Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6278 (13.33%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 19172 (40.72%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.22%)
Green: 789 (1.68%)
Christian: 835 (1.77%)
TUSC: 135 (0.29%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
Majority: 8765 (18.62%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 17830 (40.3%)
Labour: 13682 (30.9%)
SNP: 5992 (13.5%)
Conservative: 4579 (10.3%)
Other: 2172 (4.9%)
Majority: 4148 (9.4%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber.
2001 Result
Conservative: 5653 (13.3%)
Labour: 15605 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9420 (22.2%)
SNP: 10889 (25.6%)
Other: 894 (2.1%)
Majority: 4716 (11.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8355 (17.5%)
Labour: 16187 (33.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8364 (17.5%)
SNP: 13848 (29%)
Referendum: 436 (0.9%)
Other: 578 (1.2%)
Majority: 2339 (4.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Danny Alexander(Liberal Democrat) Born 1972, Edinburgh. Educated at Lochaber High School and Oxford University. Former press officer. First elected as MP for Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey in 2005. Chief of Staff to Nick Clegg 2007-2010. Briefly served as Secretary of State for Scotland before replacing David Laws as Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Jim Ferguson (Conservative) Mike Robb (Labour) Danny Alexander(Liberal Democrat) Chief of Staff to Nick Clegg since 2007 (more information at They work for you)John Finnie (SNP) Donnie MacLeod (Green) Ross Durrance (UKIP) Donald Boyd (Christian Party) George McDonald (TUSC)Kit Fraser (The Joy of Talk)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87097
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 65.2%
Graduates 16-74: 20.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.3%
Owner-Occupied: 68.3%
Social Housing: 18.6% (Council: 15.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.6%
The majority here is pretty substantial.
Danny Alexander must have a reasonable chance of holding on
even if LD prospects in Scotland as a whole look dire – except in some of the far flung seats which tend to defy overall trends.
This isn’t completely one of the latter though – Inverness is a reasonable sized town capable of giving Labour a much better result, so perhaps the most likely result is a substantial slash in the margin?
Labour have released their target seats for the next General Election and does not include this seat. Not knowing the area at all, was wondering if it really isn’t winnable for Labour, considering that some parts of the seat had a Labour MP as recently as 1997-2005 (and I think was notionally Labour in 2005); and the incumbent MP is perhaps unpopular nationally being seen as one of the prominent faces of Austerity Britain and the Cuts?
http://www.labour.org.uk/uploads/6b94b880-df0b-ff04-7907-d31fbb040560.pdf
Trouble is, a big swing is needed, and the anti-coalition vote is likely to be split between Lab & SNP.
Having said that, Labour won a huge number of seats which weren’t official targets in 1997, and I suspect the same may be true of the Conservatives in 2010.