Ilford South
2005 result
Conservative: 11628 (27.2%)
Labour: 20856 (48.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 8761 (20.5%)
UKIP: 685 (1.6%)
Other: 763 (1.8%)
Majority: 9228 (21.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 10622 (25.7%)
Labour: 24619 (59.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4647 (11.3%)
UKIP: 1407 (3.4%)
Majority: 13997 (33.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15073 (30.1%)
Labour: 29273 (58.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3152 (6.3%)
Referendum: 1073 (2.1%)
Other: 1448 (2.9%)
Majority: 14200 (28.4%)
No boundary changes: There was some consideration of moving Cranbrook ward to Leyton and Wanstead to reduce the disparity in size between the two seats, but it was rejected as it would have crossed the obvious natural boundary of Wanstead flats, the river Roding and the North Circular.
Profile: Ilford South was traditionally a true marginal and a good bellwether seat, since 1951 it has been won by the party that went on to form the government in every election except 1992, when it was narrowly gained by Labour. Demographic changes however mean it now appears to have become a safe Labour seat.
Ilford South was always less Conservative than its northern partner. This is a densely packed residential seat without the Essex countryside of Ilford North, it is less affluent, the housing less desirable. In many ways it resembles its neighbour East Ham more than Ilford North. Most notably it now has a very large ethnic population, comparable with seats like Bethnal Green and Bow. It is the 7th most Hindu and 11th most Muslim seat in the country. Ilford is perhaps still associated with the suburban essex part of London, but demographic change has since made this seat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Current MP: Mike Gapes (Labour) born 1952, Wanstead. Educated at Buckhurst Hill County Hill and Cambridge University. Former Labour party organiser. Contested Ilford North 1983. First elected as MP for Ilford South in 1992. Has served as PPS to Paul Murphy, Adam Ingram and Jeff Rooker. Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee since 2005 (more information at They work for you)
Candidiates: 
Toby Boutle (Conservative) Educated at Queen Mary’s College, Basingstoke, and Oxford University. Barrister and former speechwriter for William Hague.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 106606
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 26.2%
Over 60: 15.1%
Born outside UK: 33.4%
White: 45.1%
Black: 11.4%
Asian: 39.3%
Mixed: 2.8%
Other: 1.4%
Christian: 42.5%
Hindu: 10.5%
Jewish: 2.9%
Muslim: 19.6%
Sikh: 9.4%
Full time students: 6.9%
Graduates 16-74: 23.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 25.9%
Owner-Occupied: 72.7%
Social Housing: 7.5% (Council: 3.7%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 17.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 8.5%
64 Responses
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It was an excellent Conservative result and does bode well for Conservatives keeping control of Redbridge council.
I still think though that it will be very difficult to gain this seat at the general election.
July 12th, 2008 at 8:08 amIt’s not hard to expect Gapes to hold when a nigh-on 11% swing is required to oust him - even the most generous polls towards the Tories are only just into that sort of territory
But as I said on the WSW thread, a decent mayoralty from Boris could see better-than-expected swings across London so, while this is a very long shot for the Tories, it isn’t impossible
July 12th, 2008 at 9:12 amRuislip Northwood
True blue is left looking rather silly after this result. He seems to be confusing two different issues - This result does not suggest that Mike Gapes will have difficulty holding this seat - I dont think anyone has suggested he would. Cranbrook is by far and away the most Tory ward in this constituency but it is nevertheless an extremely good result for them to hold by such a convincing margin.
July 12th, 2008 at 10:39 amIm not sure what True Blue’s motivations are. LIke JJB I thought he was just disaffected from elements of his local party in Brent/Harrow. His correct prediction of the GLA seat in that area being gained by Labour gave his subsequent comments some credibilty but he has forfeited much of that here
Twickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
“It was an excellent Conservative result and does bode well for Conservatives keeping control of Redbridge council”
I hope so. The Conservatives I met there did seem aware of the issues we face in the south part of the Borough, and the need to target more seats, as 2010 could be our last opportunity to make it more secure. I feel somewhat more re-assured that they are starting early.
July 12th, 2008 at 6:44 pmPages: « 1 2 3 4 [5] Show All