Ilford South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14014 (27.13%)
Labour: 25311 (49.43%)
Liberal Democrat: 8679 (16.8%)
UKIP: 1132 (2.19%)
Green: 1319 (2.55%)
Others: 746 (1.46%)
Majority: 11297 (22.3%)
2005 result
Conservative: 11628 (27.2%)
Labour: 20856 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8761 (20.5%)
UKIP: 685 (1.6%)
Other: 763 (1.8%)
Majority: 9228 (21.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10622 (25.7%)
Labour: 24619 (59.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4647 (11.3%)
UKIP: 1407 (3.4%)
Majority: 13997 (33.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15073 (30.1%)
Labour: 29273 (58.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3152 (6.3%)
Referendum: 1073 (2.1%)
Other: 1448 (2.9%)
Majority: 14200 (28.4%)
No boundary changes: There was some consideration of moving Cranbrook ward to Leyton and Wanstead to reduce the disparity in size between the two seats, but it was rejected as it would have crossed the obvious natural boundary of Wanstead flats, the river Roding and the North Circular.
Profile: Ilford South was traditionally a true marginal and a good bellwether seat, since 1951 it has been won by the party that went on to form the government in every election except 1992, when it was narrowly gained by Labour. Demographic changes however mean it now appears to have become a safe Labour seat.
Ilford South was always less Conservative than its northern partner. This is a densely packed residential seat without the Essex countryside of Ilford North, it is less affluent, the housing less desirable. In many ways it resembles its neighbour East Ham more than Ilford North. Most notably it now has a very large ethnic population, comparable with seats like Bethnal Green and Bow. It is the 7th most Hindu and 11th most Muslim seat in the country. Ilford is perhaps still associated with the suburban essex part of London, but demographic change has since made this seat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Current MP: Mike Gapes(Labour) born 1952, Wanstead. Educated at Buckhurst Hill County Hill and Cambridge University. Former Labour party organiser. Contested Ilford North 1983. First elected as MP for Ilford South in 1992. Has served as PPS to Paul Murphy, Adam Ingram and Jeff Rooker. Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Toby Boutle (Conservative) Educated at Queen Mary`s College, Basingstoke, and Oxford University. Barrister and former speechwriter for William Hague.Mike Gapes(Labour) born 1952, Wanstead. Educated at Buckhurst Hill County Hill and Cambridge University. Former Labour party organiser. Contested Ilford North 1983. First elected as MP for Ilford South in 1992. Has served as PPS to Paul Murphy, Adam Ingram and Jeff Rooker. Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Anood Al-Samerai (Liberal Democrat)Wilson Chowdhry (Green)Terry Murray (UKIP) John Jestico (Save King George Hospital)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 106606
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 26.2%
Over 60: 15.1%
Born outside UK: 33.4%
White: 45.1%
Black: 11.4%
Asian: 39.3%
Mixed: 2.8%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 42.5%
Hindu: 10.5%
Jewish: 2.9%
Muslim: 19.6%
Sikh: 9.4%
Full time students: 6.9%
Graduates 16-74: 23.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.9%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 7.5% (Council: 3.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 17.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
It is unusual for a constituency to be so comprehensively split asunder as is proposed for Ilford South. The largest part of his seat (3 of 9 wards) goes to the enw Ilford North with 2 wards each going to other seats – W&W, East Ham and Barking. Margaret Hodge will be over 70 by the time of the next election so perhaps she will retire then enabling Mike Gapes in there (that seat also includes the Becontree ward of Barking & Dagenham which was part of his seat when he was first elected in 1992). But the Mike Gapes himself is not that much youner than Hodge
“Both Mike Gapes and Lee Scott are really dedicated Ilford MP’s so whoever wins there will represent their constituents well. I dont think that the two MPs will stand against each other however.
You are Right HH Stephen Timms is the MP for East Ham and is likely to remain so in the new seat.”
To be honest, I would have thought that with the new East Ham seat it will be a challenge for a middle aged white man like either Timms or Gapes to avoid a serious challenge for the nomination from an Asian candidate. Both East Ham and Central Ilford are exceptionally dominated by Asians today, 70-80% of the population in some areas.
Personally I would have thought it quite likely that Gapes will go for Ilford North and win it. As the Tories have less strict chicken running rules than Labour, Lee Scott might be able to move over to Wanstead & Woodford. Politically I cannot see IDS being able to desert Chingford & Edmonton.
“Margaret Hodge will be over 70 by the time of the next election so perhaps she will retire then enabling Mike Gapes in there (that seat also includes the Becontree ward of Barking & Dagenham which was part of his seat when he was first elected in 1992). But the Mike Gapes himself is not that much youner than Hodge”
Yes that’s a thought. To minimise the BNP threat, Labour will most likely prefer a white successor to Margaret Hodge.
