Hexham
2010 Results:
Conservative: 18795 (43.22%)
Labour: 8253 (18.98%)
Liberal Democrat: 13007 (29.91%)
BNP: 1205 (2.77%)
Independent: 2223 (5.11%)
Majority: 5788 (13.31%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 17460 (42.4%)
Labour: 12495 (30.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10588 (25.7%)
Other: 645 (1.6%)
Majority: 4964 (12.1%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 17605 (42.4%)
Labour: 12585 (30.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 10673 (25.7%)
Other: 650 (1.6%)
Majority: 5020 (12.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 18917 (44.6%)
Labour: 16388 (38.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6380 (15%)
UKIP: 728 (1.7%)
Majority: 2529 (6%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17701 (38.8%)
Labour: 17479 (38.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 7959 (17.4%)
Referendum: 1362 (3%)
Other: 1170 (2.6%)
Majority: 222 (0.5%)
Boundary changes: Very minor. Loses a small part of Hartburn ward to Berwick upon Tweed. An interim review is being conducted in this seat and the boundaries may undergo further minor amendments prior to the next election.
Profile: A large rural seat in the North-East, covering Tynedale and part of Castle Morpeth. This is a sparsely populated area at the far north of the country, in the west the seat reaches up into desolate and isolated moorland and forests, stretching up to the Scottish border.
The border location defines much of the historical development of this area, the main towns like Haltwhistle and Hexham follow the line of the old Newcastle-Carlisle road and Hadrian`s Wall which runs through the seat, and Prudhoe, an industrial town producing paper tissues and paint is built around the medieval Prudhoe castle which once guarded the border. As well as the historic towns there are villages like Corbridge, Heddon-on-the-Wall (the centre of the 2001 outbreak of foot and mouth disease) and Stannington. To the East the constitutency takes in the affluent Newcastle suburbs of Ponteland and Darras Hall, where the Liberal Democrats have begun to make inroads.
This is the sole Conservative seat in the Tory desert that is north-east England. In 1997 it almost fell – the Conservative majority over Labour was cut to only 222 vote, but Labour have since fallen back. Peter Atkinson`s predecessor as MP, Alan Amos, was deselected in 1992 after being arrested for indecency on Hampstead Heath – a right wing Tory hanger and flogger, he subsequently defected to the Labour party in 1994.
Current MP: Guy Opperman (Conservative) born 1965. Educated at Harrow School and University of Lille. Barrister. Former Kennett councillor. Contested Swindon North 1997, Caernarfon 2005.
Guy Opperman (Conservative) born 1965. Educated at Harrow School and University of Lille. Barrister. Former Kennett councillor. Contested Swindon North 1997, Caernarfon 2005.
Antoine Tinnion (Labour) born 1970 in Alston, Cumbria. Educated at Newcastle RGS, Oxford University, Cambridge University and Harvard Law School. Barrister based in North East specializing in employment and commercial law. Previously worked as lawyer in London and New York
Andrew Duffield (Liberal Democrat) born 1963. Educated at Durham University. Previously served in the Royal Navy and worked as an NHS manager. Senior manager at Newcastle University. Alnwick District Councillor and Northumberland County Councillor. Contested Hexham in 2005 and Sedgefield in 2001.
Quentin Hawkins (BNP) 
Steven Ford (Independent) Born 1953, Crediton. Educated at Wells Cathedral School and Birmingham University. Retired GP.Colin Moss (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 74385
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 21.3%
Over 60: 24.7%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 81%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 26.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.5%
Owner-Occupied: 72.2%
Social Housing: 13.7% (Council: 7.7%, Housing Ass.: 6%)
Privately Rented: 9.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
The Tories should hold this easily but the only worry for them would be a mammoth collapse of the Labour vote with most of it going to the LDs.
No danger to the Conservatives here. I would expect a change of second place though
CON HOLD
Conservatives have been canvassing strongly in Ponteland. No sign of any of the others. Perhaps the other parties have given up! I would expect Consevatives to win Hexham with Lib Dems second place.
Very little canvassing in Prudhoe, most seem to think that a Conservative victory inevitable and so not worth the effort by Labour or Lib Dems
The historic towns there are villages like Heddon on the Wall/
Sky News were mis-spelling one of the main towns in this seat, Ponteland, as “Pontyland” this morning.
Why has the Conservative vote improved so little here since 1997/2001?
Is there demographic change affecting them?
The trends this time are Labour down 10 with Libs and independant both gaining about five.
Does anybody know enough about the independant to know where those votes might have gone otherwise? Is their vote masking what might have othewise have been an improved tory share or a less bad Labour result with the Tories close to a ceiling for them in this constituency?
The Tories won all the seats in Ponteland and Darras Hall in 2008, but that’s still a fairly small part of the area.
