Kingston and Surbiton
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20868 (36.54%)
Labour: 5337 (9.34%)
Liberal Democrat: 28428 (49.78%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.54%)
Green: 555 (0.97%)
Monster Raving Loony: 247 (0.43%)
Others: 226 (0.4%)
Majority: 7560 (13.24%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 25607 (51.1%)
Conservative: 16559 (33%)
Labour: 6593 (13.1%)
Other: 1387 (2.8%)
Majority: 9048 (18%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16431 (33%)
Labour: 6553 (13.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 25397 (51%)
UKIP: 657 (1.3%)
Other: 712 (1.4%)
Majority: 8966 (18%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13866 (28.2%)
Labour: 4302 (8.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 29542 (60.2%)
UKIP: 438 (0.9%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
Other: 373 (0.8%)
Majority: 15676 (31.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20355 (36.6%)
Labour: 12811 (23%)
Liberal Democrat: 20411 (36.7%)
Referendum: 1470 (2.6%)
Other: 618 (1.1%)
Majority: 56 (0.1%)
Boundary changes: Minor. The seat gains around 600 voters in Beverley ward from Richmond Park.
Profile: Affluent residential South-West London seat, which includes the southern part of Kingston, Surbiton, New Malden, Berrylands, Chessington (along with its well known zoo and theme part), Norbiton and Tolworth. The area is deepest suburbia (stereotypically so even – the BBC sitcom the Good Life was set in Surbiton, and the Rise and Fall of Reginal Perrin in a fictionalised south London suburb that was actually Norbiton).
The seat was created in 1997 from the amalgamation of the Kingston and Surbition seats – Kingston had been represented by the former Chancellor of the Exechequer Norman Lamont, who was forced to (eventually unsuccessfully) seek election in the alternative seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. The seat was one of the most marginal in the country in 1997, but Ed Davey has subsequently built up a robust majority, defeating the right wing former Conservative MP David Shaw by a 5 figure majority in 2001 and retaining a 8,966 majority in 2005.
Current MP: Ed Davey(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Helen Whately (Conservative) educated at Micklefield School and Oxford University. Formerly worked for PWC and AOL, now an advisor to shadow culture media and sport team.
Max Freedman (Labour) Ed Davey(Liberal Democrat) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Chris Walker (Green) Born 1968, Ashford Middlesex. Educated at Hampton School and Manchester University. Company Director.
Jonathan Paxton (UKIP) Monkey The Drummer (Official Monster Raving Loony) 
Anthony May (CPA) NHS manager. Contested South East region 2009 European elections.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 109677
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 17.5%
Born outside UK: 18%
White: 85.1%
Black: 1.6%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 3.7%
Christian: 65.2%
Hindu: 3.7%
Muslim: 3.4%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 7.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.4%
Owner-Occupied: 71.1%
Social Housing: 11.8% (Council: 8.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 14.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
[...] Brentford and Isleworth and Poplar and Limehouse, Bethnal Green and Bow, Dagenham and Rainham, Kingston and Surbiton, Islington South and Finsbury and Barking, where the enchanting BNP leader Nick Griffin will hope [...]
Majority of 7,560 to Ed Davey which is about as convincing as possible. Given the LDs did much worse than expected nationally, with some high profile losses (Julia Goldsworthy, Evan Harris and, of course, Susan Kramer) anything better than halving of his majority was a solid victory. He has done much better so congratulations.
This should especially be seen compared to the spectacular victory of Zac Goldsmith just north in Richmond. People can ramble on about Zak’s wealth and high profile, but the Non-Dom issue should have cancelled this out. It is probably much fairer to say that Zak ran an active campaign to get recognised as serious for at least two years.
There is a lot to be done by Kingston Tories. They were unlikely to win in one jump (though that would have been on the cards from national polls as little as a year ago ). But they should have cut this majority far more this time. To under 2,000 could have been achieved. This is especially true given how well the Tories did heading into London from the southwest and the complete coverage the Tories have in Surrey Kingston is both politically and culturally both Surrey and London, as is Richmond. In some ways this could be seen as one of the seats which stopped a Tory majority.
As it stands this is very unlikely to go Tory even if an election is held within the next 18 months, as seems likely. It will be interesting to see how Kingston Council goes. With the huge Council Tax out here under the LDs the Tories should take control. If they don’t a major constituency rethink is needed. The Tory’s “Open Selection” brought in a much needed fresh outsider as Westminster candidate. But that is clearly far from enough.
Interesting comparision with the Kingston&Surbiton/Richmond Park result today – Lib Dems losing control of Richmond Council but increasing their majority to hold on to Kingston Council (Labour now has no seats on either council).
Did Richmond Tories ride on Zak’s coat tails or do Kingston’s local Lib Dems have Mr Davey’s GOTV to thank?
DB
What do you mean by GOTV ?
So Westminster and Council lost here by Tories while Richmond conclusively won. True Richmond is richer, but not that much richer and the Richmond seat includes a fair part of Kingston borough.
Some self-criticism required here by Kingston Tories, maybe with some help from CCO. But they better get a move on with a fair chance of an election in October – maybe as little as 4 months before it is called and most of that the summer period when it is impossible to organise most things.
Simply that the higher turnout from the general election on the same day, coupled with a high profile local MP in Davey seems to have helped the lib dems in Kingston.
The share of the vote was LD 43 – Con 40 this time compared to Con 45 – LD 41 at the locals in 2006 (and that includes some of Richmond Park as well). Turnout looks like being up by half on the numbers from 2006 and a large proportion of the extra vote (certainly in key areas like Norbiton and Surbiton Hill) went to the lib dems.
Putting politics aside, Davey is a model of how to turn a ‘change election’ shock result into a safe seat and my first impression of the local result is that the libs rode his coattails into the townhall.The ‘highest council tax in London’ narrative for the past few years certainly wouldn’t have been thought to have helped drive those numbers to the polls for them(!).
DB
What you say is interesting. But I have another suggestion. Some of the Tory councillors are just rather poor. I’ll give you a direct example.
I wanted to raise a serious matter relating to policing with the council as a whole. Rather than leave it to chance I dropped my letter to both the LDs and the Tories (3 copies to each including the leader) in person. I actually dropped them through their personal letterboxes in Guildhall.
The response ? The LDs contacted me immediately, said they would raise it in the council, invited me to a public meeting where I spoke and the council agreed to follow up on it – resulting in an article in the Surrey Comet.
The Tories didn’t even reply, even though it was on matters they claim to care about – crime and the squandering of public resources. All six councillors knew I had contacted the other five from the address list. A small example, but a very telling one.
Sometimes results are based on the personal experience of voters of the individuals involved. All politics is supposed to be local. Local Government certainly is.
It’s an interesting point about all politics being local. I’ve always doubted that in the UK as I’d guess that the number of people who have direct contact with their representatives or know what’s going on (at any level) in their local government is very, very low. Add to this the lack of any real local media and the slow death of the local newspaper and I wonder how much local events really determine local votes.
However, the local lib dem machine is certainly impressive (that’s 2 elections in a row they’ve been expected to lose and the second time they’ve picked off ’safe’ conservative areas) and looking at the way Richmond continues to yo-yo irrespective of national trend, I may just have to re-think my view on this!
I’ve always been more ‘turned on by’ national politiics thant local.. that’s just me personally.. But the MP I delivered for focused his campaign on his own ‘local champion’ status, and was rewarded with a massively increased majority in Leeds NW – a result that was repeated in Westmoreland and Cheltenham
So its clearly a tactic that works for Lib Dems