Islington South and Finsbury
2005 Results:
Labour: 12345 (39.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11861 (38.3%)
Conservative: 4594 (14.8%)
Other: 2161 (7%)
Majority: 484 (1.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3860 (13.7%)
Labour: 15217 (53.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7937 (28.1%)
Other: 1192 (4.2%)
Majority: 7280 (25.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4587 (13%)
Labour: 22079 (62.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7516 (21.3%)
Referendum: 741 (2.1%)
Other: 393 (1.1%)
Majority: 14563 (41.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Islington is fashionable and up-market residential area, Tony Blair lived in Barnsbury prior to his elected as Prime Minister and the area was for a time closely associated with New Labour. However there is also a large traditional Labour vote here, with a high proportion of council tenants and a substantial Afro-caribbean community.
Outgoing MP: Emily Thornberry(Labour) born 1960, London. Educated at University of Kent. Barrister specialising in human rights. Contested Canterbury in 2001, first elected as MP for Islington South in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Antonia Cox (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. Journalist and former investment banker.Emily Thornberry(Labour) born 1960, London. Educated at University of Kent. Barrister specialising in human rights. Contested Canterbury in 2001, first elected as MP for Islington South in 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Bridget Fox (Liberal Democrat) born 1964, Amersham. Educated at Dr Challoners High School and Oxford University. Librarian. Islington councillor between 1998 and 2006 and former deputy leader of the council. Contested Islington South and Finsbury in 2005, East Ham in 2001 and Hampstead and Highgate in 1997.
James Humphreys (Green) University lecturer and former civil servant. 
Richard Deboo (Animals Count) Contested East of England 2009 European elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84213
Male: 48.5%
Female: 51.5%
Under 18: 19.6%
Over 60: 14.8%
Born outside UK: 28.2%
White: 77.4%
Black: 10.1%
Asian: 5.3%
Mixed: 3.5%
Other: 3.6%
Christian: 56.2%
Hindu: 1%
Jewish: 0.9%
Muslim: 7.7%
Full time students: 9%
Graduates 16-74: 38.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 26.6%
Owner-Occupied: 29.2%
Social Housing: 52.8% (Council: 39.1%, Housing Ass.: 13.7%)
Privately Rented: 15%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.2%
I don’t think Labour will get 25% in the General Election.
There are core and abstaining voters slowly returning to them.
But they are struggling to move it beyond much above 30%.
I think they’ll end up with about 31% unless the Tories screw up – which is still possible.
That is not a firm prediction by the way,
either way – it’s just the likely scenario and way I see things at present.
I won’t make frequent predictions from now on, but will put something else together nearer the time.
Last Summer, I thought that, as before 1997, most voters had made their mind up and there would be little of the formerly traditional Government recovery in the run-up to the election. But it does appear that there is a slow drift back to Labour. Not just core and abstaining voters but some from the minor parties – and the major party “lock-out” of the Greens etc may help Labour here.
In a city seat like this quite a lot may turn on the television debates, and for this particular seat, Nick Clegg’s performance in them.
Electoral Calculus currently has the LibDems narrowly ahead here, but within Labour’s catch-up range. I don’t think they have got it seriously wrong, although leaving aside events before the election Labour are within sampling error range.
If the General Election is on the same date as the local elections, then Labour could hold on to this seat due to increased turnout.
Eh? It is usually General Elections that increase local election turnout, not the other way round.
Given that local election turnout is so dreadfully low in the UK (not surprisingly given how Westminster has drained away local powers), I cannot think that many people who would vote in the local election anyway would not vote in the General Election unless it was on the same day. Of course, there will be the odd one or two, but hardly enough to affect the result.
Which seats have included Clerkenwell?
@ Camden John – interesting that more LD support comes from white working class council estates than gentryfied areas! I was the Liberal candidate here in 1979 with a then tiny Liberal Constituency Association of just 50 members and about 8 activists! We introduced community politics for the first time, and we concentrated on the estates in the former Borough of Finsbury, as our activists down there were genuine working class trade unionists, and the backbone of the London Branch of ALTU (Association of Liberal Trade Unionists). Many worked in the Print in Fleet Street or Gin factory. From that small acorn did Liberalism grow locally. The posh bits of Islington went orange much much later, and I suspect are prone to “fashionable” voting – thus swing around quite alot. I will not hazard a prediction as my association with the seat ended in 1981.
“Animals Count” have selected Richard Deboo here
The Animals Count website states: ” We are focusing our efforts on Islington South and Finsbury, to maximise our chances of influencing an outcome favourable for animals, because there is a close contest between Labour and LibDems, with the LibDem candidate seemingly more animal-friendly. Our participation could possibly swing the outcome in favour of LibDems due to many voters being disappointed in Labour’s broken promises for animals.”
Seems to me to be an odd way to support the Lib Dem candidate by standing against her, but each to his own!
Report in the Guardian (Dave Hill’s London Blog) that some elements in the local Labour party are talking up the Conservative’s chances of coming second.
Seems like an oblique admission that they’re worried about losing the seat to the LDs.
It would be odd if they werent worried about a seat where they are defending a majority of less than 500 and where a swing of less than 1% would unseat them. Tories coming second is unlikely, but a substantial rise in the Tory vote at LD expense is perfectly possible allowing Labour to hold on with a reduced share
Which seats have included St Mary’s ward, and which areas does that ward include?
St Marys covers basically the centre of Islington and includes the main thoroughfare of Upper Street. This area will have always been in Islington South (or Islington South West as it was known from 1950) and Islington South & Finsbury since 1974.
Which seats has Clerkenwell been in?
1885-1918 Finsbury Central
1918-1950 Finsbury
1950-1974 Shoreditch & Finsbury
1974- Islington South & Finsbury