Hull West and Hessle
2010 Results:
Conservative: 6361 (20.19%)
Labour: 13378 (42.46%)
Liberal Democrat: 7636 (24.24%)
BNP: 1416 (4.49%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.36%)
English Democrat: 876 (2.78%)
TUSC: 150 (0.48%)
Majority: 5742 (18.22%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 15244 (55.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5814 (21%)
Conservative: 5741 (20.7%)
Other: 885 (3.2%)
Majority: 9431 (34.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5929 (20.5%)
Labour: 16880 (58.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4364 (15.1%)
UKIP: 878 (3%)
Other: 865 (3%)
Majority: 10951 (37.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6933 (18.1%)
Labour: 22520 (58.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6995 (18.2%)
Referendum: 1596 (4.2%)
Other: 310 (0.8%)
Majority: 15525 (40.5%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Alan Johnson(Labour) born 1950, London and orphaned at an early age. Educated at Sloane Grammar School. Former postman who went on to become the General Secretary of the Communication Workers Union, one of hte few union leaders to support the abolition of Clause IV. First elected as MP for Hull West and Hessle in 1997. Has served as a junior minister at the DTI 1999-2000 and Education 2000-2004 before joining the cabinet as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in 2004. Served as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry 2005-2006, Secretary of State for Education 2006-2007 and Secretary of State for Health 2007-2009. Home Secretary 2009-2010. Briefly served as Shadow Chancellor from 2010 to January 2011, before resigning for personal reasons. In 2007 contested the Labour Deputy leadership, coming second to Harriet Harman (more information at They work for you)
Gary Shores (Conservative) East Riding councillor.Alan Johnson(Labour) born 1950, London and orphaned at an early age. Educated at Sloane Grammar School. Former postman who went on to become the General Secretary of the Communication Workers Union, one of hte few union leaders to support the abolition of Clause IV. First elected as MP for Hull West and Hessle in 1997. Has served as a junior minister at the DTI 1999-2000 and Education 2000-2004 before joining the cabinet as Secretary of State for Work and Pensions in 2004. Served as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry 2005-2006, Secretary of State for Education 2006-2007 and Secretary of State for Health 2007-2009. Home Secretary 2009-2010. In 2007 contested the Labour Deputy leadership, coming second to Harriet Harman (more information at They work for you)
Mike Ross (Liberal Democrat) Hull councillor since 2002.
Ken Hordon (UKIP) Edward Scott (BNP) Peter Mawer (English Democrat)
Keith Gibson (TUSC) Lindsey oil refinery worker. Contested Yorkshire and Humberside in 2009 European elections for No2EU.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 79750
Male: 48.9%
Female: 51.1%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 22.3%
Born outside UK: 2.9%
White: 97.6%
Black: 0.3%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 73.3%
Muslim: 1.1%
Full time students: 2.7%
Graduates 16-74: 10.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 40.6%
Owner-Occupied: 55.5%
Social Housing: 27.7% (Council: 21.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.8%)
Privately Rented: 13%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 20.5%
It might have the effect of raising turnout – we’ll have to see for who.
Dale (in Elloughton) is an expanding ward, with the development at South Hunsley.
I think the Tories will be quite unhappy with these changes though.
After the shock of 2001, a lot of effort was put in to build a strong position up (2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011) and I think some of it is support for David Davis.
I hope they still feel motivated to vote in what could be a Hull seat, but if it’s marginal they should.
I’m talking about Haltemprice and Howden.
According to the UKPR notionals, it turns out the Guardian numbers actually underestimated the projected Tory majority. The UKPR figures are:
Con: 15,053
Lab: 14,617
LD: 11,622
Con maj: 436
Yes, the Tory vote is quite substantial in some of these areas.
We’ll just have to see who this motivates to try harder.
It could cause the LD vote to collapse, but I’m not entirely where it would go here – can see a strong case for it going off in two quite large chunks.
Labour have had very low turnouts in safe seats in Hull though, and they’ve also been squeezed in Haltemprice and Howden.
But the Tories have also been very low in Hull.
Very large divergence in turnout between Hull West and Haltemprice: something like 45% vs 70% in recent elections.
The Tories should still be able to get some more votes out from the Haltemprice area – turnout did get a push in 2005 when the LDs ran a decapitation strategy but it is not back to 1992.
As Andy says, it could be Labour that has more votes available that haven’t been voting already.
