Keighley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 20003 (41.94%)
Labour: 17063 (35.78%)
Liberal Democrat: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.11%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.08%)
Others: 135 (0.28%)
Majority: 2940 (6.16%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20720 (44.7%)
Conservative: 15868 (34.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5484 (11.8%)
Other: 4240 (9.2%)
Majority: 4852 (10.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15868 (34.3%)
Labour: 20720 (44.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5484 (11.8%)
BNP: 4240 (9.2%)
Majority: 4852 (10.5%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 16883 (39%)
Labour: 20888 (48.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4722 (10.9%)
UKIP: 840 (1.9%)
Majority: 4005 (9.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18907 (36.7%)
Labour: 26039 (50.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5064 (9.8%)
Referendum: 1470 (2.9%)
Majority: 7132 (13.9%)
No boundary changes:
Profile: To the North the seat extends over part of Rombald`s Moor (including the iconic Ilkley Moor) to the towns of Addingham and Ilkley in Wharfedale. Ilkley is a prosperous Victoria Spa town that remains a popular tourist destination. To the south the seat follows the preserved heritage steam railway through villages like Haworth, again a popular tourist destination thanks to its association with the Bronte sisters.
While the north and south of the seat are Conservative, Keighley itself is a former textile town and provides most of Labour`s support in the seat. The town contains somewhat troubled estates like Braithwaite and has in the past been a prime target for the BNP. Keighley`s population is around 15% muslim. West Keighley was briefly the BNP`s safest council seat after they won in 2004 and the seat was contested by the BNP leader Nick Griffin in 2005 after a furore over alleged grooming of young white girls in Keighley by Asian men. The mother of the girl at the centre of the allegations later stood for the Labour party in West Keighley, defeating the BNP, who no longer have any councillors in Keighley.
Current MP: Kris Hopkins (Conservative) College Lecturer. Leader of Bradford Council. Contested Halifax in 2005, Leeds West in 2001.
Kris Hopkins (Conservative) College Lecturer. Leader of Bradford Council. Contested Halifax in 2005, Leeds West in 2001.
Jane Thomas (Labour) Director of Network North. Former University lecturer.
Nader Fekri (Liberal Democrat) History lecturer. Calderdale councillor. Contested Keighley 2005, Yorkshire and Humberside 2009 European election.
Paul Latham (UKIP)Andrew Brons (BNP) Steven Smith (National Front)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 90174
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 24%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 7.3%
White: 89.3%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 9.4%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 68.8%
Muslim: 8.4%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 19.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.8%
Owner-Occupied: 77.6%
Social Housing: 11% (Council: 8.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.2%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 19.9%
It would be a huge upset if Labour won Worth Valley as although they carried the seat in 1994-1996, this was largely due to the appeal of Tony Blair’s New Labour project.
What a pitty somebody doesn’t do an partisan index of our local council wards like they have in the US.
Perhaps people on this site should get together and create one!
Could you explain what is meant by a ‘partisan index’ ?
He means an index showing by how many percentage points a ward leans to Con or Lab in a situation where both main parties are on an equal national vote share, like the PVI index in the US.
It is much harder, if not impossible, here because of the complication of not being a 2 party system.
I think it would be impossible for that reason
Or at the very least highly misleading and complicated, especially in 3 or 4 way marginals and areas where the opposition is evenly divided but strong in aggregate.
Conservatives held Worth Valley
Con 1020
Lab 697
Green 235
Lib Dem 180
Yes that’s a disappointing result for Labour, actually showing if I’m not mistaken no real swing since the general election.
If we compare the by-election result with the 2008 result, it is worse for the Tories as they lost 12% of the vote. However, Kris Hopkins did have a substantial personal vote in a year which the Tories polled well across the district.
Barnaby, I believe there was actually a very fractional swing to the Tories (~1%) cf May 2010
This highlights the difference between “good vacancies”- e.g.to become an MP, death of a councillor and “bad vacancies”e.g. disqualification, not- turning up, scandal. In my experience, the electorate do appear to be more sympathetic to the incumbent’s party in the former situations. What are the observations of other election watchers?
Paul you are correct.
Local election totals for Keighley
Con = 46.92%
Lab = 38.20%
LD = 9.11%
Green = 4.60%
UKIP = 1.17%
Seat Changes = Lab gain Keighley Central from Con
Interesting results in Keighley in that the seat swung from Labour to Conservative compared to the 2010 local elections, on account that the Tories took more of the falling LD vote than Labour did. It was usually the other way round.
