Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6278 (13.33%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 19172 (40.72%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.22%)
Green: 789 (1.68%)
Christian: 835 (1.77%)
TUSC: 135 (0.29%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
Majority: 8765 (18.62%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 17830 (40.3%)
Labour: 13682 (30.9%)
SNP: 5992 (13.5%)
Conservative: 4579 (10.3%)
Other: 2172 (4.9%)
Majority: 4148 (9.4%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber.
2001 Result
Conservative: 5653 (13.3%)
Labour: 15605 (36.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9420 (22.2%)
SNP: 10889 (25.6%)
Other: 894 (2.1%)
Majority: 4716 (11.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8355 (17.5%)
Labour: 16187 (33.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8364 (17.5%)
SNP: 13848 (29%)
Referendum: 436 (0.9%)
Other: 578 (1.2%)
Majority: 2339 (4.9%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Danny Alexander(Liberal Democrat) Born 1972, Edinburgh. Educated at Lochaber High School and Oxford University. Former press officer. First elected as MP for Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey in 2005. Chief of Staff to Nick Clegg 2007-2010. Briefly served as Secretary of State for Scotland before replacing David Laws as Chief Secretary to the Treasury in 2010 (more information at They work for you)
Jim Ferguson (Conservative) Mike Robb (Labour) Danny Alexander(Liberal Democrat) Chief of Staff to Nick Clegg since 2007 (more information at They work for you)John Finnie (SNP) Donnie MacLeod (Green) Ross Durrance (UKIP) Donald Boyd (Christian Party) George McDonald (TUSC)Kit Fraser (The Joy of Talk)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 87097
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 22.9%
Over 60: 21.3%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 65.2%
Graduates 16-74: 20.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.3%
Owner-Occupied: 68.3%
Social Housing: 18.6% (Council: 15.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 9.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.6%
“I’m not sure it was right to ring fence NHS.”
We’ll turn you into a Lib Dem yet, Joe! The ring fence was actually a Tory policy. Cable/Clegg had both spoken against it in the run-up to May but conceded it in the coalition talks. Actually, I suspect there is some wriggle room within the fence (of the sort you suggest) and that it will be used to some degree.
Methinks Joe of all people might be quite hard to turn into a Lib Dem………
Mind you, I could be quite a challenge, too!
I just feel he’s on the turn, Barnaby. We are trained to sense these things years, often decades, before they happen… and we are seldom wrong.
You are very wrong in my case
(although you come across as a nice person to be in that party).
On the policy points against the LDs – I made several of these several months ago in Colne Valley.
The ring fencing of the NHS was probably partly political,
although David Cameron is committed to it.
There is obvious heavy demand for it’s services, but I still think there is scope there aswell, for the reasons I gave. The question is whether any savings are kept in the NHS.
I think it’s possible that some LDs could get close to or even join the Tories, however.
I’d have thought it is pretty long shot for Labour to win here though – in fact incumbents surely have an edge here, although Hamish Gray was defeated in Skye in 1983.
LDs wouldn’t be able to handle a financial crisis like this on their own.
But I’m trying to be a bit less rude.
btw, do we have any idea what the swing was in 2005 in this new seat?
I had seen this before actually,
I think its a Thrasher & Rawlings notional they’ve compared 2005 to 2001.
So the swing was largely from SNP to LD.
Last Updated: Friday, 6 May, 2005, 02:22 GMT 03:22 UK
Result: Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey
LD GAIN FROM LAB
TOP THREE PARTIES AT A GLANCE
Liberal Democrat 40.3%
Labour 30.9%
SNP 13.5%
Swing: 6.0% from LAB to LD
IN DETAIL
Name Party Votes % +/- %
Danny Alexander Liberal Democrat 17,830 40.3 +10.8
David Stewart Labour 13,682 30.9 -1.3
David Thompson SNP 5,992 13.5 -9.5
Robert Rowantree Conservative 4,579 10.3 -2.0
Donnie MacLeod Scottish Green Party 1,065 2.4 +2.4
Donald Lawson Publican Party – Free to Smoke 678 1.5 +1.5
George MacDonald Scottish Socialist Party 429 1.0 -1.1
Majority 4,148 9.4
Turnout 44,255 63.6 +0.5
I don’t think my views have actually changed much.
Been a Tory member for 23 years.
Although the parties themselves have moved quite a lot in that period, Joe.
Cameron is only really like Thatcher in her pomp in the minds of both hardened partisans (on either side oddly). Labour moved a long way since the mid-Kinnock era, albeit it might edge back. Clegg’s Lib Dems are quite different to Steel’s Liberals or Owen’s SDP.
Seriously, I never particularly worry about it when another party has a good idea. As a party member, you are in a different position to floating voters. You have phases of not being so pleased with your own team, but tend to stick with them unless it’s totally unconscionable. I’m pretty suspicious of defectors of all shades to be honest (of members I mean rather than floating voters).
Defectors (in party members that is)
can be a bit odd,
they seem to be people who like testing arguments in different extremes sometimes,
which makes me think they’re out of tune with the real concerns of voters.
But no doubt there are genuine cases, and the respective parties should welcome them in.
This seat could go any way – but if the LibDems are punished in Scotland in the way I think they might be – then I think this is between the SNP and Labour
I understand why people leave parties, Joe, but I do find the instantly joining another one thing a bit weird. It’s probably “genuine” in many cases in the sense of no ulterior motive, but it just strikes me as a peculiar way to behave.