People perhaps might not have realised that there was a significant Labour recovery in Haltemprice and Howden in May 2011,
(and they also increased their vote in the General Election).
Dale, for example, which is based on Brough, and part of South Hunsley, aswell as Skidby,
saw two of the Labour candidates beat the Lib Dems,
although the Tories were well ahead.
In 2003 and 2007 Labour polled a derisory vote.
So whereas there are a lot of Tory votes to be incorporated into this seat, plus some possible unwind of tactical voting in Hull,
there are Labour votes in the Haltemprice area aswell.
‘Boundary changes in 1983 added the safe Labour ward of Myton (which included Hull City Centre)’
Has Hull city centre been in
Hull Central 1885-1955
Hull West 1955-74
Hull Central 1974-83
Hull West 1983-97
this seat since then
Apparently an unnamed Tory a few months ago said they had “no chance” of winning the proposed Hull West seat despite the favourable calculations that have been made. Maybe they believe there’s a lot of untapped Labour support in this area as perhaps evidenced by the very low turnouts in its current form as a safe seat.
‘Boundary changes in 1983 added the safe Labour ward of Myton (which included Hull City Centre)’
Has the area covered by that ward been in
Hull Central 1885-1955
Hull West 1955-74
Hull Central 1974-83
Hull West 1983-97
and this seat since then?
“Maybe they believe there’s a lot of untapped Labour support in this area as perhaps evidenced by the very low turnouts in its current form as a safe seat.”
Or maybe its because these notional results are based on the 2010 election results and in Hull West Labour suffered a drop of over 13%.
Almost any Labour recovery whatsoever would put the proposed Hull West back into Labour hands, and they have a good deal of ground they can make up. In 2005, the proposed Hull West would have been solidly Labour for instance.
Myton was in Hull East 1955-74
A good example of a boundary change not being able to factor in how the parties would actually fight the seat, and the likely effect on turnout.
I’d have thought even in 2010 conditions, this would be a Labour majority of about 3,000,
even if the official correct figure is a Conservative lead.
Stuart Randall has died:
ht tp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-humber-19270869
Goodness our peers are dropping off at a bit of a rate right now. Sorry to hear.
Usually Barnaby, its the Conservatvie peers numbers who get reduced in this way.
Its an astonishing fact, but Labour are still by far the largest party in the House of Lords! That really does need to be addressed. Is time Mr Cameron put a block on appointing new Labour peers until the two main parties at least reach equal numbers-or more appropriately, the Conservatives move ahead of Labour to reflect the result of the 2010 election..
That really does illustrate that the current arrangements for the House of Lords are untenable. How many peers will there be by the time the Conservatives move ahead of Labour? Rather puts the lie to the argument that reform of the Lords shouldn’t be a priority. I’m no great fan of the proposals the Lib Dems made, but something needs to change.
Shaun, can I suggest you reform the House of Lords?
I think that the Tories will benefit from some tacticle Lib Dem voters (in Hull and Hessle) returning to them but the perception of this seat now being marginal will motivate more Labour voters to vote.
The addition of three more East Yorkshire wards helps the Tories but so does the omission of Derringham (that is moving to Hull North).
In 1983, despite unfavourable boundary changes (the addition of Myton from Hull Central) there was a large swing to the Conservatives.
This is not something that would have been percieved as possible in much of the 1979 to 1983 mid term. If history repeated its self the Tories could gain (or ‘hold’) Hull West.
Dalek – do you think the boundary changes will happen?
The revised proposals will be out on the 14th or 16th of October.
I can’t see any alternative for Hull other than linking all 4 Holderness wards with the city for parliament, so I think that the current Hull proposals will stand.
I don’t see ‘Westminster & (South) Kensington ‘ surviving.
The traditional link between The City of London and Westminster will be maintained (even though it was not for the GLA).
In RBK & C and Westminster I’m sure we will see a Kensington Constituency with all the RBK & C wards not included in Chelsea & Fulham with 3 Paddington Wards.
Other than the St Johns Wood and Marylebone wards that will be in Camden & Regents Park the rest of Westminster (except three Paddington wards) will be in a City of London & Westminster Constituency.
The 1950 to 1955 Hull Haltenprice more or less recreated.
This has a much larger Conservative majority than the knife edge one that came with the initial proposal.
This is the kind of seat that could go Labour in a landslide year like 1945, 1997 or 2001 but would be impossible for them to win in any other context.