Hyndburn
2010 Results:
Conservative: 14441 (33.84%)
Labour: 17531 (41.08%)
Liberal Democrat: 5033 (11.79%)
BNP: 2137 (5.01%)
UKIP: 1481 (3.47%)
Green: 463 (1.09%)
English Democrat: 413 (0.97%)
Independent: 378 (0.89%)
Others: 795 (1.86%)
Majority: 3090 (7.24%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18287 (45.7%)
Conservative: 12783 (32%)
Liberal Democrat: 5684 (14.2%)
Other: 3234 (8.1%)
Majority: 5504 (13.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 12549 (31.8%)
Labour: 18136 (46%)
Liberal Democrat: 5577 (14.1%)
BNP: 2444 (6.2%)
UKIP: 743 (1.9%)
Majority: 5587 (14.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 12681 (33.2%)
Labour: 20900 (54.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 3680 (9.6%)
UKIP: 982 (2.6%)
Majority: 8219 (21.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15383 (31.9%)
Labour: 26831 (55.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4141 (8.6%)
Referendum: 1627 (3.4%)
Other: 290 (0.6%)
Majority: 11448 (23.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Graham Jones (Labour) Hyndburn councillor.
Karen Buckley (Conservative)Graham Jones (Labour) Hyndburn councillor.
Andrew Rankine (Liberal Democrat)Kerry Gormley (Green) Granville Barker (UKIP)David Shapcott (BNP) Christopher Reid (English Democrat)
Kevin Logan (CPA) Born 1943. Retired vicar, journalist and author.Craig Hall (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 92619
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 25.5%
Over 60: 19.9%
Born outside UK: 5.5%
White: 91.5%
Asian: 7.6%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 75.7%
Muslim: 7.3%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 13.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35%
Owner-Occupied: 74.5%
Social Housing: 14.6% (Council: 10.3%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 7.8%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 17.2%
If Karen Buckley works hard canvassing, it is possible she could take the seat for the Tories, but only if the local Conservative splinter group field their own candidate…if not then I think Labour could hold this seat but by by a greatly reduced majority… and I think the Lib Dems will take a greater share of the vote, more than they have done in the past, but not enough to get close to winning this time !
Sorry Dalesman but I dont see where the Lib Dem Revival is coming from in this seat. The last time there was a Lib Dem Councellor in Hyndburn was in 2005/6 and that was through a defection from Labour in Great Harwood, who lost is seat with only 20% of the vote at the subsiquent local elections. Prior to that the last Lib Dem Councellor was Yvonne Starrs for the Barnfield ward and she retired in the mid 1990′s and they did not field a candidate. She was also their candidate at the 1992 GE.
In regards to the May 6th, im going for a labour hold of 2000 votes easily.
HI Sparky, I agree with you in some ways, the local Lib-Dems have neglected Hyndburn in the past, but things are about to change so I am told, the revival will come post May 6th really… but when you consider that in the past they have polled some 5,500 votes for doing absolutely nothing, no canvassing, no work, barely even a local party..that is quite an achievement and a good base to work from for the future…I suspect Labour will take this seat but with a greatly reduced majority..it really depends on whether the local Tories decide to field an independent Tory or not who could potentially split the vote..
Lab Hold
Maj 1400
CON 1000 (AS NO INCUMBENT)
BT, I dont think so i know the seat on the ground and the local are party are very split at the selection of Karen Buckley, due to the fact of her not being seen as the “local” choice, there is still mutterings of an independant Con Standing, Lab Maj 2000 easily!
Lab maj 1,000
Full List
Granville BARKER (UKIP)
Karen BUCKLEY (Conservative)
Kerry GORMLEY (Green)
Craig HALL (Independent)
Graham JONES (Labour)
Kevin LOGAN (Christian Peoples Alliance)
Andrew RANKINE (Lib Dem)
Chris REID (Eng Dem)
David SHAPCOTT (BNP)
Well I’ve only had literature from the BNP and Labour and I’m not voting for either so it looks as if I’m not voting this time.
The accurate predictions ‘on the ground’ are closing in on a Labour majority of 2,000 – 3,500.
A 3% – 4% swing to the Conservatives.
Just an update from the insider who brought you Karen Buckley as favourite at 1/1 odds to beat the other 5.
Variance is 1) tied between Labour and Tory and a 2) Labour win of 5,000 based on the all undecided’s going one way.
LAB HOLD
Lab hold, maj – 750
I predicted this in March 2008.
