Huddersfield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11253 (27.77%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10023 (24.73%)
BNP: 1563 (3.86%)
Green: 1641 (4.05%)
TUSC: 319 (0.79%)
Majority: 4472 (11.03%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16255 (46.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8091 (23.2%)
Conservative: 7414 (21.3%)
Other: 3068 (8.8%)
Majority: 8164 (23.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 7597 (21.7%)
Labour: 16341 (46.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 7990 (22.9%)
BNP: 1036 (3%)
Green: 1651 (4.7%)
Other: 325 (0.9%)
Majority: 8351 (23.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8794 (24.9%)
Labour: 18840 (53.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 5300 (15%)
UKIP: 613 (1.7%)
Green: 1254 (3.5%)
Other: 582 (1.6%)
Majority: 10046 (28.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9323 (20.9%)
Labour: 25171 (56.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 7642 (17.2%)
Referendum: 1480 (3.3%)
Other: 938 (2.1%)
Majority: 15848 (35.6%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Barry Sheerman(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Karen Tweed (Conservative) Works for Leeds NHS trust.Barry Sheerman(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
James Blanchard (Liberal Democrat) IT professional. Former councillor in the London Borough of Islington. Contested Hackney & Stoke Newington in 2005
Andrew Cooper (Green) Manager of an Energy Saving Trust advice centre. Kirklees councillor since 1999. 
Rachel Firth (BNP) Paul Cooney (TUSC) Unison health branch secretary.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 85658
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 20.8%
Born outside UK: 11%
White: 81%
Black: 4.1%
Asian: 11.5%
Mixed: 2.9%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 64.5%
Muslim: 9.1%
Sikh: 1.9%
Full time students: 7.8%
Graduates 16-74: 17.3%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.1%
Owner-Occupied: 62.8%
Social Housing: 21.8% (Council: 17.8%, Housing Ass.: 4.1%)
Privately Rented: 11%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 27.1%
Lab maj 4,500
This Labour council has done nothing to help the people who live on my street, Cherry Nook Road in Deighton in the Ashbrow ward. In fact we have been totally ignored despite many, many complaints about the anti-social behaviour which has increased expurnentially since the council wasted thousands of pounds last year creating a ‘motorcycle circuit’ that runs along our ‘no through road’, causing havoc and fear. Our street lighting is desperately inadequat resulting in recuring crimes against vehicles, houses and people. Promises by local Labour coucillors have come to nothing.
Re the present campaign, here we are in the penultimate week before the election and everyone but Labour have put some campaign information through my door. Clearly we are seen, here in Deighton, as inconsequential to Labour. Our lives have been disrupted because Kirklees don’t care about us, and our complaints go unacknowledged for the most part.
WHAT DO WE HAVE TO DO?
I find it strange that the Labour party put up a sign in Fartown saying “vote local labour”. So the national Labour party have been ignored. Is this because Council leader Mehboob Khan should be the candidate and not the unpopular, amongst Local Labour members, Barry Sheerman? Perhaps Barry Sheerman’s personal attacks on Gordon Brown will not have helped his cause. His desire for increased payments for m.p.s may not quite have caught the public mood.
Year after year, Mehboob Khan states that the Greenhead Council team “don’t do national politics”. This year, however, the leaflet promoting Mohan Sokhal includes quite a few references to national politics. This isn’t surprising in itself because of the GE, but I wonder if they will “do” national politics next year if the Tories / Lib Dems form the next Govt.
LAB HOLD
Paul, all the local Labour leaflets were like that. They certainly did not stick to local issues.
Huddersfield is now Conservative Target 90.
If Barry Sheerman has a personal vote things could look very interesting when Sheerman surely steps down at the next General Election. He said in the local paper the last (2010) campaign wore him out and he was tired at the end of it.
Another very accurate prediction from Pete: he said 4,500 and it was actually 4,472.
This was a surprisingly good Conservative performance.
I believe there are no Conservative councillors in this constituency.
What was the highest vote the Conservatives got in any constituency where they have no councillors?
I suspect it would be Eastleigh
There must be quite a few constituencies where all of the major parties have a sizable core vote, but are outnumbered in most of the wards.
Denton and Reddish is a good example. In the 2008 locals within that constituency, the Tories polled 34.3% against Labour’s 48.1%, but still were unable to gain a seat (we missed out on Denton West by just 13 votes).
A slightly different situation is where you have seats where all the wards are marginal such as in Tamworth. Labour have almost been wiped out on the town council despite winning 33% of the vote. The opposite sort of thing happened to the Tories in the late 1990s.
Billericay was like this in the mid 1990s.
The LDs would win some wards, Labour other wards,
the Tories were present throughout, certainly with a slight lead in 1996, but only won one seat in Wickford.
In 1979 the Conservatives won Huddersfield W and Labour won Huddersfield E.
