Hornchurch and Upminster
2010 Results:
Conservative: 27469 (51.45%)
Labour: 11098 (20.79%)
Liberal Democrat: 7426 (13.91%)
BNP: 3421 (6.41%)
UKIP: 2848 (5.33%)
Green: 542 (1.02%)
Christian: 281 (0.53%)
Independent: 305 (0.57%)
Majority: 16371 (30.66%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 23990 (48.5%)
Labour: 16147 (32.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4305 (8.7%)
BNP: 1634 (3.3%)
Other: 3353 (6.8%)
Majority: 7843 (15.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16820 (48.5%)
Labour: 10778 (31.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 3128 (9%)
BNP: 1174 (3.4%)
Green: 543 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (2%)
Other: 1533 (4.4%)
Majority: 6042 (17.4%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15410 (45.5%)
Labour: 14169 (41.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3183 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1089 (3.2%)
Majority: 1241 (3.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16315 (39.5%)
Labour: 19085 (46.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 3919 (9.5%)
Referendum: 2000 (4.8%)
Majority: 2770 (6.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Angela Watkinson(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
Angela Watkinson(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Kath McGuirk (Labour) Karen Chilvers (Liberal Democrat)Melanie Collins (Green)
Lawrence Webb (UKIP) Contested Hornchurch 2005, London region 2009 European elections. William Whelpley (BNP) Johnson Olukotun (Christian Party) David Durant (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 99357
Male: 47.8%
Female: 52.2%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 24.4%
Born outside UK: 5.2%
White: 95.8%
Black: 1%
Asian: 1.7%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 76.5%
Hindu: 0.8%
Muslim: 0.8%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.9%
Owner-Occupied: 78.1%
Social Housing: 16.2% (Council: 14.7%, Housing Ass.: 1.4%)
Privately Rented: 4.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5%
But when will that be Peter, and who’ll be Labour at the time?
………………….. oops! – I meant Labour “leader” at the this time [next election]
Somewhat revised forecast.
2010
most likely
*Con 29,838 56.5% +8.0%
Lab 14,364 27.2% -5.5%
LD 3,749 7.1% -1.6%
BNP 2,326 4.4% +1.1%
UKIP 1,320 2.5%
Green 1,215 2.3%
Total votes 52,811
C majority 15,474 29.3 % (+13.5%)
Swing 6.8% from Lab to C
C hold
BNP have a small chance of beating the LDs. Labour will be lucky if their vote only drops 5.5% although they have already declined a lot since 2001 and 1997.
I thought the Upminster result in 1979 was the point where you knew the result.
(of the election).
Scotland had declared in a few seats, and I think possibly one or two in the north west, but they were in places one might have expected to do something different.
Obviously I watched the program totally retrospectively but I still felt that Upminster, although it was a larger than the likely average swing, being a rather ordinary place, was the point where it was clear.
Former Upminster MP John Loveridge died fairly recently, this is an obituary which is quite interesting:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/1570711/Sir-John-Loveridge.html
Thanks for this – it is interesting.
The BNP have selected Havering councillor Mark Logan here
Cllr. M.Logan has stood down from the B.N.P and intends to stand as an independent candidate for the council not sure about for parliament(B.N.P. say he was deselected).See Romford Recorder 02/04/10.It seems the finger pointing and name calling begins in earnest.
Cons Hold= 12,000 maj
William Whelpley is the new B.N.P. candidate and
David Durant is once more standing as a Independent.
(local press).
Con Hold
Maj 11 400
Con maj 14,000
BNP: William Whelpley
Source: http://www.havering.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=17483
Con 27000
Lab 11500
BNP 4500
LD 4500
Green 1500
Others 2500
Con Hold 14,000 Labour vote suppressed by a BNP advnace (Hopefully small)
CON HOLD
Con hold maj. 10000 +
This constituency has a bigger Conservative majority than City of Westminster.
Its result makes a nice contrast to that in Ealing North.
I think the Con vote would be about 3% below what it was in 1992 here.
Given that the Tory shares increased in 1987 and 1992, it would probably exceed what it was in 1979.