Mike – I think you’re being wildly over-optimistic in this particular seat even if there is a strong backlash in Scotland and elsewhere next time. A 10% swing in a four party system is tough at the best of times, and the personal vote remains very important in the Highland seats which means Alexander has a very strong base and gives SNP/Labour less to draw from. Also, for Labour, they actually did pretty well in Scotland in May so aren’t starting from a ridiculously low base.
Harriet Harman has used her conference speech in Scotland to make personal attacks on her political opponents, calling Danny Alexander a ginger rodent.
Surely the Labour Party would be better setting out their alternative ideas and policies to get the country’s economy back on its feet. Can they really win back power at the next election on this current “Tory cuts, LibDem callaborators” mantra?
This kind of stuff plays well here in Scotland although maybe ‘ginger rodent’ is a bit of a silly remark.
Labour will try and squeeze the LD vote as hard as possible in Scotland next year.
As for this seat (ignoring potential boundary changes) I would expect Labour to recover in Inverness with the LD vote holding up in places like Aviemore and Nairn.
I think Fergus Ewing will hold here comfortable in 2011, with the collapse of the LibDem vote as a result of Danny Alexander’s role in the tory coilition. Come the next general election I can see Alexander’s vote slipping to third place behind labour and the snp, such is the local outcry at his involvement in the ‘cuts’ programme. Also if a strong local independent candidate stood I can imagine them gaining a respectable vote, when you consider the Highland tendency to vote for the candidate over the party.
I now think Labour will get 2nd place here next year.
Inverness and Nairn 2011
SNP 16000 (+1)
Lab 10500 (+7)
LD 7500 (-8)
Con 4000 (nc)
Prediction for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
SNP – 13000
LD – 9000
Lab – 8000
Con – 5000
My prediction for May’s Holyrood election;
SNP – 14,000
Labour – 10,500
Lib Dem – 5,250
Conservative – 4,000
I think the Lib Dem vote will collapse and labour will see a healthy rise.
Will be interesting to see how Danny Alexander goes down at the party’s Scottish conference this weekend given that they are trying to disassociate themselves from some of the decisions made at Westminster.
Inverness and Nairn 2011:
Fergus EWING (SNP) 16,870 51.5% (+10.1%)
David STEWART (Lab) 7,125 21.8% (+0.9)
Mary SCANLON (Con) 3,797 11.6% (+1.1%)
Christine JARDINE (LD) 3,763 11.5% (-15.9%)
Donald BOYD (Christian) 646 2.0% (+2.0%)
Ross DURANCE (UKIP) 530 1.6% (+1.6%)
Even taking into account all of the factors, I’m still pretty stunned that the Lib Dems fell behind the Conservatives.
I know this was a truly shocking result (although I had predicted the LD collapse in Caitness and Sutherland last year).
I expected Labour to get 2nd and well done to Mary Scanlon for getting third place.
Good heavens.
Danny Alexander’s future does not look at all good on those figures.
Labour will certainly get much of the vote they lost to the SNP back at the general election, but I’m much less sure about the Lib Dems and Tories.
@H Hemellig
If this seat is remodelled as Inverness and Lochaber
The LDs will still have a notional 49% of the vote.
I have no idea if D Alexander will stand though.
Don’t know if Thurso would retire to make way for Kennedy.
I’m not convinced Danny Alexander is toast but Michael Moore is. The tories achieved nearly 45% in the equiv holyrood constituency.
Tories won in Moores borders seat by a much larger margin than any constituency seat retained by Labour (or gained by Labour).
The Tories now have a larger majority here than Labour have in Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn or Glasgow Provan.
I think that Dumfriesshire is now the safest Labour seat in Scotland, and Eastwood is now one of the 6 safest.
It’s rather ironic…..this is a classic constituency whereby the AV system could have turned out a different winner than Danny Alexander under FPTP !!! Maybe it’s only Lib Dem Turkeys that vote for Christmas !!!
@Dalek
Dumfriesshire…the safest Labour seat, what a joke.
It really does show how bad things are for the Tories though.
Or perhaps that could also read ‘how bad things are for Labour’ if Dumfriesshire is the safest seat they have!
Inverness Cllr John Holden has been convicted on benefit fraud totalling over 43k.
The Highland Council Labour Cllr is expected to be jailed when sentencing takes place on August 13th.
This would result in a by-election in Inverness South ward, but only if he resigns his seat!
http://www.highland-news.co.uk/News/Inverness-councillor-John-Holden-found-guilty-of-fraud-charges-15072011.htm
If any LibDem is going to get decapitated at the next general election you can put good money on it being Danny Alexander. It would be an understatement to say that his position within the coalition makes him an electoral liability; anticipate a big swing away from LD and towards SNP/Lab.
Apparently the Lib dems have achieved a shock gain in Inverness South ward, no full figures yet.
The full figures are (1st prefs)
SNP 885 33.9%
LD 747 28.7%
Lab 308 11.8%
Con 290 11.1%
Grn 157 6.0%
SCP 126 4.8%
Ind 94 3.6%
Financial fraud does seem to be disproportionally done by Labour. Either that or the press reports such frauds more vigorously.
Last round:
1091 LD
1084 SNP
Once again, the farcical scottish system of local elections has worked its magic. What acomplete and utter joke their system is-and lets not forget that it was the result of a shoddy party political deal in return for Lib Dem support for a Labour administration. Seemed like a good idea at the time I suppose.
There are lessons for the rest of us to learn there.