Kensington
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 13958 (44.9%)
Labour: 8857 (28.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 6161 (19.8%)
Other: 2108 (6.8%)
Majority: 5102 (16.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 18144 (57.9%)
Labour: 5521 (17.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5726 (18.3%)
Green: 1342 (4.3%)
UKIP: 395 (1.3%)
Other: 208 (0.7%)
Majority: 12418 (39.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15270 (54.5%)
Labour: 6499 (23.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4416 (15.8%)
UKIP: 416 (1.5%)
Green: 1158 (4.1%)
Other: 279 (1%)
Majority: 8771 (31.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 19887 (53.6%)
Labour: 10368 (28%)
Liberal Democrat: 5668 (15.3%)
Other: 1165 (3.1%)
Majority: 9519 (25.7%)
Boundary changes: Major. The borough of Kensington and Chelsea will no longer be twinned with Westminster when deciding boundaries, so the North Kensington part of the old Regent’s Park and North Kensington seat, including Notting Hill, joins this seat, while Chelsea is hived off to form the new Chelsea and Fulham constituency.
Profile: a residential seat west of central London, recently brought into the congestion charge zone. Kensington is one of the most solidly Conservative parts of the country, the housing is largely expensive gardens squares and Georgian terraces. Kensington High street is an upmarket shopping hub, Kensington Palace is the residence of several members of the Royal Family and Kensington Palace Gardens the site of many embassies and a few private residences for the super-rich. South Kensington is the museum district, home to the Natural History Museum, the Science Museum and the Victoria and Albert and is somewhat more cosmopolitan, housing the halls of residence for Imperial College.
As well as Kensington itself the seat covers Earl’s Court, Brompton, Holland Park and Notting Hill. Earls Court is far more run down and cheaper than it’s richer neighbour and while it it undergoing rapid gentrification and contains its own areas of the super-rich such as the Boltons, there are still cheap areas of run down hotels and bedsits around Earls Court Exhibition Centre, which straddles the boundary between this and Hammersmith.
Notting Hill today is an affluent and trendy area associated politically with David Cameron and the younger Conservative set surrounding him, and more widely with the Notting Hill carnival, led by the area’s vibrant Afro-Carribean community. It is a highly cosmopolitan area, having fallen on hard times in the twentieth century and become associated with dingy flats and houses of multiple occupancy it has undergone rapid gentrification. These days while the old Victorian private houses are sought after and extortionately expensive, there is much social housing and tower blocks and there remains a large ethnic population and areas of social deprivation in North Kensington and Ladbroke Grove. Whereas the Kensington wards are safely Conservative, northern wards like Notting Barns, which includes the tower blocks of Lancaster West Estate, and Colville reliabley return Labour councillors.
Kensington and Chelsea has had a high turnover of high profile MPs. When originally created in 1997 it selected the Chelsea MP Sir Nicholas Scott, who was forced to stand down prior to the election over accusations of alcoholism after being found in a gutter in Bournemouth. The seat was instead fought and won by the former MP and famed diarist Alan Clark, making a return to Parliament having grown bored of retirement. He died two years later and the subsequent by-election returned Michael Portillo, the former Defence Secretary. Portillo spent a year as Shadow Chancellor before unsuccessfully contesting the Conservative leadership and then stepping down from politics. In 2005 the seat was won by another former minister, defeated in 1997, this time the former Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind. Like Michael Portillo he briefly served in the shadow cabinet, stood for the leadership of the party, lost, and returned to the backbenches, though unlike Portillo he shows no signs of retiring from politics.
Current MP: Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Con) born 1946, Edinburgh. Educated at George Watson’s College and Edinburgh University. Advocate and QC. Contested Edinburgh Central 1970. Elected as MP for Edinburgh Pentlands in February 1974 where he served until his defeat in 1997, during that time serving as a junior minister in the Scottish office 1979-1983, minister of state in the foreign officer 1983-1986, secretary of state for Scotland 1986-1990, secretary of state for transport 1990-1992, secretary of state for defence 1992-1995 and foriegn secretary 1995-1997. After his 1997 defeat he was given a knighthood in John Major’s resignation honours and served as President of the Scottish Conservative party. He stood again in Edinburgh Pentlands in 2001, but in 2005 moved to the safe Conservative seat of Kensington and Chelsea. Following the 2005 he joined the shadow cabinet as shadow work and pensions secretary, intending to contest the party leadership following Michael Howard’s resignation. In the event he recieved little support and dropped out of the race prior to the first round of voting. He stepped down from the shadow cabinet following the leadership election having failed to be appointed shadow foriegn secretary, the only role which he wished to be considered for. Rifkind has indicated he will contest the Kensington seat at the next election, rather than seek nomination for the new Fulham & Chelsea constituency (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Sam Gurney (Labour) TUC policy officer.