Runnymede Road, Darras Hall.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/flyeye/4135394559/
That seems to look like what it is – a suburban street.
Is there any particular significance Joe?
yes, without seeing the actual houses, it’s not easy to tell how “leafy” the area is.
Well it does look pretty leafy to me and you get the idea that the houses and gardens are spacious otherwise they’d be visible from the road.
By-election at Ponteland East on November 4th.
Ponteland East
Con hold
Con 843
LD 403
Lab 100
I think this seat was last fought in 2008, and
the result is very similar – everyone % up marginally,
as an Independent drops out.
If it’s similar to 2008 that usually means it’s a very good result.
Runneymede road is VERY wealthy. Kind of vulgar new money, you know the type, stone columns at the front of an enormous red brick house where at 10.25am every saturday morning every resident comes out to wash his X5.
http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/11908839?utm_source=nest&utm_medium=feeds&utm_content=11908839&refer=nest11908839
A Typical Example
Thanks – that particular house looks rather brash,
but the area in general and road very pleasant (as far as I can see).
Just had a glossy A3 leaflet from Guy Opperman the new Tory MP delivered at the weekend by a group of Tory teenagers. I think many of the 2010 Tory intake understand the importance of campaigning ‘all year round’ (and of course telling people about it) in a way many of their predecessors never really did. A lesson learn from their coalition partners perhaps but it will certainly be an added dimension to the 2015 campaign.
Just read the MP here is battling a brain tumour. Very sad news.
Jason – yes, he was admitted prior to your post. The only statement I could find is that he hopes to return to Parliament after the Summer recess. I assume another MP is doing his casework?
According to ConservativeHome it was Daniel Poulter, MP for Suffolk Central and Ipswich North (and a doctor), who recognised the symptoms and advised him to get it checked out.
Mr Opperman had successful emergency surgery to remove the non-malignant growth.
According to his blog Guy is out of hospital and resuming work part time, having made a good recovery; we have also recieved an A3 report / leaflet, which is a good way to see what yr MP is doing. He is not yet back in the House of Commons but the Hexham Courant for example ran an article where he commented in detail on the failure of the local council to apply for broadband funding
The Conservative share would be reduced to just 35% on the proposed new boundaries:
Con: 19,181 (35.1%)
LD: 18,072 (33.1%)
Lab: 13,654 (25.0%)
I haven’t yet studied why that is,
perhaps it includes part of Blyth Valley or more likely Morpeth.
In the event, of course, it could be Labour that is more of a threat,
or the division will enable the Tories to hold on.
I believe it is taking part of Blaydon which strikes one as more than a little absurd at first glance. I must admit I haven’t looked in very much detail at the BC’s plans for the NE yet. I wish they ahd released their proposals by one region a month or something as there’s far too much info too digest
It takes 20,432 voters from Blaydon and 5,517 from Berwich.
3 wards from Gateshead goes there: in 2010 locals one was easily won by Labour, while in the other 2 LDs were competitive (won 1 and lost the other by 42 votes). Tories were at 11-12%. Labour easily won all 3 in 2011
Nonsensical proposals here, theres got to be a better way of getting the const. within 5% than this. Better to cross the Cumbria border or head east and let Berwick expand south.
I was having a play with this area last night and its difficult. The problem is that in an ideal world you would have 8 seats covering Northumberland, Newcastle and North Tyneside. The average would be a bit over 73,000 which techncilly works, but is so close to the lower limit that it isn;t possible to create 8 seats that size. Because of the size of wards in the two Met boroughs you end up with a couple of seats with 75,000 or so which pushes the average of the remaining six below the lower threshold. Basically it looks like thanks to the over-strict limits imposed bvy the legislation, crossing the historic border between Durham adn Northumberland is unavoidable. I do wonder though if a better solution might not be to reinstate Tyne Bridge in some form. I will ahev another go at this later, but as I am preparing counter-proposals in a number of regions, this one is not particularly high on my agenda.
IN response to Joe, of course crossing the border with Cumbria is not an option as it is ina different region and regional boundaries are the one thing which cant be crossed
The new boundaries of this seat as proposed are politically disasterous for the Tories.
Given that the new seat is so heavily influenced by parts of Gateshead, perhaps the constituency name should reflect the fact.
It might be amusing in good election years for the Tories to see the word Gateshead in Tory blue!
Gateshead North and Hexham maybe?
‘Given that the new seat is so heavily influenced by parts of Gateshead, perhaps the constituency name should reflect the fact.
It might be amusing in good election years for the Tories to see the word Gateshead in Tory blue!
Gateshead North and Hexham maybe?’
Hexham and Ryton might be a better name.
There appears to be cross party consensus on the boundaries here. The LDs and tories want Ponteland E and Rothbury swapped back to where they should be and Haltwhistle and S Tynedale broughr back in.
The tories and Labour also seem to advocate moving Chopwell and Rowlands Gill to Durham NW.
