Kingston and Surbiton
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 25607 (51.1%)
Conservative: 16559 (33%)
Labour: 6593 (13.1%)
Other: 1387 (2.8%)
Majority: 9048 (18%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16431 (33%)
Labour: 6553 (13.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 25397 (51%)
UKIP: 657 (1.3%)
Other: 712 (1.4%)
Majority: 8966 (18%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13866 (28.2%)
Labour: 4302 (8.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 29542 (60.2%)
UKIP: 438 (0.9%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
Other: 373 (0.8%)
Majority: 15676 (31.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20355 (36.6%)
Labour: 12811 (23%)
Liberal Democrat: 20411 (36.7%)
Referendum: 1470 (2.6%)
Other: 618 (1.1%)
Majority: 56 (0.1%)
Boundary changes: Minor. The seat gains around 600 voters in Beverley ward from Richmond Park.
Profile: Affluent residential South-West London seat, which includes the southern part of Kingston, Surbiton, New Malden, Berrylands, Chessington (along with its well known zoo and theme part), Norbiton and Tolworth. The area is deepest suburbia (stereotypically so even - the BBC sitcom the Good Life was set in Surbiton, and the Rise and Fall of Reginal Perrin in a fictionalised south London suburb that was actually Norbiton).
The seat was created in 1997 from the amalgamation of the Kingston and Surbition seats - Kingston had been represented by the former Chancellor of the Exechequer Norman Lamont, who was forced to (eventually unsuccessfully) seek election in the alternative seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. The seat was one of the most marginal in the country in 1997, but Ed Davey has subsequently built up a robust majority, defeating the right wing former Conservative MP David Shaw by a 5 figure majority in 2001 and retaining a 8,966 majority in 2005.
Current MP: Ed Davey (Lib Dem) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Chris Walker (Green)
Helen Whately (Conservative) educated at Micklefield School and Oxford University. Formerly worked for PWC and AOL, now an advisor to shadow culture media and sport team.
Max Freedman (Labour)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 109677
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 17.5%
Born outside UK: 18%
White: 85.1%
Black: 1.6%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 3.7%
Christian: 65.2%
Hindu: 3.7%
Muslim: 3.4%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 7.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.4%
Owner-Occupied: 71.1%
Social Housing: 11.8% (Council: 8.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 14.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
Labour: 18988
*Liberal Democrat: 18411
Conservative: 16354
UKIP: 1766
Other: 987
Lab Majority: 577
Lab Gain from Lib Dem
Interestingly enough, would this have been slightly credible in a 1997 situation, had voters been aware of Labour’s strength generally at that time? Pete and I have just been discussing seats in Wales where the Tories increased their vote from nowhere in 1979.
But I don’t think the above result is going to happen in 2009/10, although I’d prefer to see a Labour seat here rather than a Lib Dem one.
I think the Tories could win here, despite the 9,000 majority for Ed Davey.
Yes, Labour came within 13.7% of the Ed Davey in 1997.
Had many ‘potential Labour voters’ that Labour were also challenging here then this seat could have fallen to Labour (as per Bristol West or Hastings & Rye).
Yes, that’s basically my point.
It was probably seen as sort of half a Lib Dem target so the position got a bit caught up in two things in 1997.
Demographically, it could have followed seats in outer London,
Obviously once the LDs won the seat, and the Tories had even worse
problems in 2001, they locked in the Labour vote,
but if things had worked out differently in 1997 we could be looking
at a seat the Tories would narrowly have taken off Labour in 2005.
But this is very what if - a result is a result.
I am a Lib Dem member, though I only became one as Ed Davey impressed me as the MP for the area and I became very interested in the Lib Dems.
I think a lot of people are missing basic facts. Apart from the odd area like Coombe Hill and Berrylands, K+S isn’t that affluent an area. Surbiton is very run of the mill whilst a lot of Kingston near the centre if full of social housing. It is prime Lib Dem territory bar the odd affluent area.
Ed Davey is a hard working, honest MP. He has saved Tolworth from destruction in blocking the Tesco proposal with the council. I am proud to call Mr Davey my MP. The local Lib Dem teams are efficient and the local party is definetly the biggest local party.
