Inverclyde
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4502 (12%)
Labour: 20993 (55.98%)
Liberal Democrat: 5007 (13.35%)
SNP: 6567 (17.51%)
UKIP: 433 (1.15%)
Majority: 14426 (38.47%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 18318 (50.7%)
SNP: 7059 (19.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6123 (17%)
Conservative: 3692 (10.2%)
Other: 906 (2.5%)
Majority: 11259 (31.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Greenock and Inverclyde.
2001 Result
Conservative: 3000 (10.6%)
Labour: 14929 (52.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 5039 (17.7%)
SNP: 4248 (14.9%)
Other: 1203 (4.2%)
Majority: 9890 (34.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 3976 (11.5%)
Labour: 19480 (56.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 4791 (13.8%)
SNP: 6440 (18.6%)
Majority: 13040 (37.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Vacant. David Cairns (Labour) died of acute pancreatitis on the 9th May 2011.
David Wilson (Conservative) 
David Cairns(Labour) born 1966, Greenock. Educated at Notre Dame High School, Greenock and the Pontifical Gregorian University, Rome. Former Roman Catholic Priest, Director of the Christian Social Movement and researcher for Siobhain McDonagh. Merton councillor 1998-2002. First elected as MP for Greenock & Inverclyde in 2001, after the House of Commons (Removal of Clergy Disqualification) Bill 2001 allowed a former priest to be eligible for election. PPS to Malcolm Wicks 2003-2005, PUSS for Scotland 2005-2007, Minister of State for Scotland from 2007. He resigned from the government in 2008, unable to support Gordon Brown`s leadership (more information at They work for you)
Simon Hutton (Liberal Democrat) born Greenock. Educated at Glasgow University. Former campaigns officer for Jo Swinson, now a trainee teacher. Contested West Renfrewshire in 2007 Elections.Innes Nelson (SNP)Peter Campbell (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84203
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 23.4%
Over 60: 22%
Born outside UK: 2.4%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 79.3%
Graduates 16-74: 14.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.7%
Owner-Occupied: 60.3%
Social Housing: 32.4% (Council: 25.4%, Housing Ass.: 7%)
Privately Rented: 5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
I think Lab will win this – just. Majority around 500.
My best guess:
Turnout 45%
LAB: 12173 – 45.4%
SNP: 11486 – 42.9%
LIB DEM: 1340 – 5.0%
CON: 1608 - 6.0%
UKIP: 188 – 0.7%
Is this the old Greencock & Port Glasgow seat?
Not exactly the same but it covers quite a similar area.
My prediction is Labour by about 1,500 votes.
shadsy has a market up for those who wish to put their money where their keyboard is.
I’ve gone for turnout above 40% and a Labour majority of under 2000.
Any idea on a declaration time?
The extended Newsnight Scotland is scheduled to be on air until 2am, so presumably they’re expecting the declaration somewhen before then.
Going by the Newsnight report last night, Labour have got the best candidate.
The SNP woman comes across as a lightweight (but certainly not in the actual sense).
Lab maj 1,000
HH – they both seemed fine. Anabel Goldie appeared to be overly minding the Tory PPC. The UKIP nightclub owning PPC was fun and has the best name. The LibDem is the youngest PPC since universal suffrage. I see as with N Ireland, flypostering is widespread.
Close of poll BBC News reports believe that Labour will hold on here but with a greatly reduced majority.
They main basis is the size of the Labour majority (14000 +) and the fact that Labour remain a stronger force at Westminster than Holyrood (just compair 2010 to 2011).
The impression that I get is that they feel that a less than 2000 majority will be bad for Milliband (and defeat being catastrophic).
It would be tremendously funny if Labour lost here tonight. But no, I fear a majority of around 1,000-1,500 is the most likely outcome.
Looks like UKIP and Tories have retained their deposits.
Reading that turnout was 45.53% and looks like Labour holding.
I was going to put a prediction on this seat earlier today of Labour majority of 2,000.
But I put nothing in the event because I hadn’t thought it through.
I did hear a little bit about it at the end of the 10pm news,
so have perhaps been influenced by it.
but have watched nothing else.
I now suspect Labour may hold on by around 4 – 5,000.