2011 with change on 2010
Con 46.9% (+4.7%)
Lab 38.2% (+3.5%)
LD 9.1% (-9.0%)
Oth 5.8% (-0.8%)
The results were certainly encouraging for the Conservatives in Keighley. However turnout plays a large part here as the constituency is polarised between the safeish Conservative areas of Craven, Ilkley and Worth Valley, whilst Labour are safe in Keighley itself (Central, East and West wards). That said, the Conservatives do seem to edge it based on the figures David gave and as long as the Conservatives can mount a GOTV in Keighley itself whilst relying on its ‘natural’ vote in their safe areas then they could well hang on here next time.
Boundary changes could bring in one of two safe Conservative areas namely Bingley or Bingley Rural (both currently in Shipley constituency), thus increasing the Conservative majority albeit notionally.
The initial boundary changes from this seat removes Worth Valley whilst gaining both Wharfedale and Bingley. This should make this seat much safer for Kris Hopkins here.
Yes, the boundary changes would give Kris Hopkins a majority of 7557. Consequently, Keighley would become less of a bellwether seat than it has been.
Former MP Ann Cryer is to stand as a candidate in Ilkley at the next local election. If she was serious about standing, then I would have thought she would stand in Keighley West which is a much more realistic prospect.
Presumably she lives in Ilkley (which is a very nice place to spend a summer’s afternoon).
It does sort of remind me of the speculation that Tony Benn was going to stand in Kensington.
Seems she doesn’t really want to be elected then I’d have thought. Maybe Labour just need someone to stand there?
Most likely she’s just doing the local party a favour.
Aggregate votes for Keighley were
Lab 10780 42.9%
C 9425 37.5%
LD 1845 7.3%
Ind 1836 7.3%
Green 910 3.6%
UKIP 354 1.4%
The Independent was elected in Craven ward (normally a Tory ward), which probably helped Labour top the poll across the constituency.
Ann Cryer won 1683 votes to the Conservative councillor Anne Hawkesworth’s 2436 in Ilkley.
I maintain that it is incorrect to analyse the votes cast in the May District Council elections by grouping together the six wards in the Keighley & Ilkley constituency. Why? Because not all parties contested each ward, that’s why.
It is only valid to analyse the results ward by ward.
For example Swanarcadian mentions Ann Cryer with 1683 voted who polled second in the Ilkley ward vs Anne Hawkesworth who won for the Conservatives with 2436 votes. UKIP were in fact third in this ward ahead of both the Lib Dems and the Green party.
The real battleground in the Bradford MDC election however, was not in Keighley at all, but in several wards within Bradford itself, where supporters of George Galloway trounced the local Labour candidates to win 5 seats.
I have family living in this seat, specifically Ilkley, and the town does indeed strike one as being the genteel spa town that is so often talked about- In actual fact the whole spa industry has probably gone now and so Ilkley probably exists nowadays as a commuter town for people working in Leeds and Bradford most likely. But the picturesque nature of Ilkley thanks to the Moors as well as its proud history makes this one of the more affluent towns in West Yorkshire and so remains rock-solid Conservative.
Keighley 2015 Most likely
Con 42
Lab 41
LD 9
Others 8
Con hold Swing = 2.6% Con to Lab
I can only really speak for Ilkley but I would guess that nearly all of the Labour vote is in Keighley, which is what makes this marginal. I would go for-
Hopkins (Conservative)- 43%
Labour- 42%
Lib Dem- 7%
Others- 8%
Con hold Swing- 2.08% from Con to Lab.
“I maintain that it is incorrect to analyse the votes cast in the May District Council elections by grouping together the six wards in the Keighley & Ilkley constituency. Why? Because not all parties contested each ward, that’s why.”
That’s a fair comment Paul, but council elections are sometimes the best we have to go on.
Ilkley is a very nice place to spend a summer’s afternoon – I can recommend it to anyone passing through West Yorkshire. I am fortunate to be able to reach it by train in just over 20 minutes.
”Ilkley is a very nice place to spend a summer’s afternoon – I can recommend it to anyone passing through West Yorkshire. I am fortunate to be able to reach it by train in just over 20 minutes.”
It is indeed. The park is very nice in particular.