Helen Whately. She has sent one piece of literature since her selection as candidate and attacked Labour throughout. She challenged Ed to publish his expenses-despite the fact he does so on his website, claims for no ACA and has been called a ’saint’ by the Daily Telegraph. She is out of touch with the real Kingston in my opinion.
The local Lib Dem councils have come in for some slack lately but the recycling issue is a non starter for the Tories as when it comes to it, it is straightforward. The people who moan clearly don’t see how simple it is to seperate the rubbish. However, the biggest two errors come from Tory councillors:
1) B+Q. The Tories pushed for this and it has made traffic an absolute nightmare in surrounding areas.
2) Pushing for the New Malden police station to become a Wetherspoon’s pub.
I think Ed Davey will keep the seat and the way I see it, it should be comfortable but seeing as the Tory vote nationally is swelling, I think it’ll go:
Lib Dem 24300
Conservative 19600
Labour 4000
Other 2100
Majority 4700
I think that Lib Dem Alex is missing the point with his assessment of K&S as not a generally affluent area.
I agree that there are a lot of poorer areas within K&S, but the fact remains that most of it is affluent by most people’s standards. The roads around Maple Road in Surbiton may look run of the mill but a lot of those flats cost £350k and a lot of the victorian terraced houses cost £500k.
Younger people will often buy a smaller property in this type of area rather than a larger house further out (e.g. Walton or Woking) as it reduces their commute and keeps them closer to amenities. In terms of average income, a lot of parts of K&S would be quite close to the top of the pile, it is just that housing costs more than in the commuter belt, so the appearance of wealth is much less.
It is this type of person that the Lib Dems have to stop converting back to Tory if they are to retain this seat.
“Lib Dem 24300
Conservative 19600
Labour 4000
Other 2100
Majority 4700″
If the Lib Dems hold on here is will by a lot less than 4700.
I also think that the comparison with Romford is an interesting one.
Kingston and Surbiton themselves are probably as polar an opposite to Romford as a suburban London seat can get - many more graduates and a much higher proportion working in white collar professional roles. As I mentioned in a previous comment, this is not an area of particulalry large houses, but fairly standard suburban houses can cost £600K+ in this area and there are lot of people with incomes to match, even though the outwards signs of wealth are less than areas further out into Surrey.
However, the southern parts of this constituency (Chessington & Tolworth), and the area between Kingston and New Malden are very much like Romford - lots of self employed tradesmen and employed manual workers.
Anecdotally, it appears to be the younger affluent people in Kingston and Surbiton themselves who have converted from Tory to Lib Dem and propelled Ed Davey to power in this seat. There appears to be very few of these voters in Romford, as I would guess disillusioned Tory voters there would be more likely to convert to UKIP or the BNP than the Lib Dems.
Euro election results for Kingston-upon-Thames:
C - 11,850 (28.5%, -0.6%)
LD - 11,658 (28.0%, +1.5%)
UKIP - 4,795 (11.5%, -1.8%)
Green - 3,824 (9.2%, +1.5%)
Lab - 3,079 (7.4%, -7.8%)
Jan Jananayagam - 2,150 (5.2%)
BNP - 1,450 (3.5%, +0.7%)
Well, I think that the comparison of Kingston/Surbiton with Romford is an hilarious one.
Granted, this constituency does not include the nice part of north Kingston and does include the more working class areas of Chessington, Hook and Tolworth, but the fact is that the majority of the borough is as different from somewhere like Romford as I can imagine.
Most middle income professionals (£50-£100k earners) would have the choice of buying a 4 bedroomed detached ‘executive home’ on an estate outside somewhere like Guildford or Tunbridge Wells or buying a less glamorous 2/3 bed semi in somewhere like Surbiton or Twickenham. They sacrifice the house size for a shorter commute and more facilities on their doorstep.
Clearly, a £500k 3 bed semi in Surbiton is a very similar house to a £250k 3 bed semi in Romford, but I would be prepared to bet they there are often very different people living in them!