Cheers Barnaby, The bungalow estate is one of the nicest parts of South Ilford so I am not suprised that both Labour and the Conservatives are competitive there (I should have known it was a marginal!). This small patch has somehow managed to maintain a sense of neatness when most of Ilford South has fallen of hard times.
I wouldnt split this seat up myself, like Pete, I don’t like the way wards have been dished out to other seats. I was more in favour of an Ilford and Barking seat and a seat linking Dagenham with Havering somehow.
HH – Mr Timms will have no problem getting nominated for the new cross borough seat. I would imagine the East Ham Labour Party to be dominated by middle class white folk who have lived in Newham for many many years, Ilford Labour team may be more mixed as Asains in Ilford seem to be a bit more politically invovled than in Newham, but im not 100% sure. Stephen also has more claim to the new seat than Mike Gapes but moving into Barking could be an option for him.
Barking is a whole different kettle of fish compared to Ilford, the BNP will pipe up again once they decide to stop arguing amongst themselves so whoever Labour choose there, as Hodge will be too old, really needs to be local, young, white, working class and not afraid to speak their mind on housing and immigration etc
East Ham Labour Party is very multiethnic & has been for years. It has some very prominent Asian figures such as Unmesh Desai & Amarjit Singh and several well-known figures in the Afro-Caribbean community too. It has also some white working-class figures and some of the white middle class (not least the Mayor Sir Robin Wales) and I think to characterise it as dominated by the white middle class is not all that accurate.
I did say I was not 100% sure – I made an observation based on people I know who are linked to the East Ham Labour group who are from the middle class Newham community. “Dominated” was too strong a word! It makes sense for the group to be mixed bearing in mind its in Newham.
Thanks for correcting me Barnaby.
For some reason I always see Newham Asians as less involved with politics than Ilford Asians.
I am sure both Margaret Hodge and Gapes will retire. However Ian Duncan-Smith will not. He will surely pull rank and stand in the reconstituted Wanstead and Woodford (less safe than it was when I grew up in the area owing to social change and the addition of wards from east of the Roding). I don’t see the Boundary Commission losing out on this one as they explain persuasively why a seat crossing the Lea is necessary.
So Lee Scott will have to fight a difficult marginal seat against a new Labour candidate, Another Tory discomforted by the reduction in seats!
Being 63 in 2015, Gapes can maybe be convinced to stand one more time. A bit of incumbency will probably help Labour in the new Ilford
Between 1997 and 2010 the Lea was crossed as part of the Poplar & Canning Town. I don’t know why the re-creation of that seat wasn’t reconsidered since it’s only 19 months since the seat existed.
Because Tower Hamlets is almost exactly entitled to 2 seats owing to the overcrowding of Bangladeshi families in council accommodation.
Of course it would be possible if you had a cross-borough seat with Hackney. However I have to agree with the Commission in this case that crossing the Lea further upstream (if you have to cross it) is better. They have adopted similar principles elsewhere (see Hexham).
Im with Andy here, cross the Lea at Poplar and Canning Town and reconfigure Hackney and Tower Hamlets so the numbers still stay within the limits. Those boroughs are more closely linked than C&E.
I know Mike Gapes slightly & saw him recently. I have very little reason to suppose he will retire; my money is on him standing again at least once more.
Well, assuming Margaret Hodge does retire then he will have to stand for Ilford North against Lee Scott as the Labour Party won’t allow him to move to the vacant Dagenham North seat as this one doesn’t contain any wards from Ilford South (although it doers adjoin it).
Mike Gapes is a really good MP – it would be a real shame to lose him as he has really fought for his constituents. Ilford is quite lucky as it has two very dedicated MP’s who have united several times over various issues affecting Ilford despite being from different parties.
I would much rather see Mike stand in Barking than Hodge. I do wonder how her recent comments on mass immigration being here to stay has gone down with her Barking constituents.
There’s no reason for Mike Gapes to retire unless he encounters more serious problems from some of his constituents over his pro-Israeli stance like he did in 2010:
htttp://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/30492/ilford-south-election-2010
ANDY JS
“Between 1997 and 2010 the Lea was crossed as part of the Poplar & Canning Town. I don’t know why the re-creation of that seat wasn’t reconsidered since it’s only 19 months since the seat existed.”
JOHN CHANIN
“Because Tower Hamlets is almost exactly entitled to 2 seats ”
If that is the BC’s rationale, then somebody should tell them that Waltham Forest will also fit exactly into 2 seats. I think Tower Hamlets and Waltham Forest are the only boroughs where this is the case. I don;t see how you can argue that because Tower Hamlets is entitled to exactly two, that its boundary should not be crossed, and then go and argue for crossing the boundary of another borough in exactly the same position
Pete – I have also been saying having Waltham Forest as two seats would be a much better idea than having the Lea Crossed by the creation of Chingford and Edmonton.