Although I did make further statements after the Tory breakthrough in the polls that year that it would probably go Con – I should have stuck to this.
The swing was lowish, in line with 2009 indications.
“There’s quite a wide range of plausible results in Hyndburn – not an easy one – this is my most likely.
2009/2010
Lab 18,141 41.8% -3.9%
Con 15,320 35.3% +3.3%
LD 5,382 12.4% -1.8%
BNP 3,689 8.5% +2.3%
UKIP 868 2.0% +0.1%
Total votes 43,400
Lab majority 2,821 6.5%
LAB HOLD
Swing 3.6% from Lab to Con
March 14th, 2008 at 1:24 am “
That was a very accurate prediction.
The result this year was quite similar to the 1979 result when then the Labour majority was 3,294 (as Accrington).
True – I saw Accrington being analysed quite early on election night in 1979.
David Butler
and Bob McKenzie (sadly died in 1981)
were so good with their analysis they made up for a relatively small number of live declarations.
Compared to past elections, Labour did well here, as obviously they did compared to Burnley.
Actually, even though I was living elsewhere in Lancashire at the time, I have never really understood why Labour lost this seat in the 1980s, whilst holding onto Blackburn and sitting supposedly irremovable in Burnley. I think that the strength of party organisation had quite a lot to do with it, and perhaps the comparative success of the Labour establishment in holding out the far left in different seats.
This seats illustrates the general point that Labour are holding on to seats in the North they lost in the Thatcher years, whilst in a whole range of seats in the past, for example in Kent, and see recent discussion on the Hemel Hempstead thread, they are down to their levels of support in the Thatcher landslides, and in some cases doing even worse than that.
This is not good for the health of British politics, and it is going to make it very difficult for Labour to get back into office. I suspect that grassroots Labour people in places like Hyndburn may just not realise that their party has totally collapsed in large areas of England and doesn’t even have the base from which to start re-grouping.
“This seats illustrates the general point that Labour are holding on to seats in the North they lost in the Thatcher years, whilst in a whole range of seats in the past, for example in Kent, and see recent discussion on the Hemel Hempstead thread, they are down to their levels of support in the Thatcher landslides, and in some cases doing even worse than that.”
But we didn’t have a Thatcher era ie 1983 or 1987 result.
If we had we sould have seen Conservative gains not only in places like Hyndburn and Halifax but also in places where the Conservatives didn’t come close to winning in the 1980s like Stalybridge, Morley, Don Valley, Worsley, Derbyshire NE, Penistone etc.
Of course there are seats that the Conservatives did win in the 1980s but wouldn’t now – Leeds NE, Leeds NW, Hallam and other urban types.
What you have in both north and south are similar patterns – private sector working class voters trending Conservative and public sector middle class voters trending anti-Conservative.
The UK is becoming more and more like the USA with voting along grounds of employment and ethnicity rather than class.
Richard – Lab majority in NE Derbyshire in 1983 was only 2000, and less than 4000 in 1987, but I take your point
The Conservatives safely held Baxenden ward last night with 58% of the vote, but there was a 15% swing to Labour in second place.
Considering that is real ‘posh Lancashire village’ territory, that’s quite a result. Does appear that there is a real South/ Midlands-and-North divide in by elections lately
Hyndburn’s arithmetic is currently C 17 Lab 14 Ind 4. It is possible for Labour to take overall control but not elementary. Labour should have little difficulty in gaining Clayton-le-Moors, Immanuel & Rishton from the Conservatives, but to take control Labour will also have to win Overton which is more difficult. Could be fairly close between NOC NO CHANGE and LAB GAIN CONTROL but I reckon the latter is more likely.
Hyndburn of course was a Tory gain in 2000, labour gain in 2002, Tory gain in 2004 and then I think it may have switched another two times again.
So a Conservative loss to either NOC or Labour would be entirely expected and indeed necessary for Labour to be able to claim to be even treading water.
Labour gain is-I would agrre with Barnaby-more likely.
Agree with the above two. Labour has 3 safe seats up. Tories 6 seats of which 4 are marginal and only 1 safe. The independents have 3 seats up and will retain 1.
Baxenden – recent by election saw Tory majority cut from 500 to 250. Probably larger majority with sitting councillor.
Central – popular asian Labour councillor. 500 majority. Ukip standing.
Altham – popular Labour councillor majority up from 300 to 400.
Church – small asian population, deprived white ward, Tory asian candidate. Lab majority 250 to 300.