SNP will get a battering over the Edinburgh tram decision whether they win here or not
CORRECTION: Forecast
Con gain.
Aye Joe, I heard the Tories are particularly popular in Port Glasgow and Gibshill.
Much better Labour result than I expected, and most other pundits too. It’s not great, of course, but it’s not a narrow win either, and will be broadly greatly welcomed in Labour circles given the battering we got in the Holyrood election.
Tories on 10% as always here. Must be the core Unionists. LDs 2% is that their worst ever Parl By-election?
Calum, one just has to keep going. (!)
It’s a better ratio than double glazing.
Lab: 53.9%
SNP: 33.0%
Con: 9.9%
LD: 2.2%
UKIP: 1.0%
Good result for Labour, respectable result for SNP and Tories. A shocker for the LDs. Makes Barnsley Central look respectable.
Changes since May 2010, General Election
Lab – 2.2%
SNP +15.5%
Con -2.1%
LD -11.2%
UKIP -0.2%
and since 2005
Lab +3.1%
SNP +13.4%
Con -0.3%
LD -14.8%
Whatever the General Election result across Britain as a whole next time,
whether it’s Conservative or Labour (or hung in either of those directions)
it’s pretty clear that in Scotland Labour will dominate again, and the SNP and Tories will be 4 or 5 points apart, well behind,
and the LDs will be fourth.
There’s massive split voting – as has been clear for about 3 years.
I don’t quite agree actually I think the SNP may still manage 30% overall but maybe Labour will only be 2/3% down or so on 2010. I still think there might be leakage to the SNP in some places like Lanarkshire, Ayrshire and Falkirk but perhaps only a couple of labour seats will be lost to the SNP.
Labours main advantage was that they won here in 2011 (albeit by 500 votes).
They may have been helped by the industrial action day in the UK.
The SNP could have performed better with a carismatic candidate.
She was not exactly a Winnie Ewing, Margo MacDonald, Jim Sillars or Rosanna Cunningham…..while the Labour candidate was no Bob Gillespie.
It’s more likely that the SNP will gain their seats off the LibDems and I can see them gaining all notionally held LibDem’s seats bar Orkney-Shetland. I agree Labour will still be dominant in Scotland both in terms of votes and seats. However, we could see the SNP imploding at Westminster just as what happened to the Quebec nationalist parties in Canada, where in recent Parliamentary election they were just reduced to four seats and most of its support went to the New Democratic Party.
I think Labour are going to be more than just relieved by this result, I think they might have grounds to be absolutely delighted at how well they did win. The SNP should probably be quite cross.
And I have to say that the Tories still holding 10% of the vote in a seat like this in a by-election is actually quite a credible performance too.
Inverclyde was never really going to be anything important from a UK point of view, as only the SNP had a chance of upsetting Labour here. But I think that both Labour and Tories will be quite pleased, and the SNP will be able to brush their defeat aside and move on quickly.
So its just difficult questions for Nick Clegg then? The Lib Dems were never going to win here-or come close to winning. But holding third place should have been a minimum for them really. Liberals used to be quite strong in Inverclyde. It wasn’t that long agothat they controlled the council.
That’s absolutely righyt Shaun. There’s no doubt who the main losers are here, it’s the Lib Dems, who as you say have a long tradition of doing well in the area. They were as the Alliance quite close to winning Greenock & Port Glasgow in the 1980s. The SNP didn’t do badly as such, but must have hoped for better. It’s a decent performance for the Conservatives as you say, and I think Labour, having expected a close-run thing, will be buoyed by the comfortable victory. It’s a very similar result to Glenrothes in a way, though there Labour actually increased its majority – nevertheless, it’s another by-election which was widely expected to be very close (including by me), but turned out not to be.
An excellent result for Labour, respectable for the Tories.
Disappointing for the SNP and disasterous for the Lib Dems.
It really does seem like in terms of the ticket splitting Joe talks about, Westminster by-elections behave more like general elections than Holyrood ones.
It was also clear from the news reports that Labour had a much better candidate than the SNP, and would have benefitted from some sympathy concerning the deceased former MP.
Fair’s fair, I owe Dalek/Peter Crarar an apology. For once his prediction of Lab maj 9000 was a bit closer than mine (Lab maj 1000).