I would have imagined you could have a Chingford and Walthamstow East and a Leyton and Walthamstow West. One Tory seat, One Labour seat. A simple solution surely?
Continuing our discussion about Redbridge, which has mainly about Ilford North and the contrary long term trends in it (which appear to be to Labour net),
I have also been thinking about Mayfield in Ilford South.
At face value, I thought it was quite an achievement for the Tories to regain seats there in 2002 and 2006, although they never won all three seats back, and clearly couldn’t win it atall on a General Election turnout in 2010.
But there clearly is a core Conservative vote there still. I wonder whether it has less demographic change, and is more like Barking and Dagenham from Google Street View?
I’ve re-read this whole thread, and see some answers to my question – Mayfield is a fairly self contained bungalow estate, out of character with the rest of Ilford South.
couldn’t actually see many bungalows
but it looks like a fairly nice estate – some council, some private, spacious
and quiet.
I think the way it’s actually quite far east, tucked between and away from the two main east-west routes, and away from Ilford town centre has kept it more like it used to be,
but as I said,
the Tories clearly get swamped there on a full turnout.
Did you notice this comment Joe during your reread?
“The Barkingsides, Fairlops, Aldboroughs in Ilford North are strongholds again, having been challenged in 1994/98,”
No, I didn’t because I was looking at other people’s comments to get something about Mayfield.
I remember saying that.
I didn’t expect Aldborough to start reverting to Labour again – in 2002 and 2006 it seemed to show one of the larger swings back to the Tories (like Fairlop).
I think Barkingside could come under similar pressure as it’s a rather urban ward and I think comes down to the A12.
Fairlop, however, remains a more “Essex” and edge of London feel, with slightly larger detached properties as one fades off into Chigwell and Woodford.
Even more of a surprise is losing a seat in Clayhall, but it made a bit more sense to me when I worked out from the map that a large part of Clayhall is in the inter-section between Woodford Avenue and the A12 – so it comes closer south than I realised, because the northern part is more like Fairlop.
In retrospect, the clues perhaps that something was going wrong for the Tories in Redbridge beyond the core Ilford South were probably in 2006 when we failed to extend our overall lead on the council.
Labour were going through the floor on local election abstentions but it was clear we were failing to increase our vote to near Thatcher or early Major (1990-92) levels.
“Fairlop, however, remains a more “Essex” and edge of London feel, with slightly larger detached properties as one fades off into Chigwell and Woodford.”
Indeed Fairlop is in that part of Ilford North which if anything has trended Tory. IN the 60s and 70s it was more often than not a Labour ward. It went split in 1994/8 but by 2010 was safely Tory again – one of the safest Tory wards in Ilford North
Pete
Was there really a Barking ward in Ilford S between 1983-1992?
I thought there were no cross borough constituencies in Londn then.
Interesting Fairlop was Labour in the 60s and 70s.
I thought even 1974 was just Hainault but perhaps I’m wrong.
Don’t you think the split loss of Fairlop in 1994/98 was more a “new” Labour/swing of the political pendulum loss
disguising the long term Tory trend which resumed?
Somebody on here did write that Ilford North could again come under pressure because of demographics, (2 or 3 years ago) and I think it was a Labour supporter – I rather brushed it off
but I think I knew he was right.
“I think Barkingside could come under similar pressure as it’s a rather urban ward and I think comes down to the A12″
I think Barkingside should be safely Tory for the time being but as Barnaby has mentioned it may become a split ward in the future.
Mayfield has managed to dodge the tide that has washed over much of Ilford South and made the area look and feel downmarket. I suspect the fact that the housing is the best in South Ilford probably has something to do with it.
I must say, Labour have got some very good councillors in Seven Kings and Goodmayes (and Loxford) who have very publically put pressure on the council to improve the area which must help to explain why their majorities are fairly sizeable here (as well as demographic change).
“Interesting Fairlop was Labour in the 60s and 70s.
I thought even 1974 was just Hainault but perhaps I’m wrong.
Don’t you think the split loss of Fairlop in 1994/98 was more a “new” Labour/swing of the political pendulum loss
disguising the long term Tory trend which resumed?”
Labour had all three seats in Fairlop in1974, albeit quite narrowly and won them easily in 1971. The boundaries were different then – there was no Fulwell ward so I suspect that area was split between Fairlop and Barkingside. This means that the boundaries were less favourable for Labour then than now.
I agree with your second point as Labour only managed to make it a split watd in the 1990s, winning 2 seats in 1994 and only 1 in 1998
“Pete
Was there really a Barking ward in Ilford S between 1983-1992?
