Hornsey and Wood Green
2010 Results:
Conservative: 9174 (16.67%)
Labour: 18720 (34.01%)
Liberal Democrat: 25595 (46.5%)
Green: 1261 (2.29%)
Independent: 292 (0.53%)
Majority: 6875 (12.49%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 20512 (43.3%)
Labour: 18117 (38.3%)
Conservative: 6014 (12.7%)
Other: 2687 (5.7%)
Majority: 2395 (5.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 6921 (15.7%)
Labour: 21967 (49.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 11353 (25.8%)
Green: 2228 (5.1%)
Other: 1594 (3.6%)
Majority: 10614 (24.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11293 (21.9%)
Labour: 31792 (61.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5794 (11.3%)
Referendum: 808 (1.6%)
Other: 1800 (3.5%)
Majority: 20499 (39.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: The western half of the Borough of Haringey, covering Wood Green, Noel Park, Alexandra Palace, Muswell HIll, Crouch End, Cranley Gardens and Highgate (though the famous cemetery is over the border in Holborn and St Pancras). This is a fashionable and trendy areas for young professionals and the middle class intelligensia, though there are also areas of council housing and a diverse ethnic population, including Jewish, Cypriot and afro-carribean communities.
This was a Conservative seat until 1992 but by 1997 had become what looked like a rock solid Labour seat, with Barbara Roche enjoying a majority of over 20,000. The Liberal Democrat however have surplanted the Conservatives as the alternative to Labour here, both at Parliamentary level where they won the seat in 2005 and local level (Haringey council is split almost straight down the middle in political terms – the western part that forms this seat is solidly Liberal Democrat, the eastern part that forms Tottenham is solidly Labour).
Current MP: Lynne Featherstone(Liberal Democrat) born 1951, London. Educated at South Hampstead High School and Oxford Brookes University. Former design consultant. Haringey councillor 1998-2006, leader of the Lib Dem group 1998-2002. London Assembley member 2000-2005. Contested Hornsey and Wood Green 1997, 2001. First elected as MP for Hornsey and Wood Green 2005. Home affairs spokesman 2005-2006, shadow Liberal Democrat secretary of state for internatonal development 2006-2007, youth and equality spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Richard Merrin (Conservative) Managing director of a PR company.
Karen Jennings (Labour) Former nurse. Head of health at UNISON. Lynne Featherstone(Liberal Democrat) born 1951, London. Educated at South Hampstead High School and Oxford Brookes University. Former design consultant. Haringey councillor 1998-2006, leader of the Lib Dem group 1998-2002. London Assembley member 2000-2005. Contested Hornsey and Wood Green 1997, 2001. First elected as MP for Hornsey and Wood Green 2005. Home affairs spokesman 2005-2006, shadow Liberal Democrat secretary of state for internatonal development 2006-2007, youth and equality spokesman since 2007 (more information at They work for you)
Pete McAskie (Green) Green party management co-ordinator. Contested Tottenham 2005, Enfield and Haringey 2008 London elections.
Stephane de Roche (Independent)Rohen Kapur (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 107034
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 20.2%
Over 60: 13.9%
Born outside UK: 30.7%
White: 76.3%
Black: 11.3%
Asian: 5.8%
Mixed: 4.1%
Other: 2.5%
Christian: 49.3%
Hindu: 1.9%
Jewish: 3.7%
Muslim: 7.2%
Full time students: 6.7%
Graduates 16-74: 47.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 16.9%
Owner-Occupied: 51.4%
Social Housing: 22.6% (Council: 14.5%, Housing Ass.: 8.1%)
Privately Rented: 22.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 10.4%
Is there any reason you expect the tories to do so well here as compared to 2010?
The rise in the Tory vote in 2010 was slightly above the national average which rather surprised me.
I wondered if this was the type of seat which might prefer the Cameron brand of Conservatives, or whether there is an element of gentrification of the kind we are witnessing in Bermondsey and Old Southwark.
Either way, I would expect the most left-leaning of the three major parties to win here – that is Labour at the moment.
I also wonder if there is some potential for the Green Party here, if they got their act together.
A fair amount of the Lib Dem vote in the nicest bit of this seat around Highgate and Muswell Hill is borrowed from the Tories.
You can see that from how well Boris did in those wards this year.
If the Lib Dems drop as sharply in this seat as A Cairns predicts, then we could see quite an increase in the Tory vote here as well as Labour’s.
“I wondered if this was the type of seat which might prefer the Cameron brand of Conservatives, or whether there is an element of gentrification of the kind we are witnessing in Bermondsey and Old Southwark.”
A better and closer example is perhaps Hampstead, and also Richmond, where liberal public sector middle class types have been priced out by higher earning city workers.
I think that’s certainly going to become a factor in Highgate and Muswell Hill and it will hurt the Lib Dems, however away from the nicest areas this seat is Labour leaning which is why they will win it back.
I agree about Highgate but not Muswell Hill.
The reason I was drawn to this seat was because I noticed the BBC’s Norman Smith lives in Muswell Hill.
There’s quite a good case for saying that Muswell Hill could swing the most to Labour and that Labour will have 50-60% councillors here in 2014.
I’m not so sure that Labour will do as well as that in Muswell Hill. As HH said, both MH and Highgate are areas where liberal minded people are being priced out by the city brigade as we have also seen in Hampstead and Richmond. I can quite easily see both of those gained by the Tories at least partially in the 2014 local elections. Labour have far better chances of success in Crouch End, Hornsey and especially Stroud Green. The swing to them in the latter is likely to be particularly fierce.
An increase in the Tory vote is even better news for Labour of course.
(unless there are otherwise large Con>Lab switches)
Having been squeezed out so badly here, perhaps some recovery was inevitable.
