Kingston and Surbiton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20868 (36.54%)
Labour: 5337 (9.34%)
Liberal Democrat: 28428 (49.78%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.54%)
Green: 555 (0.97%)
Monster Raving Loony: 247 (0.43%)
Others: 226 (0.4%)
Majority: 7560 (13.24%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 25607 (51.1%)
Conservative: 16559 (33%)
Labour: 6593 (13.1%)
Other: 1387 (2.8%)
Majority: 9048 (18%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16431 (33%)
Labour: 6553 (13.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 25397 (51%)
UKIP: 657 (1.3%)
Other: 712 (1.4%)
Majority: 8966 (18%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13866 (28.2%)
Labour: 4302 (8.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 29542 (60.2%)
UKIP: 438 (0.9%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
Other: 373 (0.8%)
Majority: 15676 (31.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20355 (36.6%)
Labour: 12811 (23%)
Liberal Democrat: 20411 (36.7%)
Referendum: 1470 (2.6%)
Other: 618 (1.1%)
Majority: 56 (0.1%)
Boundary changes: Minor. The seat gains around 600 voters in Beverley ward from Richmond Park.
Profile: Affluent residential South-West London seat, which includes the southern part of Kingston, Surbiton, New Malden, Berrylands, Chessington (along with its well known zoo and theme part), Norbiton and Tolworth. The area is deepest suburbia (stereotypically so even – the BBC sitcom the Good Life was set in Surbiton, and the Rise and Fall of Reginal Perrin in a fictionalised south London suburb that was actually Norbiton).
The seat was created in 1997 from the amalgamation of the Kingston and Surbition seats – Kingston had been represented by the former Chancellor of the Exechequer Norman Lamont, who was forced to (eventually unsuccessfully) seek election in the alternative seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. The seat was one of the most marginal in the country in 1997, but Ed Davey has subsequently built up a robust majority, defeating the right wing former Conservative MP David Shaw by a 5 figure majority in 2001 and retaining a 8,966 majority in 2005.
Current MP: Ed Davey(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Helen Whately (Conservative) educated at Micklefield School and Oxford University. Formerly worked for PWC and AOL, now an advisor to shadow culture media and sport team.
Max Freedman (Labour) Ed Davey(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Chris Walker (Green) Born 1968, Ashford Middlesex. Educated at Hampton School and Manchester University. Company Director.
Jonathan Paxton (UKIP) Monkey The Drummer (Official Monster Raving Loony) 
Anthony May (CPA) NHS manager. Contested South East region 2009 European elections.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 109677
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 17.5%
Born outside UK: 18%
White: 85.1%
Black: 1.6%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 3.7%
Christian: 65.2%
Hindu: 3.7%
Muslim: 3.4%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 7.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.4%
Owner-Occupied: 71.1%
Social Housing: 11.8% (Council: 8.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 14.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
I can’t say I’m that surprised by this result (LD 710 C 687 Lab 440). It was in 2010 close to being Labour’s weakest ward in a pretty weak borough so I don’t think my party should be disappointed. Conversely it was one of the LDs’ strongest & to have lost it would have been pretty awful for them. As it is, their control of the borough will be difficult for them to hold in 2014. Therefore, so far both main parties have held their 2 seats in by-elections since 2010.
Credible and encouraging Labour result (they almost gave it to us, which might also encourage the Tories).
Very poor Lib Dem result. Very good Conservative one.
Pitty it couldn’t have been a gain, but still.
Libs did a big gotv. Unfortunately I couldn’t be there yesterday due to worlkload. Gutting. When so nearby so close
Kingston and Surbiton
Unchanged boundaries
*LD 24,855
Con 22,697
Lab 11,018
UKIP 1,713
Grn 990
LD hold
C gain could happen though
At this admittedly early stage, I think that prediction is nearer the mark than the one you’ve made for Morley & Outwood. Balls is essentially a first-time incumbent for that seat, having represented only a minority part of it before 2010, and is likely to benefit from a national swing, some first-time incumbency & to a minor extent the greater exposure he’s had nationally since the last election. Davey is however a long-time incumbent for this entire seat who is likely to be on the end of a swing in the opposite direction and a fairly narrow LD hold is the most likely outcome I’d agree.