Iarla Kilbane-Dawe (Liberal Democrat) born 1968, County Mayo, Eire. Educated at St Ignatius College, Trinity College Sublin and Cambridge University. Atmospheric scientist. Contested Edmonton 2005.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 116478
Male: 48%
Female: 52%
Under 18: 17.8%
Over 60: 15.4%
Born outside UK: 45.5%
White: 76.2%
Black: 8.2%
Asian: 5.2%
Mixed: 4.4%
Other: 5.9%
Christian: 60.4%
Hindu: 1%
Jewish: 2.2%
Muslim: 9.3%
Full time students: 8.6%
Graduates 16-74: 51.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 13.5%
Owner-Occupied: 42.1%
Social Housing: 27.8% (Council: 8.5%, Housing Ass.: 19.3%)
Privately Rented: 24.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 13.6%
Sorry, I meant to say most London seats swung to Labour in 2001, so I’d be surprised to see the Tories win this seat from Labour in that year (notionally speaking).
Kensington & Chelsea (which comprises over half of the new Kensington seat) swung to the Conservatives in 2001, mainly due to the Labour vote dropping away - although Regents Park and N Kensington saw a drop in the Conservative vote, the Labour vote fell further (to the Lib Dems).
London produced a tiny net swing of 0.7% to the Tories in 2001 but it’s hardly worth quibbling over as the share of the vote fell 0.7%, and swing was to Labour in many seats, particularly the marginals.
Labour’s vote went up in nearly every London seat that was gettting the Millbank treatment in 2001.
“I’ve tried to work out how new seats would have voted in 1997 and 2001, and think Labour would have won Kensington in 1997 by around 3000, but lost in 2001 by around 1000″
Ive done the same and have a Labour majority of about 2000 here in 1997 and of about 150 in 2001 (in other words too close to call). The reality is as suggested by Sammy Morse that in the event Labour had a sitting MP in this seat the resources directed at it in 2001 would have been sufficeint probably to keep it in the Labour column (as opposed to the lack of resources which were actually directed towards the large part of this seat which resided at the time in Kensington & Chelsea)
“Labour’s vote went up in nearly every London seat that was gettting the Millbank treatment in 2001. ”
That could well be right - do you think Labour didn’t bother too much in some seats that had big majorities even though they were only gained in 1997 - like Brentford and Isleworth where they lost 9,000 votes as turnout slumped?
On the other hand, they made progress in many others, or kept the absolute fall (turnout) within a containable range.
Labour’s election strategy in 2001 was almost perfect. They lost thousands of votes in seats they either held with big majorities or didn’t hold, but either held steady or increased their vote in their most marginal seats. They came close to increasing their majority in 1997, reducing the Tory majority in seats like Boston&Skegness, Beverley&Holderness, Gosport, etc.
I meant to say they came close to increasing their overall majority in 2001 compared to 1997.
I have always wondered whether the cluster of Labour councillors elected in parts of North Kensington and Notting Hill live in this area, or do some live in more affluent parts of the borough such as Chelsea?
“Labour’s election strategy in 2001 was almost perfect.”
In terms of winning that specific election, yes. But in the longer term the consequences of Labour’s 2001 strategy will prove to be ruinous for the party. Their strategy in that election made it abundantly clear to Labour’s white working class voters that they and their concerns were no longer a priority, and they have responded every year since then by abstaining and voting for other parties in bigger and bigger numbers.
Now that the middle class swing voters are moving back to the Tories Labour desperately need their core voters back and Labour’s defeat in 2010 will be far worse as a result of their disillusionment.
I think the inverse of 2001 was the 1987 result where Labour piled up stacks of votes in their own areas - quite often more than in 1979 despite a much worse postion overall.
But, actually, the 1987 election was important in demonstrating that they weren’t going to go away, and would eventually be the nucleus for a change of government.
They do need to motivate their core voters to turn out.
H.Hemelig makes a very good argument about how Labour has lost support from it’s former core voters. This is a fatal error for any party, as swing voters are by definition fickle and will swing away when the going gets tough but if you cant keep your core supporters on board you dont have a future as a party. I hope other parties take note.
Pete,
It sounds to me like your giving a warning to DC from a UKIP perspective. I think the Tories are a broad church and have two distinct groups of ‘core’ supporters (the right and centre-right), and both groups need to be nurtured by the party.
The Tories have suffered when either ‘core group’ feel neglected.
Marianne Alapini has resigned as a councillor here due to stress. She had been in the running for Erith & Thamesmead.