I should have put some money on my prediction:
“Lab: 52%
SNP: 31%
Con: 10%
LD: 5%
UKIP: 2%”
Not sure why the consensus was a very narrow Labour victory – as I said then, “Labour remain the most obvious anti-coalition vote at Westminster”.
OK, enough gloating
Much like Miliband’s performance, it’s not a disaster for Labour, but it’s not a great success, either – better than many expectations, but still a little down on the general election.
It’s the opposite story for the SNP – below expectations, but a big increase on the general election result. If they could pick up an additional 15% across Scotland, they’d win a long list of seats.
Just fine for the Tories in national terms. Of course, the Conservative vote in Scotland remains pitiful, but there was no expectation that this seat would change the party’s fortunes, and there was no collapse in remaining support.
The Lib Dems, meanwhile, did see their limited support collapse – worryingly for them, even in this seat which has traditionally been one of their stronger areas of west central Scotland. Is there any way back for the party now?
Finally, a disappointing UKIP result, down from the general election, following several strong by-election results for the party. No major worry for the party, as this was never going to be a target seat.
“LDs 2% is that their worst ever Parl By-election?”
No, they took 1.6% as the SLD in Glasgow Central back in 1989. The worst Liberal result was 1.2 at Glasgow Camlachie in 1948.
Good posts Warofdreams.
I’m not sure the Lib Dems will get much comfort from getting a similar vote share to what they got in 1989.
Terrible result in a seat where the Liberals were recently strong in local government and would have some so close in 1983 on the current Westminster boundaries.
Even when the Liberals did so badly as the SLD in Glasgow Central in 1989 the remained strong in Inverclyde.
Inverclyde was on the knife edge even in 1988. An remained so in 1992, 1995, 1999 and 2003.
The Liberals were traditionally strong in the West End of Greenock, Gourock, Inverkip and Wemyss Bay. Port Glasgow, East Central Greenock and the peripheral council estates of SW Greenock were more Labour and Kilmacolm (a Tory area) was won by the Lib Dems many local elections.
The Liberals would have come very close in the current Inverclyde seat in the 1983 general elections, as they came within 4625 in Greenock & Port Glasgow.
NA Godman Labour 20,650 46.83%
A Blair Alliance (Lib) 16,025 36.34%
C Crichton Conservative 4,314 9.78%
A Clayton SNP 2,989 6.78%
G McKinlay Workers Revolutionary Party 114 0.26%
Electorate: 59,437; Turnout: 74.18%;
Majority: 4,625 (10.49%)
The boundaries then excluded Wemyss Bay, Inverkip, Gourock and Kilmacolm which were in Renfrew West & Inverclyde.
A McCurley Conservative 13,669 32.69%
JD Mabon Alliance (SDP) 12,347 29.53%
G Doherty Labour 12,139 29.04%
W Taylor SNP 3,653 8.74%
Electorate: 53,510; Turnout: 78.13%;
Majority: 1,322 ( 3.16%)
As Labours support in this seat was concentrated in Linnwood and Erskin, the SDP lead in Wemyss Bay, Inverkip, Gourock and Kilmacolm would have been substantial (though perhaps not 4625).
The Liberals would certainly have won the 1997 – 2005 Greenock & Inverclyde constituency in 1983.
Thanks Peter, that is very well-researched and interesting.
Far from vote splitting etc Scotland is now a two party state. Combined Lab/SNP support far greater than combined Tory/Lab in England.
I agree that Scotland is now a two party state. It will be interesting to see how well the new scottish tory leader tried to brand their party as being a responsable party of government at Westminster, and a responsable third party at Hollyrood.
A Scot made an interesting comment on ConHome the other day, saying that conservative-minded voters in Scotland were generally more old-fashioned and more religious on social issues, but were wet patricians on the economy rather than free-market liberals.
In some ways my own views tend in that direction.
With this mindset, conservative voters in Scotland started to get put off during the economic liberalism of the Thatcher years, and are now being doubly put off by the libertarian social policies as well as the Thatcherite economics of Cameron’s Tories.
The commentator concluded that the best thing the Tories could do would be to get out of Scotland and leave a space for a more socially conservative, more economically centrist new right-of-centre party to eventually grow from the bottom up.