I thought there were no cross borough constituencies in Londn then.”
There were cross borough seats. There was a change to the brough boundary between Redbridge and Barking. about half the then Goodmayes ward was moved from Redbridge to Barking, this being that part where the Becontree estate spilled over the borough boundary. Goodmayes thus became a truncated 2 member ward for 1994 and Becontree was an entirely new ward of Barking & Dagenham
Yes Pete, Waltham Forest is entitled to exactly 2 seats.
However when I was trying to construct seats in East London I found it difficult to get anything to work. The Boundary Commission clearly had the same problem.
The fact that there was a Poplar & Canning Town seat from 1997 to 2010 doesn’t make it a sensible seat in community terms. There is very limited communication between the 2 boroughs because of the wide flood plain of the Lea, although there are now 2 main roads crossing since they built the Limehouse link.
The Lea forms a major barrier all the way up. You don’t have to link Chingford with Edmonton. You can link Walthamstow with Tottenham Hale, or Leyton with Hackney Wick across the olympic site. None of the alternatives are satisfactory.
Probably the most sensible solution would have been to add a bit of Essex (incl Thurrock) to East London. However Essex is short of quota (16.8 seats), so you might then need to cross the boundary with Suffolk…..It’s genuinely hard to construct sensible seats under the constraints used by the Boundary Commission. You are nearly always left with a “residual” seat somewhere that makes no sense at all.
The Commission should give in and realise that splitting a few wards is the sensible option.
They also need to relax the quota.
I can’t help but feel in a time when our population is growing rapidly reducing the number of MP’s seems a completely daft move. If anything you would make constituencies smaller placing areas together with real links.
There are still some quite nice areas in Ilford South – Mayfield as discussed, which is surprisingly secluded and relatively undisturbed.
I’d have thought the Tories could have done a bit better in this constituency if they’d been better prepared for some of the changes in the area.
It would have taken some of the pressure off Ilford North, at least for Redbridge local elections.
Yes certainly parts of Cranbrook & Mayfield wards are perfectly pleasant, and some streets in Newbury too. Mayfield was a solid Tory ward 20 years ago & I’d be interested to know what the non-white population is estimate to be in it; streets of bungalows such as abound in the ward don’t often seem to attract non-whites all that much, but this could be an exception.
I don’t have figures at hand, although I made a guess.
Redbridge is a good Borough for green space.
The trouble is it has some major roads through it which seem to encourage areas near them to get tatty.
“Mayfield was a solid Tory ward 20 years ago & I’d be interested to know what the non-white population is estimate to be in it; streets of bungalows such as abound in the ward don’t often seem to attract non-whites all that much, but this could be an exception”
I’d put the non-white figure here at about 70%
68% Asian
2% Black
Maybe even higher, but I have not visited the area for quite some time.
I believe Ilford town centre has been in this constituency ever since the old Ilford seat was abolished in 1945, is this correct?
Yes
Thank you Pete
Basically Ilford N has never really included any of the area which is normally known to its residents, though some of it is & has been postally part of Ilford. People who live in the Gants Hill area tend to say they live in Gants Hill rather than Ilford though postally it is part of the latter.
White British percentage, 2001 / 2011:
Chadwell: 73.3% / 36.7%
Clementswood: 22.7% / 9.4%
Cranbrook: 37.3% / 17.9%
Goodmayes: 38.9% / 16.9%
Loxford: 23.7% / 10.2%
Mayfield: 48.8% / 20.1%
Newbury: 38.0% / 15.6%
Seven Kings: 39.2% / 16.4%
Valentines: 33.7% / 14.2%
Ilford South: 39.0% / 17.3%
The white British population surely cant get that much lower. Maybe the tories will start to pick up in this constituency a little as the demographic changes have largely already fully happened.
On the contrary I personally think the speed of white flight will if anything have increased since the 2011 census because of the August 2011 riots.
Yes – maybe we’re already there
and we’ll see if the Tories can attract some more Asian support.
If the local party gets is effective – unlike in Brent – maybe it can be done.
But Ilford South is already a very safe Labour seat.
I take Andy’s point,
but L Bernard and I think Lawrence Davies
seemed to think the recession, and the near state of recession since
has slowed down the demographic change a little.
Unless, you think we really could see single figure percentages in a few wards.
White overall, Ilford South:
2001: 45.1%
2011: 24.2%
The Labour Party will be chuffed with this census breakdown. An eternally Labour seat.
“The white British population surely cant get that much lower.”
It might not, but on the other hand in Ealing Southall the white British percentage in the Lady Margaret ward has declined from 17.6% to 9.2% and in Southall Broadway from 8.7% to 3.5%.