Were these wards approximately in each seat:
West
Crossland Moor
Greenhead
Lindley
Newsome
East
Almondbury
Ashbrow
Dalton
Kirkburton
If so then the local elections results in 2010 were:
West
Lab 10945
LibD 8348
Con 7845
Grn 3718
TUSC 1472
BNP 1326
Ind 446
East
Con 10042
Lab 9933
LibD 8211
Grn 3548
BNP 1824
Fascinating figures. I think you are right about the wards which were in each seat
I was surprised to see this MP on the New stating that David Chaytor should not have been jailed. I’ve always respected Barry Sheerman. I doubt it’ll havea political effect here and in any case, I expect him to retire at the next election.
The Kirklees council website gives detailed ward profiles with lots of data from the 2001 census.
A bit dated now but very interesting.
For example in 2001:
West 78% white
East 88% white
I suspect that the West number would be lower now while East’s has remained about the same as it has rural Kirkburton (where the population seems to have increased).
Do you think that the local elections and General Election were fairly similar here in May 2010?
It is fascinating the way the two former seats appear to have swapped politically since 1979. Thanks for the figures.
Ashbrow (a 2004 onwards ward combining affluent Fixby with tough Brackenhall) would actaully have been split. Fixby used to be in the old Birkby ward (also a ward of contrasts) that was in West . Brackenhall was in the old Deighton ward (safe Labour) that was in East.
Birkby was won on occasion by the Conservatives (e.g. 1992), so the Con vote would prob be a little higher and lower in West and East respectively than your figures suggest. Interesting and well done nonetheless.
I’m trying to find a “safe” seat where the MP has 30% of the vote.
The Deputy PM’s performance in the Commons today was extraordinary.
Define “extraordinary” Joe please!
Don’t think you’ll find what you want, not even in Scotland. I suspect Huddersfield will re-enter the truly safe Labour column at the next election though even now it hardly looks more than semi-semi-marginal.
“I’m trying to find a “safe” seat where the MP has 30% of the vote.”
How safe do you want? Upper Bann looks pretty safe, yet the MP has only 33.8% of the vote. Birmingham Hall Green is also fairly safe, yet the MP has only 32.9%.
And if you want somewhere safer than Huddersfield, Rosie Winterton in Doncaster Central took only 39.7% of the vote, yet has a near 15% majority.
I just think he doesn’t look like someone who has progressed naturally into office – he seems out of his depth, and quite childish in his replies and comments.
Some of them have done – they look completely at ease at it – but Clegg isn’t.
Because the proposed AV system is non-compulsory preferential voting it means that most MPs who currently win at least 40% of the vote would probably still be elected because a lot of people will still only vote for one candidate. And most MPs do win at least 40%.
It would be a different story if the proposed system was compulsory preferential voting like they have in Australia.
Continuing my somewhat cack-handed attempt to preview some of the more interesting local elections this year, Kirklees is another hung council which is currently Lab 24 LD 20 C 19 Green 4 Ind 2. Labour looks extremely likely to gain Dalton & Dewsbury W from the Lib Dems, and Dewsbury S from the Tories. Other results are in some cases harder to predict. It isn’t at all impossible for the Tories to gain up to 4 seats from the LDs, their prime targets being Lindley & Holme Valley N & their outside bets being Almondbury & Cleckheaton. However I suspect the LDs might just be able to hold on to the last 2, and Holme Valley N could also be won by an Independent rather than a Tory as it was last year. There is another distant Labour target Denby Dale but the Tories seem more likely to hold on there, and Kirkburton is an unusual Tory/Green contest with I suspect the Greens starting as favourites to hold on. Labour have several outside chances of coming through the middle in the closer Con/LD contests but may have to content themselves with just 3 gains though those do look near-certain. Likely result Lab 27 C 19 LD 16 Green 4 Ind 3 therefore NOC NO CHANGE. Another council where realistically Labour will be looking to mount a bid for overall control in 2012 but they may well have to wait until 2014 – or, if the pendulum has started to swing back by then, much later still.
In fact the LDs held both Cleckheaton & Almondbury, but the Tories did gain Colne Valley. Labour failed to take Dewsbury S from the Tories, but took instead Golcar. So Labour did achieve the expected 27 seats but not the same ones, and have a decent chance of winning next year, though it won’t be easy.
Labour would need to gain 8 seats to win overall of Kirklees next year. I don’t know which 8 seats you imaine they might gain Barnaby as I can find only half that number that are realistic targets.
There are plenty of boroughs which provide an opportunity for Labour overall control in 2012 – amongst the Mets I would say Birmingham, Walsall, Rochdale, Bradford, Wirral and even Sefton. Dudley is a longshot. I don’t think Kirklees is amongst their number
Looking more carefully I’d have to agree with you Pete, on second thoughts. Control will have to wait until 2014, or even later if Labour is doing less well in the polls by then.