Only just found out yesterday that part of Berrylands is actually Alexandra ward
and has 2 Tories, 1 LD.
Elgar Avenue end
which crosses the A3 into the old Tolworth East (which used to be a Lab-Con marginal in the 80s)
We have had discussions on other seats – such as in Redbridge and Croydon
about areas which are improving, or declining
and where 1930s housing is common place.
I had a vivid example of this a few days ago.
This is a Lib Dem-Conservative battleground,
but in a different tactical situation it might be Labour competitive, and they did used to hold parts of Tolworth not so long ago.
I did some deliveries in Alexandra Ward
which is actually the south part of Berrylands, and crossing over the A3 into the north east part of Tolworth.
What was very strange is the road that was leading off the A3 and very near the traffic noise is actually pretty desirable.
Semi detached houses, well kept, often with 2 or 3 smart cars, well kept gardens.
Quite a few builders vans and homes that looked like they’d improved.
But some of the roads nearby looked as though they had deteriorated – rubbish in the gardens,
less well maintained, slightly different population.
I could see little reason for the contrast.
The housing was more dense in the latter, but you might expect areas which suffer from traffic to deteriorate more.
This ward is 2 Con and 1 LD.
(We seem to be up to date on deliveries in Twickenham and Richmond Park – but I’m checking that out).
I have often mourned the loss of pubs
and perhaps come round to Pete’s way of thinking on the smoking ban (although I’d prefer it in a smoking room – not the whole pub)
and I’d like the Government to reduce duties if they can
but
I think there are other forces at play actually.
There are several metroland pubs in this area and they look as though they are in real trouble.
Terrible one near New Malden Station for example.
I think there is a sorting out process going on aswell.
For whatever reason there are basically 2 clusters of good pubs in the Royal Borough. One is in Canbury ward, and the other is in central Surbiton. Very few other pubs in the borough have ever been much good, not in my time anyway.
At the last two general elections, this seat has been going against Ed Davey and his party. His personal vote has decreased twice, and will do so again in 2015. It is a negative personal vote if anything left over from the Richard Tracey debacle in 2001.
Not all the Lib Dems who have Tories in second place will survive in 2015. Ed Davey I think will be one of them to go.
I have to say I think this is still a difficult seat for the Tories.
There are patches of success but it’s not consistent across the whole area, and that’s been the real problem.
But this might be one of the seats where the Labour swing is all the Tories need to be let in.
That depends how high the Labour vote can go. Its natural level is probably about 23.0% here, but that’s been suppressed during the Davy years. If the Tory vote were to stay exactly the same, and if 13.9% of the Lib Dem vote were to go straight to Labour, the Tories could win by about 0.4%.
Hmm
I don’t get the impression Labour are recovering very well in the outlying parts of Chessington and Tolworth (where they should have a presence)
but may be recovering in the more urban parts of the seat.
There seem to be some contrasting demographic trends in different parts of this same seat, as is quite common in other parts of outer London.
A narrow Tory win could still be on the cards though.
The Stenchampstead area is marginal.
Tolworth Tower is a high building.
I’m with JJB here, I don’t think the Tories will win this seat easily unless the Lib Dems are so unpopular that thousands of LDs switch to Labour. If the coalition does well in the next few years and the Tories become popular again then the Tory vote should increase but I would imagine that the on such success the LD vote would also increase allowing Davey to hold on.
This is the type of seat we should be attacking however along with neighbouring Sutton/Cheam and Carshalton/Wallington further afield.