Muswell Hill has no tube or rail station – I like the buses but it may possibly put off some people who would commute to the City.
That’s a good point, Joe. One major downside of Muswell Hill is that it is quite difficult to get to from most parts of London. That’s certainly true for those of us who live south of the river such as myself. It’s a shame as I do like the area and the views of London from Alexandra Palace are quite spectacular. It would do definitely benefit from better transport connections but it is very hilly (and pretty steep too) which no doubt impedes any improvements.
Yes, true,
AKMD.
Actually the 43 and 134 are pretty frequent
or you can get out in Highgate which I think has a City branch.
A lot of the richer people working in the City don’t use tubes, trains or buses….they drive themselves or are driven everywhere (not just out of snobbery, but because of their long working hours).
Not that I disagree with your overall point though that Muswell Hill is a bit more mixed than Highgate, but it’s surely going to head in the same direction
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Alexandra: 65.2% / 60.0%
Bounds Green: 44.6% / 29.7%
Crouch End: 66.8% / 61.1%
Fortis Green: 67.2% / 60.3%
Highgate: 66.9% / 59.8%
Hornsey: 56.2% / 49.2%
Muswell Hill: 70.5% / 64.8%
Noel Park: 37.8% / 24.5%
Stroud Green: 56.8% / 52.9%
Woodside: 39.6% / 23.3%
TOTAL: 56.8% / 47.3%
White overall, Hornsey & Wood Green:
2001: 76.3%
2011: 71.3%
There were numerical increases in the white British population in Alexandra, Crouch End, Highgate, Hornsey, Stroud Green.
Which does back up suggestions that the middle class areas of this constituency are regentrifying.
Would that be good or bad news for Lynne Featherstone?
Most of the incomers to these areas are left-leaning and they certainly helped contribute to her majority in 2010. Whether they would still be willing to back her now is another matter. I can see quite a large chunk of this group switching to Labour so she may have to hope she gets tactical votes from the city types that have moved to Highgate and Muswell Hill to compensate.
The changes here, for the most part, are relatively modest, and do, as others here suggest, point to gentrification in parts of the seat.
One would expect to see the Tories move up a bit here – depending on how they are doing nationally –
and Labour challenging strongly for the seat.
I wouldn’t rule out the LDs entirely though.
It could be that Labour take it quite easily though.
“Most of the incomers to these areas are left-leaning”
But hasn’t it been sugested that there are now City people moving here?
Which is why I said “most”. There have been city people moving to Highgate and Muswell Hill which are the nicest parts of the seat but rather less of them in the more mixed areas of Crouch End and Hornsey where incomers are left-leaning. Stroud Green is even more firmly in this latter camp. Tories will have a solid core vote in future elections but it won’t be enough to win.
“Tories will have a solid core vote in future elections but it won’t be enough to win.”
But it will certainly be enough to badly splinter Lynne Featherstone’s vote and let Labour in here next time.
Hornsey used to have the largest CND branch in the country in the 1980′s. The demographic shift in the former Wood Green wards of Woodside, Noel Park and Bounds Green is particularly striking, These wards have much more in common with Tottenham now, whereas they used to be white working class districts. However Stroud Green and Crouch End are surprising in that they have not changed very much.
Property prices are so high in the western wars of the seat, that you have to imagine that graduates and City types are well represented, and that lower paid groups such as health workers and teachers are not coming here.
I am not convinces that this be enough to see the Conservatives recover, but the changes in the Wood Green area could assist Labour against the Lib Dems.
Living in Alexandra ward since 1988 I have seen sudden change in the area. My shopping parade now has 2 galleries, and organic grocers, a knitting shop and a hand painting cafe. All replacing a bookies, a sports bar, a used car shop and a laundrette. Less students in area and lots of yummy mummies. N10/6 going one way N22 the other. Also had so few LD leaflets since May 2010
The Lib Dems may benefit from some of these new residents as those who are more inclined to vote Tory may bite their tongues and vote Lib Dem to ensure they do not end up with a Labour MP. The other side to that will be the longer established media/writer/artist types in Crouch End and bits of Muswell Hill may turn violently to Labour. I certainly think a Tory recovery here is a long way off, if at all. Wood Green is very much a Labour town now and has all the social probelms that go with it so the Tories have no chance of gaining extra votes there. Hornsey itself also looks rather tired these days and will provide Labour with a good deal of support as well.
I think Hornsey has looked “tired” for many years. It has long been popular with students & other younger voters, and those we might term intellectual. It was clearly a Conservative area up to about the mid 60s, marginal until the late 80s, Labour from there until the noughties and LD since. It is likely that Labour will enjoy a large improvement in that part of the constituency, on top of their existing lead in the Wood Green section, but will find it more difficult in more upmarket wards, most notably Highgate & Fortis Green. The outcome will depend on the most mixed wards, which I see as being Alexandra, Crouch End & Muswell Hill, even though the latter has been for time the safest LD ward in the borough.
Long time since I ran the 1990 Haringey elections when 16 Con to 15 Lab.Then Highgate 2 C Archway 1 Lab 1 Con, Muswell 3 C, Fortis 3 C Alex 3 Lab, Bowes 2 c 1 Lab, Woodside 2 C 1 La Noel P 1 C 2 Lab South Hornsey 2 Lab, Hornsey vale 2 Lab Hornsey 2 Lab
David: do you mean you ran one of the party’s campaigns or were you an official in charge of the election process?
Although it was the name of the original borough including Crouch End and Muswell Hill, I’d be hard put to say where the centre of Hornsey actually is, without a map. House prices in MH are astronomical with CE heading that way. I’d have thought there’d been some overspill to “tired” Hornsey.
There isn’t a large town centre area of Hornsey though there is a recognisable minor shopping centre near its station.