.
What an odd thing to lose a constituency with.
Tim Jones’s point is probably correct.
I think it might be true of 2001 aswell as 2005.
Labour have done very well here in the three elections they’ve won recently, but of course, the key point is turnout has held up better than in safe Labour seats.
Which seats has Staple Hill been in since 1885?
Ladbrokes:
4/9 Con
13/8 Lab
100 LD
Kieran W reported on October 16th. that the odds for Bedford are also 4/9 on the Tories, but 9/2 Labour and 4/1 LibDems. Yet the Tories need a 6.1% swing here as opposed to 4.1% in Bedford.
The situation is different in Bedford because of a recent LibDem victory in the mayoral by-election, as the difference in LibDem odds show, but all the same I can’t help thinking that the Tories are more likely to win bedford than Kingswood. The The hypothetical national swing from Labour to Conservative is currently around 9% (I haven’t checked exactly just now. It is far from inconceivable that Labour could keep the swing here to 3% below the national average (although I don’t currently know of any particular reasons for this to happen, or that Labour could recover further before the General Election. None of which is to say that the Tories are not, or should not be, favourites here.
Thanks for posting, Shadsy: there seems to have been little information placed on this site recently about Kingswood, which is surprising for a marginal seat near Bristol. Reports from locals as to what is happening on the ground would, as ever, be very welcome.
I’ve argued for some time on this thread that this seat is more winnable then the notional result makes it appear. Not that I think the notional result is incorrect, but for various reasons it overstates Labour’s true position. I would say Shadsy’s odds pretty well reflect the likely chances of a Tory victory – I’m slightly disappointed as I thought they might be closer to even in which case I would have seen it as a worthwhile bet.
Conversely in Bedford’s case, I think a Tory gain, though likely, is not quite the shoe-in that the majority suggests (again for various reasons that have been rehearsed on that thread) so I would not say that because the swing required here is 6% as opposed to 4% in Bedford that this is infact a less likely gain.
IN reply to Harry Porter, Staple Hill will have been South Gloucestershire before 1974 (when Kingswood became a seperate constituency) and Thornbury before that.
The Lib Dems have selected Sally Fitzharris
I wonder whether some of these PPCs were selected as dry runs before winning at a 2nd attempt. I’m making no adverse comment against the 28-year-old Tory PPC, it just strikes me that a few must have been selected when these seats weren’t winnable. I noticed that the Tory PPCs are in their 20s in a few seats that aren’t likely to fall but could well do. See Leyton, Ellesmere Port and so on.
Ellesmere Port is indeed at least a longshot for the Tories, but Leyton isn’t.
Acoording to the bookies Ellesmere Port is a coin toss not a longshot.
Green Party in process of selecting first ever election candidate for Kingswood.
Anyone have any news on the local campaign please?
Interesting point from Lancs Observer on 25 January. Thank you
PPC news
Nick Foster has been selected to stand for the Green Party – First time we have stood!