I’m inclined to agree.
Since Scotland and England are practically now seperate political entities, the Conservative have got to come up with some sort of solution, or their showing in Scotland is bound to fall even further.
What sort of demographics of the Scottish tories aiming themselves at nowerdays?
From what I’ve read about the subject, many Labour and SNP voters in Scotland see tory voters as ranging from being ‘a bit old fashioned’ at best, to ‘traitors’ at worst.
I find it interesting that the Conservatives in Wales, a country inherently far less small-C conservative than Scotland, have managed to stage an IMO rather impressive recovery, whilst here they are getting nowhere, bar a handful of constituencies gained at Holyrood level since 1999…
Is this actually down to incompetence, as no doubt Richard would argue, or is it due an emotional and somewhat irrational dislike of them? I certainly believe that the potential conservative vote in Scotland is far larger than the terrible 14% they won this year and I wonder how many potential and probably former Tory voters are hiding amongst the SNP ones…
And I understand the argument about Scots being less liberal than the English, I believe it myself, but the Scottish Tories can now only dream of being as ‘unpopular’ as they were during the Thatcher years, if you look at the vote shares they achieved between 1979 and 1992.
‘Is this actually down to incompetence, as no doubt Richard would argue, or is it due an emotional and somewhat irrational dislike of them?
Presumably the ongoing toxicity of the Tory brand in Scotland I guess.
The 3 FPTP holds were possibly down to the personal votes of those MSPs as the SNP ‘won’ those constituencies on the list and were third in that respect in Dumfriesshire, Eastwood and Edinburgh Pentlands.
(the SNP actually ‘won’ like that everywhere except Ren. South, Glasgow Provan and Shetland I believe.)
One bit of talk I heard after the SNP’s resounding victory in the Scottish parliamentary election was that they were aiming for control of Glasgow Council. Can that be in any way realistic, or is it brave talk and no more?
‘One bit of talk I heard after the SNP’s resounding victory in the Scottish parliamentary election was that they were aiming for control of Glasgow Council. Can that be in any way realistic, or is it brave talk and no more?’
I’ve had a look at the figures and it looks narrowly possible if the SNP gains the third seat from Labour in 4 member wards and another 2/3 seats and the lib dems are wiped out.
It could actually go down the wire with 3-5 greens holding the balance of power.
Surley the 9.9% the tories got can’t just be down to hard core unionists. There’s got to be some genuine conservatives, just like there is in every constituency, just not in very large numbers.
It was a solid performance for the Tories – clearly they do have some votes here.
But I wouldn’t pop open the champagne on 10% of the vote.
“I find it interesting that the Conservatives in Wales, a country inherently far less small-C conservative than Scotland, have managed to stage an IMO rather impressive recovery”
Indeed. In fact, its not even a matter of Tory ‘recovery’ in Wales (unless you mean since 1997). In fact, Wales has never been MORE Tory and its getting more so it seems. The height of Tory electoral fortunes in Wales was actually during the Thatcher years when the party had never been more popular and was challenging for status as largest party at one point. Now thats something to think about isn’t it!
“It was a solid performance for the Tories – clearly they do have some votes here.
But I wouldn’t pop open the champagne on 10% of the vote”
Nobody is saying you should. But neither should we rush to talk down a performance that was actually fairly reasonable. 10% was ok and we should say so.
Shaun B
As a Labour lolitician, I agree. It shows what you can do with a sensible, decent, local candidate with a very strong anti-SNP message.
Yes I do think it’s a good result for the Tories – within a context, and we should say so.
If you omit Inverkip, Gourock Weymess Bay, The West End of Greenock and Kilmacolm to leave Port Glasgow and Central East and SW Greenock, the Tories would have been on less than 5% and the Lib Dems less than 1%.
Port Glasgow and Central East and SW Greenock
Lab: 64.2%
SNP: 28.0%
Con: 4.4%
LD: 0.9%
UKIP: 0.5%
Inverkip, Gourock Weymess Bay, The West End of Greenock and Kilmacolm
SNP: 46.0%
Lab: 32.6
Con: 15.4%
LD: 3.5%
UKIP: 1.5%