Kingston and Surbiton
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 25607 (51.1%)
Conservative: 16559 (33%)
Labour: 6593 (13.1%)
Other: 1387 (2.8%)
Majority: 9048 (18%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16431 (33%)
Labour: 6553 (13.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 25397 (51%)
UKIP: 657 (1.3%)
Other: 712 (1.4%)
Majority: 8966 (18%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13866 (28.2%)
Labour: 4302 (8.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 29542 (60.2%)
UKIP: 438 (0.9%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
Other: 373 (0.8%)
Majority: 15676 (31.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20355 (36.6%)
Labour: 12811 (23%)
Liberal Democrat: 20411 (36.7%)
Referendum: 1470 (2.6%)
Other: 618 (1.1%)
Majority: 56 (0.1%)
Boundary changes: Minor. The seat gains around 600 voters in Beverley ward from Richmond Park.
Profile: Affluent residential South-West London seat, which includes the southern part of Kingston, Surbiton, New Malden, Berrylands, Chessington (along with its well known zoo and theme part), Norbiton and Tolworth. The area is deepest suburbia (stereotypically so even – the BBC sitcom the Good Life was set in Surbiton, and the Rise and Fall of Reginal Perrin in a fictionalised south London suburb that was actually Norbiton).
The seat was created in 1997 from the amalgamation of the Kingston and Surbition seats – Kingston had been represented by the former Chancellor of the Exechequer Norman Lamont, who was forced to (eventually unsuccessfully) seek election in the alternative seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. The seat was one of the most marginal in the country in 1997, but Ed Davey has subsequently built up a robust majority, defeating the right wing former Conservative MP David Shaw by a 5 figure majority in 2001 and retaining a 8,966 majority in 2005.
Outgoing MP: Ed Davey(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Helen Whately (Conservative) educated at Micklefield School and Oxford University. Formerly worked for PWC and AOL, now an advisor to shadow culture media and sport team.
Max Freedman (Labour) Ed Davey(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Chris Walker (Green) John Perrilli (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 109677
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 17.5%
Born outside UK: 18%
White: 85.1%
Black: 1.6%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 3.7%
Christian: 65.2%
Hindu: 3.7%
Muslim: 3.4%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 7.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.4%
Owner-Occupied: 71.1%
Social Housing: 11.8% (Council: 8.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 14.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
The Conservatives could take this seat next time, with a strong campaign.
People have been voting against the Conservatives in previous elections, but in different national circumstances, this could swing back quite heavily.
Joe
The Conservatives need to concentrate on winning Sutton, Carshalton and Richmond Park primarily.
It would also be good to reduce the majority in Twickenham as much as possible in preparation for Cable standing down in 2014/5.
This seat is really the lowest priority of the five, if the Conservatives can reduce the majority to below 5000 they will have done well.
There is territory here in this seat which is quite high swing.
The results are more volatile.
That’s happened at the last three elections and in local elections too but isn’t Ed Davey well thought of and he does still have a large majority.
And as I said it has to be the lowest Conservative priority of the five.
Personal votes might have counted in former Tory seats whilst people were still rejecting them nationally. I believe a general election which has the prospect of a change of government, in a rather suburban area affected by national policy, will see personal voting diminished.
As a LibDem I have no great love for Ed Davey – and to be outclassed in your brief by a Miliband is nothing short of embarrassing. Still, comfortable Lib hold this time, with maybe a 4-5% swing to Cons.
*should have added “at most”.
It’s interesting that despite the name of this seat a lot of the town of Kingston is actually in the Richmond Park constituency, specifically the part of Kingston north of the railway which runs through the centre of the town in the Canbury ward.
yes Kingston South & Surbiton would have been a more accurate name.
Which seats have included Chessington?
“It’s interesting that despite the name of this seat a lot of the town of Kingston is actually in the Richmond Park constituency, specifically the part of Kingston north of the railway which runs through the centre of the town in the Canbury ward.”
Yes, I would have divide the old Kingston Upon Thames constituency East and West as opposed to north and South to create a real ‘Kingston & Surbiton’ and ‘Richmond, Malden & Coombe’….or ‘Kingston, Richmond & Barns’ and ‘Surbiton, Malden & Coombe’.
Richmond Park and Twickenham have confirmed they are counting on the night but Kingston & Surbiton is yet to decide.
Which seats has Chessington been in?
I am the Offical Monster loony party Candidate
[...] in Kingston and Surbiton, is a Tory target, but he’s well down their list at number 172. The borough also contains part of the Richmond Park seat, currently held by Davey’s fellow [...]