I think Tolworth did show some signs of life from Labour’s corpse in the GLA elections. Chessington however, as you correctly say Joe, is not showing that in the same way & Labour never really looked like winning either of its wards even in the party’s high-water years of the middle & late 90s. Your analysis is broadly correct. Your last comment seems to making fun of another contributor but whether it will be understood in this way by that contributor remains to be seen.
2015 Kingston & Surbiton
Leadbettter Con 20411 36.7%
Davey LD 20355 36.6%
Good Lab 12811 23.0%
Mountshaft UKIP 1470 2.6%
Other: 618 1.1%
Majority: 56 0.1%
Now that’s more what Joe usually does. Felicity Kendal & Richard Briers Labour supporters? That would be a surprise….
Surely Tom & Barbara Good would be Greens.
Wouldn’t it be funny if that really happened.
You can imagine them counting it about 8 times.
I wonder whether Penelope Keith is available to rescue the Tories here.
Maybe Daniel Finkelstein should be the candidate for the Tories here!
God no!
I used to like Daniel Finkelstein, but he has completely dissapeared up his own behind over the last few years.
If Penelope Keith was a Tory (and I hope she is) I think she’d be brilliant as a candidate here. Although, personally, I’d just put her in the Lords
Shaun Bailey (of Hammersmith fame)
Shaun
I’m surprised you didn’t know that Penelope Keith was well known to be a staunch Tory.
She is a famous resident of South West Surrey and best friends with Virginia Bottomley…..whose backside she helped to save in a very narrow result in 2001.
She would be a bad candidate in Surbiton today as the area is not as posh as it was in the 1970s. She’d be a good candidate a bit further out into Surrey, maybe Esher or Mole Valley.
There are three safe Tory seats in North East Hampshire, Croydon South and Tonbridge and Malling which have MPs retiring at the next election…..
Pete, that’s the funniest post for a while.
Made my day.
I wonder how many recounts Ed Davey would ask for if this happened?
Fantastic
Probably 7 or 8! Because 56 divided by 8 is 7, and vice versa.
Kingston Council 2014 Most Likely:
LD 23 (-4)
Con 22 (+1)
Lab 3 (+3)
LD lose to NOC
A Cairns, where are Labour’s areas of strength i.e. wards they hope to win in in Kingston?
Norbiton ward.
I only really know parts of the North of the borough though, i.e. Coombe etc.
I think that’s a very good attempt at a forecast. Labour is out working in Norbiton again & there’s good nucleus of committed activists to try & bring to fruition what many feel, that the ward can & should be regained. Any other seats would be very hard to come by in the 2014 elections though I do think that in the future other wards could come into play. It isn’t by any means impossible for the Tories to win outright, with so many split wards and so few 100% safe for the LDs, but it’s a tough ask for the Tories. A hung council would be my prediction at the moment.
“There are three safe Tory seats in North East Hampshire, Croydon South and Tonbridge and Malling which have MPs retiring at the next election”
I had’nt heard that Richard Ottaway was standing down-which if true is very welcome news.
Sir John Stanley of course probably should have stood down in 2010. If ever there was the very definition of a ‘bed blocker’…
We can also add Worcesterhire Mid now as well, of course.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if Chesham and Amersham and Meriden get added to that list in the not too distant future now their MP’s are no longer in the cabinet.
I don’t think Cheryl Gillan will stand down. He seat is safe whether boundary changes go ahead or not and she will probably be very popular as an opponent of HS2.
Caroline Spelman’s seat is changed greatly if the boundary changes go through, and that might give her some opportunity to withdraw quietly to the Lords.
But she is still quite young and was only elected in 1997 after all.
She probably has a bit of a political future left WHEN Cameron is finally ousted after leading the party to defeat at the election.
Kingston council – most likely forecast
LD 16 -11
Con 20 -1
Lab 10 +10
Stenchampstead smog campaign against ugly bay windows 2 +2
LD lose to NOC
LD/Lab coalition.