Huncoat – strong independent will see reduced maj against paper candidates. 400 down to 250.
Immanuel – smallest Tory majority 62. Weak Labour campaign. Should fall on swing.
Clayton – labour activists busy, small Tory maj 80, no campaign, local right wing independent standing. Lab gain
Rishton – two horse race, larger seat, Tories down to 1 councillor. Tory 100. High voter turnout area – labour activists busy – Lab gain
Overton – large Tory seat with 200-300 majority. Solid large labour vote 40%. Current councillor popular, defected from Tory to Ind. Will steal 500 Tory votes. Labour through middle as at County Council.
Milnshaw – eccentric Ex lab, current Mayor, did deal with Tories putting them in power. Deal excluded Tory candidAte last time. Deal collapsed after complaint to CCHQ. Mayors vote to collapse in squeezed 4 horse race with Lab Tory Ind x2. Traditional Lab seat, labour Activists busy. Lab gain
Barnfield. Safe Tory seat in past against weak opposition on split ballot with green. No green but Ind Tory in 3 horse race. Lab candidate very popular. Don’t be surprised at Lab gain
St Oswalds – should be safe Tory. Lab came close in general with Ind standing. Two horse race this time. Big national swing will cud make this close. Likely Tory maj 250.
ALTHAM
Miles Parkinson Labour 1/25
Paul Stephen Todd Conservative. 20/1
BARNFIELD
Paul John Barton Conservative Evens
June Harrison Labour 5/6
Tony Hindley Independent. 50/1
BAXENDEN
David Hartley Labour 20/1
Kath Pratt Conservative.1/50
CENTRAL
Bobby Anwar UK Independence Party 100/1
Mohammad Ayub Labour 1/3
Razaq Hussain Conservative. 6/4
CHURCH
John Broadley Labour 1/20
Mohammed Hussain Conservative. 16/1
CLAYTON LE MOORS
Nick Collingridge Independent 11/10
Chris Fisher Labour 4/5
Janet Storey Conservative. 20/1
HUNCOAT
Sam Cudworth Labour 2/1
Jean Hurn Conservative 20/1
David Parkins Independent.1/3
IMMANUEL
Judith Helen Addison Conservative 11/8
John McCormack Labour. 1/2
MILNSHAW
Paul Cox Labour 4/6
Roger Jepson Conservative 5/4
Malcolm Eric Pritchard Independent 20/1
Christian Paul Rayner Independent. 100/1
OVERTON
Roy Atkinson Conservative 11/10
David Mason Great Harwood Independents 12/1
Gareth Molineux Labour. 4/6
RISHTON
Clare Cleary Labour 1/3
Stanley Horne Conservative. 6/4
ST OSWALDS
Stewart Eaves Labour 12/1
Brian Roberts Conservative 1/10
Odds virtually spot on for May.
Runners and riders next May
Altham – Lab 1/4 Tory (sitting) 3/1 – Lab maj 250
Baxenden – Lab 10/1 Tory (sitting) 1/15 – Tory maj 250
Barnfield – Lab 3/1 Tory (sitting) 1/4 – Tory maj 200
Central – Lab 1/10 Tory (sitting) 15/1 – Lab maj 600
Church – Lab (sitting) 1/10 Tory 15/1 – Lab maj 300
Netherton – Lab 4/6 Tory (sitting) 7/4 – Lab maj 100
Overton – Lab 5/4 Tory (sitting) 4/6 – Tory maj 100
Peel – Lab (sitting) 1/100 Tory 500/1 – Lab maj 400
ST Andrews – Lab 4/6 Tory (sitting) 7/4 – Lab maj 100
ST Oswalds – Lab 5/1 Tory (sitting) 1/10 – Tory maj 200
Rishton – Lab 1/10 (sitting) Tory 20/1 – Lab maj 450
Spring Hill – Lab 1/2 (sitting) Tory 2/1 – Lab maj 250
Lab gain 4 from Tories.
Labour 22 Tories 10 Ind 3
These were the predictions for last May and I have aded the result after the winners name.
In summary incumbency helped a lot, as did campaigning. More than ever. Addison (Tory) in Immanuel exemplified this point in a traditional Labour marginal seat.
The other big issue is the collapse of the Tory vote in ‘well to do areas’, Tory Heartlands.
Baxenden safe Tory down from historic 1000 and a normal 500 majority to less than 250.
Overton which once had three Tories taken by Labour with 200 majority and probably woin in a two horse race.
A 500 Tory majority wiped out in Barnfield which has large affluent areas.
