Islington North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6339 (14.23%)
Labour: 24276 (54.49%)
Liberal Democrat: 11875 (26.65%)
UKIP: 716 (1.61%)
Green: 1348 (3.03%)
Majority: 12401 (27.84%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 16118 (51.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 9402 (29.9%)
Conservative: 3740 (11.9%)
Other: 2234 (7.1%)
Majority: 6716 (21.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3249 (10.8%)
Labour: 18699 (61.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5741 (19%)
Green: 1876 (6.2%)
Other: 651 (2.2%)
Majority: 12958 (42.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4631 (12.9%)
Labour: 24834 (69.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4879 (13.6%)
Other: 1516 (4.2%)
Majority: 19955 (55.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A compact, densely-populated inner-city seat in North London, the smallest in the country by area. It covers Tufnell Park, Archway, Finsbury Park, Highbury, While there is some gentrification this this seat covers some of the most deprived, troubled and crime-ridden parts of Islington, inclusing the huge Andover Estate. It includes HMP Holloway and Arsenal`s Emirates Stadium.
The constituency has been safely Labour since the 1930s, though the then sitting MP Michael O`Halloran defected to the SDP in 1981 and fought the seat as an independent in 1983, having lost the selection for the SDP nomination. There was a substantial swing towards the Liberal Democrats at the last election, but it would require much more to make this anything other than a Labour stronghold.
Current MP: Jeremy Corbyn(Labour) born 1949, Wiltshire. Educated at Adam`s Grammar School and North London Polytechnic. Former trade union organiser. A staunch left-winger, member of the socialist campaign group and one of Labour`s most rebellious MPs. Haringey councillor 1974-1983. First elected as MP for Islington North 1983 (more information at They work for you)
Adrian Berrill-Cox (Conservative) Educated at Reading University. Barrister, working for the Financial Services authority.Wheelchair user who has muscular atrophy.Jeremy Corbyn(Labour) born 1949, Wiltshire. Educated at Adam`s Grammar School and North London Polytechnic. Former trade union organiser. A staunch left-winger, member of the socialist campaign group and one of Labour`s most rebellious MPs. Haringey councillor 1974-1983. First elected as MP for Islington North 1983 (more information at They work for you)
Rhodri Jamieson-Ball (Liberal Democrat) Born Wales. Islington councillor since 2006.
Emma Dixon (Green) Born 1971, London 1971. Educated at St Paul`s Girls` School and Cambridge University. Barrister.
Dominic Lennon (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91584
Male: 47.4%
Female: 52.6%
Under 18: 21.2%
Over 60: 12.8%
Born outside UK: 31.2%
White: 73.4%
Black: 13.4%
Asian: 5.5%
Mixed: 4.6%
Other: 3%
Christian: 52.4%
Hindu: 1%
Jewish: 1.2%
Muslim: 8.5%
Full time students: 7.5%
Graduates 16-74: 41.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.8%
Owner-Occupied: 34.9%
Social Housing: 45.8% (Council: 32.4%, Housing Ass.: 13.4%)
Privately Rented: 16.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.3%
Here is my prediction -
Labour: 14000
Liberal Democrat: 10500
Conservative: 5500
Other: 2000
Majority: 2500
UKIP have selected Dominic Lennon here
Lab Hold= 6,500 maj
Lab Hold
Maj 5100
Lab maj 5,500
Have the Finsbury Park area and Tufnell Park always been in this seat since it was created?
yes.
After considerable trawling of the internet, I gave up trying to find out where local hustings were to be held and called the number on Jeremy Corbyn’s website (ie the local labour party).
For anyone whose interested they are at 8pm on Friday 30th April 2010 at Islington Central Library.
Incidentally, they told me the hustings were being organised by the “Islington Trades Council” but internet searches reveal this must be the “Islington Trades Union Council”. Sad they feel they have to hide it.
Lab 16000
LD 12000
Cons 5000
Green 3500
UKIP 1000
LAB HOLD
According to the BBC’s figures, turnout here was higher than the national average (65.4% v 65.1%). It must be the first time that has happened in this seat for a long time.
Looking at all the predictions here, Labour did much better than people expected. It was one of number of results where Campaign Groupies did better than the national average – Luton N, Stroud, Batley & Spen, and holding on to Halifax is also a decent example. Perhaps the unpopularity of the LD-led Council here helped Labour, too. This seat had the 4th highest Labour share of the vote in London in 1992, then swung away to the LDs, but now has swung back again quite a bit.
” It was one of number of results where Campaign Groupies did better than the national average ”
I don’t know if you can draw any particular conclusions from this or at least not the ones you seem to want to. Otherwise you might need to explain why Campaign groupies Austin Mitchell and Dennis Skinner did spectacularly badly. I suspect that demographic factors are more relevant with the obvious exception of Stroud. Was Labour’s result in Islington North or Hackney North much better than the southern seats of those boroughs or in other demographically similar London seats?