All three seats in Norbiton are almost certain to fall to Labour (and we may see the return of Steve Mama), there will be other Labour gains but its hard to predict exaclty where, but Canbury (one seat), Chessington North & Hook, Chessington South and Tolworth & Hook Rise are most likely. Perhaps the latter wards will split.
The Conservative / Lib Dem battleground is harder to predict because the post coalition by elections in Surbiton Hill, Coombe Vale and Coombe Hill paint different pictures.
The Conservatives will win Coombe Hill, Coombe Vale, Tudor, St James, Old Malden out right….and I assume that St Marks, Grove and Beverley are the most likely Lib Dem outright wins.
Canbury was a three way marginal in the late 1960′s and early 1970′s but the removal of affluent riverside roads aound Canbury Gardens and the addition of safe Labour parts of the old Park Ward (once represented by Steve Mama) transformed Canbury into a natural Labour Ward and consiquently into a Liberal/ Labour marginal that was regained by Labour in 1998. Increased gentrification made Canbury better for the Tories and Tory councillors have been elected here recently.
I am certain the Tories would keep 2 seats in Canbury due to well established councillors, but Labour gaining the third is unlikely.
“Only just found out yesterday that part of Berrylands is actually Alexandra ward”
Thats right…prior to 2002 Berrylands Ward reflected Berrylands. Since then it does not.
It was partitioned and the Northern part was combined with much of Surbiton Hill while the Southern part was combined with the former 2 member Tolworth East Ward.
Initially, the wards were to be named Berrylands North and Berrylands South.
Peter – surely the Canbury Gardens area has always been in Canbury ward? It certainly was when Labour won it in 1998 & there have been only minimal changes near Kingston hospital since with a small number of roads immediately west of the hospital brought into the ward. This didn’t help Labour but only a small part of our heavy defeat there in 2002 can be attributed to that change.
There are actually council flats by the riverside – Canbury Court looks at first sight like private flats, but in fact they are still council-owned.
Seriously,
I think the Tories have a fairly good chance of taking control of this council
but a lot of work to do,
particularly if the Tories are still struggling aswell as the Lib Dems in 2014.
Yes you do have a chance. There are very few wards with totally safe LD majorities, but the Tories are completely safe in a small number of wards and can afford to target a little more than the LDs. You can probably rule out Chessington S and Norbiton but there are hardly any other wards where a Conservative victory is completely impossible. Even Tolworth & Hook Rise could be close if the Labour vote rises sharply which it may well do.
Does the collapse of the Lib Dems now make Richmond council safe for the Conservatives?
I assume Sutton is safe for the LDs and Richmond is safe for the tories so would expect both the LDs and the tories to target this really hard.
I can’t see the Tories being in any trouble in Richmond-u-t, but I don’t think Sutton is totally safe for the LDs. I would however still expect them to hold on.
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Alexandra: 76.7% / 61.6%
Berrylands: 79.8% / 69.8%
Beverley: 73.1% / 57.5%
Chessington North & Hook: 88.7% / 77.9%
Chessington South: 89.2% / 80.5%
Grove: 77.5% / 61.8%
Norbiton: 72.1% / 55.2%
Old Malden: 76.7% / 62.0%
St James: 68.6% / 49.9%
St Mark’s: 71.3% / 64.3%
Surbiton Hill: 78.6% / 68.9%
Tolworth & Hook Rise: 78.2% / 63.7%
TOTAL: 77.6% / 64.4%
White overall, Kingston & Surbiton:
2001: 85.1%
2011: 74.9%
Asian other, Beverley:
2001: 311 / 9,488 = 3.3%
2011: 1,492 / 10,109 = 14.8%
Beverley covers a lot of New Malden where Britain’s largest South Korean community is said to reside.
I assume that most of these Koreans are Christian ( or of no religion) as the proportion of Buddhists and of other religions in these wards are n ot high at all
Yes about 75% of South Koreans today are either atheists or Christians. Traditionally they were almost all Buddhists.
IIRC buddism in korea is a minority religion at the best of times. Of those who leave korea probably even more so.