And in Rishton which has large affluent areas (and the wealthiest SOA in Hyndburn) which had three Tories at one stage has switched to 3 Labour.
The same in St Oswalds. A safe surbibiton white flight area with decent Tory majorities still has 3 Tories but only by a slender majority of 100 in a larger seat with 50% more voters.
Contrast that in Labour seats where the Tory vote held up strongly and would suggest a different kind of Tory. ‘Little Englanders’.
This demographic may make it easier for a Liberal (totally absent for years) fightback easier in Tory areas and impossible against Labour.
ALTHAM …. straight forward… historic Labour majority 200
Miles Parkinson Labour 1/25 —- ELECTED with 500 Maj
Paul Stephen Todd Conservative. 20/1
BARNFIELD….. good prediction.. historic Tory majority 500
Paul John Barton Conservative Evens
June Harrison Labour 5/6 — ELECTED with 100 Maj
Tony Hindley Independent. 50/1
BAXENDEN …. predictable but treaty reduced majority
David Hartley Labour 20/1
Kath Pratt Conservative.1/50 —- ELECTED with (greatly reduced) 250 Maj
CENTRAL …. predictable on incumbancy
Bobby Anwar UK Independence Party 100/1
Mohammad Ayub Labour 1/3 ———- ELECTED MAJ 1000
Razaq Hussain Conservative. 6/4
CHURCH …predictable
John Broadley Labour 1/20 ———- ELECTED MAJ 400
Mohammed Hussain Conservative. 16/1
CLAYTON LE MOORS … predictable outcome.. close
Nick Collingridge Independent 11/10 ———- ELECTED Maj 4 from Labour
Chris Fisher Labour 4/5
Janet Storey Conservative. 20/1
HUNCOAT predictable
Sam Cudworth Labour 2/1
Jean Hurn Conservative 20/1
David Parkins Independent.1/3 ———- ELECTED Maj 400 from Labour
IMMANUEL .. surprise
Judith Helen Addison Conservative 11/8 —– ELECTED Maj 100
John McCormack Labour. 1/2
MILNSHAW …. predictable
Paul Cox Labour 4/6 ——-ELECTED Maj 250 over both
Roger Jepson Conservative 5/4
Malcolm Eric Pritchard Independent/ Ex Labour 20/1
Christian Paul Rayner Independent. 100/1
OVERTON .. historic Tory majority 300+ …great prediction
Roy Atkinson Conservative 11/10
David Mason Great Harwood Independents 12/1
Gareth Molineux Labour. 4/6 ——– ELECTED Maj 4 from Labour
RISHTON ….. tight but predictable
Clare Cleary Labour 1/3 —- ELECTED Maj 150
Stanley Horne Conservative. 6/4
ST OSWALDS … predictable result, surpass by how few ditto Baxenden (Tory Heartlands)
Stewart Eaves Labour 12/1
Brian Roberts Conservative 1/10 ———– ELECTED Maj lowly 100
After last years successful insight (1 surprise Immanuel) here’s this years….
2012 Runners and Riders (with odds)
Set against a backdrop of a government struggling with bad press for 30 continuous days it is far more difficult to predict. There is also more third party candidates and this usually hinders the opposition to the government of the day. Set against this a the benefit the Conservatives have had previously in two horse races of a coalition of anyone and everyone who is anti-Labour.
—————————————————–
Altham: Labour Gain MAJ 400
Chris Fisher (Lab) 1/50
John Hodgkiss (Ind in Hyndburn), 30/1
Marion Rayner (Con) – seat currently held by Conservative Susan Haworth 20/1
Last year the new Council Leader romped home by a 500 majority. The Conservative win in 2008 was by around 50. Conservatives not seen and no leaflet.
—————————————————-
Barnfield: Labour Gain from Conservatives in tight finish … MAJ 100
TONY DOBSON (Con), 5/4
Richard Kelly (Lib Dem), 100/1
Joyce Plummer (Lab) 4/6
Strong Liberal seat in the 90′s, where the Greens did well in the early millennium. Local Labour candidate against sitting Conservative. Would have been a cliff-hanger but for the national problems of the Conservatives. Labour have been 400 votes behind in recent times. LibDem lives 15miles away in another Borough. Conservatives have worked the ward hard. Fell to Labour last year by 100.
