Kingston and Surbiton
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 25607 (51.1%)
Conservative: 16559 (33%)
Labour: 6593 (13.1%)
Other: 1387 (2.8%)
Majority: 9048 (18%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16431 (33%)
Labour: 6553 (13.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 25397 (51%)
UKIP: 657 (1.3%)
Other: 712 (1.4%)
Majority: 8966 (18%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13866 (28.2%)
Labour: 4302 (8.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 29542 (60.2%)
UKIP: 438 (0.9%)
Green: 572 (1.2%)
Other: 373 (0.8%)
Majority: 15676 (31.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 20355 (36.6%)
Labour: 12811 (23%)
Liberal Democrat: 20411 (36.7%)
Referendum: 1470 (2.6%)
Other: 618 (1.1%)
Majority: 56 (0.1%)
Boundary changes: Minor. The seat gains around 600 voters in Beverley ward from Richmond Park.
Profile: Affluent residential South-West London seat, which includes the southern part of Kingston, Surbiton, New Malden, Berrylands, Chessington (along with its well known zoo and theme part), Norbiton and Tolworth. The area is deepest suburbia (stereotypically so even - the BBC sitcom the Good Life was set in Surbiton, and the Rise and Fall of Reginal Perrin in a fictionalised south London suburb that was actually Norbiton).
The seat was created in 1997 from the amalgamation of the Kingston and Surbition seats - Kingston had been represented by the former Chancellor of the Exechequer Norman Lamont, who was forced to (eventually unsuccessfully) seek election in the alternative seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. The seat was one of the most marginal in the country in 1997, but Ed Davey has subsequently built up a robust majority, defeating the right wing former Conservative MP David Shaw by a 5 figure majority in 2001 and retaining a 8,966 majority in 2005.
Current MP: Ed Davey (Lib Dem) born 1965, Mansfield. Educated at Nottingham High School and Oxford University. Former economics researcher for the Liberal Democrats and management consultant. First elected as MP for Kingston and Surbiton in 1997. Liberal Democrat shadow chief seccretary from 2001-2002, shadowed the Deputy Prime Minister`s office from 2002-5, Lib Dem Education spokesman from 2005-6, briefly Lib Dem DTI spokesman 2006, Chief of Staff to Sir Menzies Campbell 2006-2007, Lib Dem shadow foreign secretary since 2007. Married to Emily Gasson, the Liberal Democrat candidate in Dorset North (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Chris Walker (Green)
Helen Whately (Conservative) educated at Micklefield School and Oxford University. Formerly worked for PWC and AOL, now an advisor to shadow culture media and sport team.
Max Freedman (Labour)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 109677
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 20.5%
Over 60: 17.5%
Born outside UK: 18%
White: 85.1%
Black: 1.6%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 2.1%
Other: 3.7%
Christian: 65.2%
Hindu: 3.7%
Muslim: 3.4%
Sikh: 0.6%
Full time students: 7.8%
Graduates 16-74: 31.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 18.4%
Owner-Occupied: 71.1%
Social Housing: 11.8% (Council: 8.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.1%)
Privately Rented: 14.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.6%
I think Dan knows I do not predict Tory gains in almost every seat and actually is worried where I do predict them that it may prove to be right.
So lets put that gently to rest.
Don’t get me wrong, I very clearly understand that for the Conservatives to take this seat back is a very, very big task and requires the following set of circumstances, the Tories riding high in the polls 46+, labour to be no higher than the mid 20’s and the lib dems down to around around 16%, at least in the london area if not across britain as a whole. That would put this seat in recount territory an a possible upset, a sort of Solihull in reverse.
‘The Tories did tremendously well in slashing the majority in 2005′
You really think so?
On the back of their horrendous result in 2001, increasing their vote by a mere 2,565 votes in 2005 is relatively small beer
Despite the demographic changes in this seat in the last 20 years, which you would expect to work against the Tories, this still ought to be a Conservative seat and whatever Ed Davey may now say, I would have thought that not even he would have thought he would have won here in 1997
The fact that he now enjoys a majority of 9048 tells its own story…
‘The Tories did tremendously well in slashing the majority in 2005? ‘You really think so?’
More to this than meets the eye. At the last GE there was still tory infighting, little organisation and no money. Thr result was fairly respectable considering everything that was and wasn’t going on.
I think the Tories did do well to slash the majority and it tells me we must not be complacent here and waste our resources on nearby seats we are not going to win.
I am sure Ed did not expect to win when he did but the overwhelming votes in favour since must be an endorsement of Lib Dem policies.
‘I am sure Ed did not expect to win when he did but the overwhelming votes in favour since must be an endorsement of Lib Dem policies.’
I’d say it’s more of an endorsement of him as an MP - as opposed to his party’s policies
Since Richard Tracey the Conservatives haven’t done themselves any favours in the candudates they’ve selected, and the Lib Dems certainly can’t afford to be complacent but as Paz says, it’s an extraordinary big ask for the Tories to retake this seat at the next election, and unlike in neighbouring seats (save Twickennham) the smart money has to be on Mr Davey
Agree with Tim totally – not much to do with policies. Davey doesn’t do as much these days and is living off his reputation. But he is still thought of as a good MP and will be favourite going into the election, but it’s no sure thing this time. Also agree that Richmond is a done deal for Zac, unless he does something really stupid.
My prediction for this seat;
Lib Dem 24000
Cons 21000
Labour 5000
Others 2000
I hope you all don’t find this TOO irrelevant, but in 97GE I canvassed for the LibDems, and went to the Election Night party in Richmond. Jenny Tonge thought she would run the Tories close, but what still shocked to have won. What was more astonishing, was that Ed Davey walked in later, in the early hours, as he hadn’t expected to win, and had no ‘celebration/thank you’ to go to! My point here is that K & S voters can be quite unpredictable, he really didn’t think he stood much chance of winning at all! I predict a LibDem victory with a reduced majority.
I also expect a Lib Dem majority here next time at least. Although it will be with a greatly reduced majority. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything for Ed Davey personally but with the unwinding of the 2001 result, a heavily reduced majority is inevitable. On the exact details, I think I would tend to agree with Matts prediction.