Which seats contained Upminster from 1885 to 1974? Was it in Hornchurch from 1945 until then?
It was in Romford from 1885-1945 and yes in Hornchurch from then until 1974
Thank you Pete
I used to see Upminster on destination boards when I was about 10 and would wonder where it was.
It was interesting watching this seat early on the 1979 program (replayed)
because it would have been about the time I started to find my way around London.
I read somewhere that Harold Wilson listed this as one of the seats which “got away” in October 1974.
Joe: how old were you when you moved to London?
I think I was only 3,
so effectively London anyway.
Labour managed to win the most votes in two wards in this seat in the local elections: Gooshays and Heaton as this excellent map shows:
htttp://data.london.gov.uk/visualisations/atlas/local-election-2010/atlas.html
Census results, white British 2001 / 2011:
Cranham: 94.8% / 91.3%
Emerson Park: 87.7% / 79.4%
Gooshays: 93.7% / 82.7%
Hacton: 92.8% / 89.4%
Harold Wood: 91.8% / 85.9%
Heaton: 93.4% / 78.8%
St Andrew’s: 93.5% / 88.6%
Upminster: 94.3% / 91.6%
TOTAL: 92.8% / 86.0%
White overall, Romford:
2001: 95.8%
2011: 89.8%
Big drop in the white British population in two wards, Gooshays and Heaton…
That should have been “white overall, Hornchurch & Upminster”.
“Big drop in the white British population in two wards, Gooshays and Heaton…”
A very similar pattern to Borehamwood which is an almost identical type of settlement (I think they were built from the same plan) and the major change is a big increase in the Black African population. I used until a few years ago to go to a dentist in a fairly grotty part of Borehamwood and noticed the African population gradually increasing in ana rea that was almost entirely white 20 years ago. I don’t know if these people are being housed by the council or finding there way into the large numbers of private rented properties that have emerged as a consequence of RTB.
Emerson Park on the other hand, which is the most upmarket ward in this seat, has also seen in a large increase in the non-White population but this overwhelmingly due to an increase in the ethnic Indian population – well to do middle class Hindus mostly. This again is similar to the pattern in Elstree
Pete: did you see my comment about the increase in the still admittedly small black African population in the two Cray Valley wards on the Orpington page?
It’s interesting that black African people are happy to move out to places a long way from central London in a way that black Caribbean people a few decades ago would never have contemplated. Thurrock is possibly another example.
I hadn’t seen that but I had noticed these changes myself from when I was doing my maps. I don’t know of course how many of these people are moving out of central London rather than directly to these places from their original homes in Africa. I suppose numbers of these are asylum seekers and they get housed in all kinds of places, but by definition they will be places with a large amount of social housing
Pete is spot on here. Heaton and Gooshays have seen an increase in the African popn. Personally I think that Inner London councils moved many African families out of Inner London which explains a sharp rise in that particular group in places like Harold Hill, Thurrock, Barking, Dagenham, Borhamwood, Enfield…
I cannot see how people who were living in council places all of a sudden had the money to buy property at all. It looks very suspect to me.
“It’s interesting that black African people are happy to move out to places a long way from central London in a way that black Caribbean people a few decades ago would never have contemplated. Thurrock is possibly another example.”
continued from above….
I think that is due to places in Outer London being seen as more right wing and racist, particularly in the 60s, 70s and early 80s. Africans are by and large a much newer community to the UK and so do not have the same misconceptions about certain areas.
Another interesting point about this particular seat is that having Thurrock next door actually helps to keep this seat heavily White British. Hornchurch and Upminster are by far more upmarket than Grays and Ockendon so for those Thurrock families that can afford it, many choose to move into Havering (as well as Basildon, Castle Point and other places within Essex). This process has probably sped up over the last 5 years or so as many Africans have moved into Thurrock. Therefore we see very high White British figures in this seat while the same group has declined in Thurrock.
Interesting remarks LBernard. Please continue commenting on the other London seats. I’ve almost finished posting the white British census results: I just have Ealing and Hillingdon to do now.