—————————————————-
Baxenden: Tories hold on just … Maj 150
David Hartley (Lab), 4/1
TERRY HURN (Con) 1/5
Conservatives active in this safe seat. Labour inactive but only lost by 250 last time. Reduced majority and reduced turnout though if it all goes wrong this seat could fall as it contains the squeezed middle and voters who are really hurting.
—————————————————-
Central: Labour GAIN … Maj 300
ALLAH DAD (Con), 5/4
Abdul Ghafar Khan (Lab) 4/7
Largely Asian seat. Conservative councillor has a great record in this seat in terms of votes but disgruntled voters. Fell to Labour last year with 1100 majority. Ward politics make the result volatile but Labour seem to have much more support.
—————————————————-
Church: LAB HOLD … Maj 250
Basharat Khan (Con), 3/1
Malcolm Pritchard (Ind), 10/1
JOAN SMITH (Lab), 1/4
Stephen Talbot (Lib Dem) 100/1
Labour vote to largely hold up, the rest to split. Labour most active in the ward. Independent is sitting County Councillor but discredited. LibDem unknown in working class ward with some 400 asian votes which will split.
—————————————————-
Netherton: LAB GAIN … Maj 250
Noordad Aziz (Lab), 1/2
LYNN WILSON (Con) 7/4
This normally safe Labour seat has fallen on a marginal result to the Conservative Councillor twice before. Labour the most active. Conservatives done a bit of canvassing. Safe Labour gain.
—————————————————-
Overton: LAB GAIN … MAJ 300
PETER CLARKE (Con), 7/4
Graham Davidson (UKIP), 25/1
John Duckworth (Ind), 100/1
Jamie Govier (Gt Har Ind), 100/1
Kerry Molineux (Lab) 1/2
Safe-ish Conservative seat fell to Labour last year in 3 horse race with Independents. Labour very active. Not of the others active very much. Same split vote with Labour winning with around 50% of the vote.
—————————————————-
Peel: Labour’s safest seat. LAB HOLD … Maj 400
Paul Brown (Ind in Hyndburn),
WENDY DWYER (Lab)
Out of Town Landlord standing. No Odds.
—————————————————-
Rishton: No Odds. LAB HOLD … MAJ 500
HARRY GRAYSON (Lab),
Warren Melia (Con)
Very popular Labour Councillor. Labour very active in the ward.
—————————————————-
Spring Hill: LAB HOLD … Maj 100
MUNSIF DAD (Lab), 4/6
Kim Furness (Lib Dem), 10/1
Kenneth Smith (Ind in Hyndburn), 10/1
Mohammed Younis (Con) 3/1
Split field. Conservatives fielding the County Councillor. Part asian- part white will see interesting voting patterns. Normally safe Labour seat. LibDem lives on large white Council Estate. Independent is ex-union official. Labour will win or come second in every ballot box, no other candidate will achieve that.
—————————————————-
St Andrews: LAB GAIN … MAJ 50
Bill Pinder (Lab), 4/5
BRIAN WALMSLEY (Con) Evs
The most unlikely result. Labour part active. Conservatives putting in a lot of effort to hold on. Normally a Tory seat by 200 votes or a 9% swing to lose. Prediction is a 12% swing from 2008 to Labour. Conservatives have held on against the grain in Oswaldtwistle last year.
—————————————————-
St Oswald’s: LAB GAIN … MAJ 200
Stewart Eaves (Lab), 4/6
MARLENE HAWORTH (Con), 5/4
Paul Thompson (UKIP) 100/1
Labour the most active. Their candidate has stood 3 times and whittled the Conservative majority down to 150 last year in two horse races. UKIP and Government unpopularity should Labour home just with the help of UKIP.
—————————————————-
12 seats – 11 Labour + 1 Conservative
Labour gain 7 seats from Tories
New Council
Labour 25
Conservatives 7
Independents 3
BBC website reporting that Ken Hargreaves, former Tory MP for this seat from 1983 to 1992, has died after a long illness aged 73
Declaration of Hyndburn in 1987 can be seen here-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ht9sJH6KWbM&feature=relmfu
It begins at exactly the 7 minute mark. You can tell just by looking at Keifer Sutherland’s face that he knew he had lost….
Sorry not Keifer Sutherland, Keifer Coombes LOL!!!
If the boundary changes go through (….stop giggling, come on)……..Hyndburn is split asunder and Accrington’s town centre is ripped from the rest of the town to be put in “Rossendale and Oswaldtwistle” -
Map:
http://assets.boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/proposals/145%20Lancashire/Rossendale%20and%20Oswaldtwistle%20CC.pdf