I’d probably just move Ryton to Gateshead W to avoid tacking a single Gateshead ward to a Durham constituency but I suppose Rowland’s Gill looks towards Consett enough to justify that.
‘Given that the new seat is so heavily influenced by parts of Gateshead, perhaps the constituency name should reflect the fact.
It might be amusing in good election years for the Tories to see the word Gateshead in Tory blue!
Gateshead North and Hexham maybe?’
Hexham and Ryton might be a better name.
There appears to be cross party consensus on the boundaries here. The LDs and tories want Ponteland E and Rothbury swapped back to where they should be and Haltwhistle and S Tynedale brought back in.
The tories and Labour also seem to advocate moving Chopwell and Rowlands Gill to Durham NW.
I’d probably just move Ryton to Gateshead W to avoid tacking a single Gateshead ward to a Durham constituency but I suppose Rowland’s Gill looks towards Consett enough to justify that.
Rowlands Gill is very County Durham in character and shouldnt be out of place in a Durham constituancy, being historically a County Durham village south of Gateshead
The MP Guy Opperman is now clearly recovered – he is never out of the Journal, and the boundary changes are likely to be modified to retain the southern parts of Northumberland so I would still expect this to be a seat he can hold given his work rate. I accept that I am a soft C conservative but I like his commitment
Had there been a by-election here in the 70s or 80s, this constituency might now have a Liberal Democrat MP. They came as close as they probably ever will at the election just gone, and that may have been their best chance. Now it will be about who gets second place in 2015.
A very energetic MP by all accounts but on those new boundaries it would be a hell of a fight to hold on. It’s worth bearing in mind the Tories haven’t managed 45% of the vote here since 92′ so it’s far from safe even on current boundaries. The question is how strong are the opposition, the LIb Dems did well in 2010 and the Unitary Elections here in 2013 will be a good indicator of how things are playing out at the moment
Look like the MP here got what he wanted from the press coverage of the Boundary changes. On the current boundaries this looks to stay safely Tory and the new boundaries while worse (and may never see the light of day of course) maybe hurting the Tory Majoirty by 2-3000 votes long term.
I think Labour will go second in 2015 but not within striking range.
My prediction for 2015-
Opperman (Conservative)- 18, 844, 43.1%, -0.1%)
Labour- 13, 695 (31.3%, +12.3%)
Liberal Democrat- 7, 745 (17.7%, -12.2%)
Others- 3, 367 (7.7%, -0.2%)
Turnout- 43, 651.
Majority- 5, 149 (11.7%)
Tory vote here will increase. Personal vote is a big factor here (look at the change from 05 to 10 here)
Guy Oppermann is popular with the locals, tory vote should be 45-46 in this seat in 2015.
I’m not so sure. Peter Atkinson only managed over 50% once (That was 1992). After that, he never got 45 or 46%- I personally would expect Opperman to poll more votes than he got first time around and for him to stay around the 43% mark.
The Results- fair point but Atkinson’s tenure did coincide with an absolutely dire electoral period for the Conservative party. Had he stood in 2010, I think he’d have got 45% or 46% without a problem. If the Tory national share stays above 35% or so, I can see Opperman getting the same kind of result in 2015.
What happened when Alan Amos stood in 1987 was notable- The Tory vote share dropped below 50% even though Amos polled more votes than Rippon had managed in 1983. A vastly increased turnout in line with the national picture in 1987 meant that although the majority stayed near enough where it was in 1983, there was a 1.0% swing to the Liberals.
County Council elections here next year will tell us a lot. Liberal Democrats hold 3 seats – 2 of which could be Tory and 1 Labour. Will be interesting to see what they can hang on to, noone, I don’t think, is predicting any LD gains.
It’s interesting that this seat & its neighbour Penrith & the Border both have new Tory MPs who seem to be amongst the least right-wing in the whole parliamentary party. I wonder if one can distinguish this MP’s voting record from that of Rory Stewart. Probably they are politically very similar to each other. Opperman has described himself as “rather on the left of the Conservative Party”. It’s also noteworthy that 2 previous MPs here have rather shifted their political positions; Geoffrey Rippon was a Monday Clubber who appears to have transmogrified into a dripping wet anti-Thatcherite by the end of his time in parliament (he retired in 1987 I think), and of course Alan Amos who appeared to be a solid Thatcherite when he was first elected (he only served one term after his well-publicized incident) ended up in the Labour Party.
Did Amos vote in favour of Section 28? If so he must rate as one of the Tory hypocrites from around that time.
Amos I believe was kicked out by the constituency party in Hexham due largely to the reputation he had forged for himself. Indeed, if one looks at Peter Atkinson’s result in 1992, the people of Hexham clearly preferred him to Amos.
HH – I wondered that too. The LD PPC did well here as did the Ind.