Comments on: Islington South and Finsbury

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 22:08:28 +0000

Thanks GT, got the ward name wrong & clearly my recollection was incorrect too.
I remember Clive Blackwood as the losing candidate to another Clive, Labour’s Efford, in Eltham in the general election of (?IIRC) 2001.

By: GT

GT — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 21:39:20 +0000

Quadrant (9 July 1992)
Islington North
Conservative gain from Labour
Blackwood, Clive D.CON 925
Glover, Christina L.LAB 640
Rorison, Elizabeth J.LD 126
Ackers, John H.GRE 40

the byelection was the only time, other than two seats in 1978 and control in 1968 that the Conservatives have held a seat in Islington since the boroughs were formed.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 20:10:53 +0000

In a sense that’s right Joe in that Ilford North is a key seat for the Tories in whatever form it’s likely to take, whereas this isn’t a serious general election battleground for them. It’s also more than possible that some Conservative sympathizers have switched purely tactically to the LDs here in a vain bid to get Labour out, which obviously wouldn’t have been a factor in Aldborough. Tories have been known to win elections in Islington though rarely: I recall them winning a small ward called I think Crescent, at least partially, before the present boundaries came into effect in 2002. Perhaps someone could enlighten me as to where that ward was.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 16:02:46 +0000

Yes – a poor Tory result and a very good one for Labour.
Looks less serious for the Tories than Aldborough though.

By: LBernard

LBernard — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:47:53 +0000

Another very good Labour result. Well done.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 11 Nov 2011 10:23:22 +0000

Interesting result from the split St Mary’s ward last night:
Lab 1128 (47.2; +14.3)
LD 641 (26.8; -5.1)
Green 317 (13.3; +1.4)
Con 282 (11.8; -8.3)
BNP 22 (0.9; +0.9)
Majority 487
Turnout 23.64%
Lab hold
Percentage change is since May 2010.
So no meltdown of the LD vote; instead it was the Tories who dropped the most. They are by no means negligible in the South of the Borough, and in some of the more upmarket wards in the North, and being beaten by the Greens must hurt a bit. The swing from LD to Lab if repeated boroughwide would clear out most of their still substantial group, but might still allow them to survive at least partially in Highbury East.

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Tue, 11 Oct 2011 00:22:02 +0000

That implies that pretty much the whole electorate has changed since 1997, although there will be a small hardcore of long term residents let’s say 10%.

This certainly puts into perspective how demographic change has completely changed inner London seats in just 20 years.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 23:03:51 +0000

I think it could be right yes.
I believe Haringey and Hackney are higher (or were in the late 1980s).

By: H.Hemmelig

H.Hemmelig — Mon, 10 Oct 2011 21:33:10 +0000

Emily Thornberry MP was on the Politics Show the other day talking about voter registration.

She said that in this constituency there was a 60% turnover of voters on the electoral register between the 2005 and 2010 elections.

Could that figure possibly be right? It sounds mighty high, even for Inner London.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Mon, 19 Sep 2011 14:28:19 +0000

UKPR notionals for the new seat mentioned above:

Lab: 20,441
LD: 15,868
Con: 10,634

Lab maj: 9.3%